Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Kansas City (-6.5 -120) over LA CHARGERS

1-Star Best Bet – *Over (41)

• This game will be defined by the players on the sideline because the Chargers will be without 4 former first round picks.
• Los Angeles safety Derwin James was suspended one game for violating the NFL’s safety rule and edge rusher Joey Bosa is officially ruled out for Sunday’s game due to a hip injury. The two have combined for 7 Pro Bowls and are two of the three most valuable players on the defense according to our numbers.
• The Chargers only have a 25.0% pressure rate this season (30th) with Bosa and I expect Patrick Mahomes to have plenty of time to operate with Bosa not on the field.
• The Chargers defense will also likely be without starting nickelback Ja’Sir Taylor, which is a disaster in this matchup as Chiefs slot WR Rashee Rice has a league-high 8 forced missed tackles and leads the NFL with 200 yards after catch this year.
• Kansas City’s offense will be able to set up the deep ball in this game by forcing the Los Angeles defense into single-high looks with the ground game. The Chiefs have a 52% rush success rate (2nd) and the Chargers allowing -0.26 EPA/rush (4th).
• The other two first round picks sidelined for the Chargers are both starting tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt. Slater is conceding just a 4.3% pressure rate in his career compared to his replacement Jamaree Salyer allowing a 6.5% career pressure rate at guard. Trey Pipkins will likely slide out to left tackle. Alt’s backup at right tackle Foster Sarell will struggle against edge defender George Karlaftis, who has 12 pressures (16th).
• Justin Herbert, who is going to play on his gimpy ankle, does get some relief though with Kansas City edge rusher Mike Danna ruled out due to a calf injury. Danna has an 8.0% pressure rate while Chiefs backup edge defender Felix Anudike-Uzomah has just a 4.8% pressure rate. Danna is also Kansas City’s best run defending edge, and he is worth 0.3 points by our metrics.
• Our model favors the Chiefs by 11.6 points, with a predicted total of 45.7 points.

Kansas City is a 1-Star Best Bet at -7 -115 or better and the Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 41.5 or less (Strong Opinion at 42).