Game Analysis
Lean – Kansas City (-7) over MIAMI
Kansas City’s offense was held to just 22 points last week (lowest of the season) because they came away with zero touchdowns from four trips to the redzone, which is not likely to be repeated in this game. Patrick Mahomes is averaging a yard per pass play more against the blitz this season than a standard pass rush and the Dolphins blitz on 41% of opponents’ dropbacks, which is the most in the NFL. Nickelback Nik Needham is clearly the weakest of Miami’s three starting cornerbacks and Tyreek Hill is running more than half his routes from the slot. Travis Kelce had 136 yards, seven first downs, and a touchdown last Sunday night, but Pro Bowl TE could be held in check this week against a Dolphins defense allowing less than 40 yards per game to opposing tight ends.
Tua Tagovailoa has completed just three of his 14 passing attempts targeted 20 yards or more downfield and Miami’s offense doesn’t pose the same deep threat with the rookie under center as when Ryan Fitzpatrick is at the helm. Tagovailoa is averaging just 5.7 yppp this season while Fitzpatrick is averaging 6.9 yppp. Our metrics have Tagovailoa as a point and a half downgrade from Fitzpatrick and it’s pretty clear playing Fitzpatrick is the best move for the Dolphins’ playoff push while giving Tagovailoa reps is best for their long term future.
Our model favors the Chiefs by 7.3 points, with a predicted total of 50.2 points, but the matchups are significantly in the Chiefs favor.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
40.5
36.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
56.4%
47.0%
-
Sack Rate
3.5%
4.9%
-
Int Rate
0.4%
3.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.7%
19.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.3%
34.6%
-
NYPP
7.7
6.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.4
27.4
-
RB YPR
3.9
4.5
-
Stuff Rate
20.6%
10.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
50.2%
56.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
40.0%
36.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.2
4.8
Game
-
All Snaps
65.9
63.7
-
Early Down Succ
55.5%
53.9%
-
Succ Rate
53.8%
51.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
41.5%
37.2%
-
Yards Per Play
6.4
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.0
28.2
-
Run Ratio
38.4%
42.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.6
25.5
-
Game Control
5.1
-5.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.5
37.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
55.4%
46.9%
-
Sack Rate
5.3%
8.0%
-
Int Rate
2.1%
3.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.4%
18.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
25.5%
37.3%
-
NYPP
6.8
6.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.8
25.5
-
RB YPR
3.4
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
19.7%
16.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.2%
53.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
35.4%
49.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.7
4.6
Game
-
All Snaps
61.3
63.4
-
Early Down Succ
57.1%
52.8%
-
Succ Rate
52.7%
48.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
29.0%
43.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.4
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.1
28.1
-
Run Ratio
44.5%
40.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.6
25.8
-
Game Control
4.9
-4.9
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
HOU |
34 – 20 W |
8.0 |
66.7% /
55.6% |
3.0% /
11.1% |
0.0% /
3.1% |
6.2 /
6.7 |
47.1% /
59.1% |
20.6% /
9.1% |
4.9 /
5.4 |
67 /
58 |
56.6% /
59.6% |
56.7% /
56.9% |
19.0% /
33.3% |
5.5 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.7% /
37.9% |
37.2 /
22.3 |
| 2 |
@LAC |
23 – 20 W |
-5.4 |
41.7% /
51.4% |
2.1% /
5.7% |
0.0% /
3.0% |
6.0 /
8.5 |
54.5% /
63.6% |
9.1% /
13.6% |
5.7 /
4.2 |
70 /
79 |
44.4% /
61.9% |
45.7% /
58.2% |
41.8% /
32.6% |
5.9 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.4% /
55.7% |
22.3 /
21.7 |
| 3 |
@BAL |
34 – 20 W |
8.9 |
69.0% /
34.4% |
0.0% /
12.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.2 /
2.2 |
48.4% /
66.7% |
25.8% /
0.0% |
4.3 /
7.5 |
73 /
53 |
58.6% /
52.4% |
60.3% /
47.2% |
41.6% /
41.2% |
7.1 /
4.3 |
1.4% /
1.9% |
42.5% /
39.6% |
27.5 /
29.4 |
| 4 |
NE |
26 – 10 W |
5.5 |
53.3% /
38.5% |
3.3% /
5.1% |
0.0% /
8.1% |
7.6 /
4.4 |
36.0% /
48.6% |
12.0% /
8.6% |
3.8 /
5.3 |
55 /
74 |
50.0% /
42.9% |
45.5% /
43.2% |
47.7% /
37.5% |
5.9 /
4.8 |
1.8% /
1.4% |
45.5% /
47.3% |
26.4 /
23.9 |
| 5 |
LV |
32 – 40 L |
-0.7 |
39.1% /
50.0% |
6.5% /
3.1% |
2.3% /
3.2% |
7.2 /
10.8 |
55.0% /
62.9% |
25.0% /
11.4% |
4.0 /
4.1 |
66 /
67 |
44.0% /
59.2% |
43.9% /
56.7% |
50.4% /
62.9% |
6.3 /
7.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
30.3% /
52.2% |
25.8 /
29.8 |
| 6 |
@BUF |
26 – 17 W |
3.6 |
59.3% /
44.4% |
3.7% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
3.7% |
8.2 /
4.5 |
67.4% /
56.5% |
17.4% /
17.4% |
5.3 /
3.7 |
73 /
50 |
65.5% /
51.2% |
64.4% /
50.0% |
44.8% /
21.8% |
6.4 /
4.1 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
63.0% /
46.0% |
21.8 /
27.4 |
| 7 |
@DEN |
43 – 16 W |
13.9 |
51.7% /
37.2% |
13.8% /
7.0% |
0.0% /
5.0% |
6.4 /
5.4 |
36.4% /
66.7% |
18.2% /
15.2% |
4.6 /
5.4 |
51 /
76 |
56.1% /
55.0% |
45.1% /
50.0% |
50.0% /
38.0% |
5.6 /
5.4 |
2.0% /
2.6% |
43.1% /
43.4% |
43.1 /
25.1 |
| 8 |
NYJ |
35 – 9 W |
13.1 |
63.8% /
35.5% |
0.0% /
3.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.5 /
4.1 |
40.0% /
52.0% |
30.0% /
12.0% |
2.5 /
3.7 |
67 /
56 |
58.8% /
48.8% |
56.7% /
42.9% |
38.7% /
12.2% |
7.4 /
3.9 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
29.9% /
44.6% |
28.8 /
25.5 |
| 9 |
CAR |
33 – 31 W |
-1.0 |
54.3% /
48.1% |
2.2% /
3.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.0 /
6.4 |
50.0% /
54.2% |
33.3% /
16.7% |
2.5 /
4.3 |
58 /
76 |
52.2% /
50.0% |
53.4% /
50.0% |
52.9% /
37.5% |
6.8 /
5.7 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
20.7% /
31.6% |
36.2 /
24.9 |
| 11 |
@LV |
35 – 31 W |
-1.6 |
67.4% /
67.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
2.2% /
3.2% |
7.7 /
8.9 |
63.0% /
42.3% |
14.8% /
15.4% |
4.0 /
3.4 |
73 /
57 |
68.3% /
55.3% |
65.8% /
56.1% |
19.3% /
36.3% |
6.3 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.0% /
45.6% |
22.4 /
25.8 |
| 12 |
@TB |
27 – 24 W |
11.5 |
53.8% /
54.8% |
3.8% /
2.4% |
0.0% /
4.9% |
8.8 /
8.1 |
55.0% /
46.2% |
20.0% /
0.0% |
4.4 /
5.8 |
72 /
55 |
55.9% /
56.8% |
54.2% /
52.7% |
50.5% /
56.1% |
7.5 /
7.6 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
27.8% /
23.6% |
22.7 /
24.3 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@NE |
11 – 21 L |
-5.7 |
51.6% /
61.9% |
3.2% /
9.5% |
10.0% /
0.0% |
5.9 /
6.7 |
51.9% /
66.7% |
18.5% /
11.9% |
3.2 /
5.2 |
58 /
63 |
55.6% /
68.6% |
51.7% /
65.1% |
23.4% /
33.1% |
4.6 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
46.6% /
66.7% |
20.8 /
29.4 |
| 2 |
BUF |
28 – 31 L |
-4.2 |
48.0% /
61.1% |
6.0% /
2.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.2 /
11.5 |
63.6% /
39.1% |
18.2% /
17.4% |
4.5 /
4.8 |
72 /
59 |
56.9% /
55.3% |
52.8% /
52.5% |
29.5% /
70.0% |
5.7 /
8.9 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
30.6% /
39.0% |
26.9 /
20.4 |
| 3 |
@JAC |
31 – 13 W |
12.9 |
66.7% /
54.3% |
4.8% /
8.7% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
7.4 /
5.3 |
47.2% /
52.9% |
27.8% /
5.9% |
3.8 /
4.2 |
57 /
63 |
54.8% /
62.0% |
54.4% /
54.0% |
31.0% /
19.2% |
5.2 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
63.2% /
27.0% |
35.8 /
23.5 |
| 4 |
SEA |
23 – 31 L |
-6.0 |
56.5% /
63.9% |
2.2% /
5.6% |
4.4% /
2.9% |
6.8 /
9.5 |
59.1% /
61.5% |
13.6% /
11.5% |
4.7 /
3.8 |
68 /
62 |
58.2% /
71.4% |
57.4% /
62.9% |
21.4% /
49.4% |
6.1 /
7.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.4% /
41.9% |
23.2 /
31.6 |
| 5 |
@SF |
43 – 17 W |
16.4 |
60.0% /
30.0% |
6.7% /
12.5% |
0.0% /
5.7% |
11.4 /
3.2 |
39.4% /
78.9% |
36.4% /
15.8% |
2.8 /
6.9 |
63 /
59 |
53.2% /
53.2% |
49.2% /
45.8% |
64.2% /
26.3% |
6.9 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
52.4% /
32.2% |
39.0 /
26.5 |
| 8 |
LA |
28 – 17 W |
9.2 |
43.5% /
46.0% |
4.3% /
3.2% |
0.0% /
3.3% |
3.9 /
5.4 |
40.0% /
65.5% |
24.0% /
13.8% |
2.2 /
4.5 |
48 /
92 |
48.6% /
56.2% |
41.7% /
52.2% |
0.0% /
21.0% |
3.0 /
5.1 |
4.2% /
2.2% |
52.1% /
31.5% |
34.6 /
28.2 |
| 9 |
@ARI |
34 – 31 W |
1.5 |
54.8% /
63.0% |
9.7% /
3.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.1 /
9.8 |
56.0% /
45.9% |
16.0% /
10.8% |
3.6 /
4.8 |
56 /
64 |
60.0% /
55.1% |
55.4% /
53.1% |
22.8% /
43.4% |
5.6 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
44.6% /
57.8% |
26.3 /
22.7 |
| 6 |
NYJ |
24 – 0 W |
15.8 |
54.8% /
31.9% |
6.5% /
6.4% |
6.9% /
2.3% |
6.2 /
3.1 |
56.0% /
54.5% |
12.0% /
27.3% |
4.4 /
5.2 |
56 /
69 |
63.8% /
44.9% |
55.4% /
39.1% |
36.4% /
69.2% |
5.4 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.6% /
31.9% |
37.1 /
18.7 |
| 12 |
@NYJ |
20 – 3 W |
6.6 |
51.2% /
30.0% |
9.3% /
10.0% |
0.0% /
7.4% |
5.6 /
5.8 |
60.0% /
21.7% |
16.0% /
13.0% |
4.2 /
3.8 |
68 /
53 |
56.9% /
28.2% |
54.4% /
26.4% |
25.2% /
51.9% |
5.1 /
4.9 |
2.9% /
0.0% |
36.8% /
43.4% |
25.5 /
32.5 |
| 13 |
CIN |
19 – 7 W |
2.7 |
66.7% /
27.3% |
0.0% /
18.2% |
0.0% /
7.4% |
7.6 /
4.7 |
39.3% /
47.1% |
14.3% /
35.3% |
3.9 /
2.4 |
67 /
50 |
63.0% /
33.3% |
55.2% /
34.0% |
36.5% /
53.1% |
6.1 /
3.9 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
41.8% /
34.0% |
26.3 /
24.2 |
Kansas City Chiefs
@ 
Miami Dolphins