Kansas City Chiefs @

Miami Dolphins

Sun, Dec 13
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 165
Odds: Miami Dolphins +7, Total: 50.5

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

Lean – Kansas City (-7) over MIAMI

Kansas City’s offense was held to just 22 points last week (lowest of the season) because they came away with zero touchdowns from four trips to the redzone, which is not likely to be repeated in this game. Patrick Mahomes is averaging a yard per pass play more against the blitz this season than a standard pass rush and the Dolphins blitz on 41% of opponents’ dropbacks, which is the most in the NFL. Nickelback Nik Needham is clearly the weakest of Miami’s three starting cornerbacks and Tyreek Hill is running more than half his routes from the slot. Travis Kelce had 136 yards, seven first downs, and a touchdown last Sunday night, but Pro Bowl TE could be held in check this week against a Dolphins defense allowing less than 40 yards per game to opposing tight ends.

Tua Tagovailoa has completed just three of his 14 passing attempts targeted 20 yards or more downfield and Miami’s offense doesn’t pose the same deep threat with the rookie under center as when Ryan Fitzpatrick is at the helm. Tagovailoa is averaging just 5.7 yppp this season while Fitzpatrick is averaging 6.9 yppp. Our metrics have Tagovailoa as a point and a half downgrade from Fitzpatrick and it’s pretty clear playing Fitzpatrick is the best move for the Dolphins’ playoff push while giving Tagovailoa reps is best for their long term future.

Our model favors the Chiefs by 7.3 points, with a predicted total of 50.2 points, but the matchups are significantly in the Chiefs favor.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Chiefs
  • Dolphins
KC
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 40.5 36.4
  • Succ Pass Plays 56.4% 47.0%
  • Sack Rate 3.5% 4.9%
  • Int Rate 0.4% 3.1%
  • Deep Pass Rate 15.7% 19.4%
  • Big Pass Yards 38.3% 34.6%
  • NYPP 7.7 6.4



Rush


  • Rush Plays 25.4 27.4
  • RB YPR 3.9 4.5
  • Stuff Rate 20.6% 10.8%
  • Succ Rush Plays 50.2% 56.2%
  • Big Rush Yards 40.0% 36.2%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.2 4.8




Game

  • All Snaps 65.9 63.7
  • Early Down Succ 55.5% 53.9%
  • Succ Rate 53.8% 51.3%
  • Big Yards Rate 41.5% 37.2%
  • Yards Per Play 6.4 5.6
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 0.7%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.0 28.2
  • Run Ratio 38.4% 42.5%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.6 25.5
  • Game Control 5.1 -5.1
 
  • Points 31.6 21.6
Share This