Game Analysis
LOS ANGELESÂ CHARGERSÂ (-3.5) vs Kansas City
In week 1 at New England last season, the Chiefs held the Patriots to 3.5 yards per rush and Rob Gronkowski had just 2 catches for 33 yards, but star safety Eric Berry was lost for the season at the end of that game. Kansas City’s defense went on to finish 31st against the run and was one of four teams to allow more than 8 yards per target to opposing tight ends. The return of Berry can’t be overstated for this defense, but the Chiefs will be without edge rusher Tamba Hali and linebacker Derrick Johnson for the first time in more than a decade. Hali will be replaced internally by 2014 first-round pick Dee Ford and Anthony Hitchens was brought in to play inside linebacker. Hitchens is an upgrade in rush defense, ranking 5th in run stop percentage while Johnson ranked 92nd, but a drop-off in coverage as Hitchens ranked 29th amongst linebackers in yards allowed per cover snap while Johnson was the best in the league last season. The Chiefs will significantly downgrade at the cornerback position with the loss of Marcus Peters to the Rams. Peters was responsible for the most interceptions in the NFL the last two seasons and a suitable replacement will not be easy to find. However, Kansas City’s secondary did add Kendall Fuller in the Alex Smith trade and he ranked 3rd in yards allowed per cover snap from the slot last year.
The Chiefs’ defense will line up across from Philip Rivers, who threw more yards and touchdowns under pressure than any quarterback last season. Rivers should enjoy better this season with the addition of Mike Pouncey, who has allowed just one sack in his last 25 games. The Chargers also add 2017 second-round guard Forest Lamp to the offensive line after he missed his entire rookie season. The rest of Los Angeles’s offense will remain mostly unchanged, which isn’t the case for Kansas City.
The Chiefs move from a mature quarterback that protects the ball (Alex Smith) to a young gunslinger that sometimes trusts his arm more than he should (like Jay Cutler). Patrick Mahomes only has one career start, in week 17 last season, but his performance in that small sample ranked 11th in quarterback points added per play just in front of Matt Ryan and Jared Goff. I expect there to be some growing pains, but Andy Reid tends to make his quarterbacks better and there’s certainly optimism surrounding Mahomes for 2018. Kansas City added WR Sammy Watkins, who has averaged 15.9 yards per catch and 8.8 yards per target in his 4 years in the league. Watkins played his first 3 seasons with conservative QB Tyrod Taylor in Buffalo and he didn’t connect well down the field last season with Jared Goff, as he saw 16 deep ball targets last year and caught the only three deemed catchable by Pro Football Focus. Mahomes’s vertical style could unlock the skillset that made Watkins the 4th-overall pick and they’re hoping that Watkins produces like he did in 2015 when he totaled 1047 receiving yards and averaged 11.0 yards per target. Mahomes should also be a good fit with Tyreek Hill, who caught 54% of his deep ball targets last year, and Travis Kelce, who led all tight ends with 9 deep ball catches. Alex Smith’s deep passing ability was certainly underrated but Mahomes should thrive in that regard this season. However, avoiding interceptions the way Smith has done throughout his career will be a challenge for the first-year starter.
Kareem Hunt looks primed for a solid sophomore campaign after finishing second to Todd Gurley in points added per rush according to our numbers. Andy Reid’s offenses in his five years with the Chiefs bounce back-and-forth between average and good finishing 7th, 16th, 7th, 17th, and 5th according to our end-of-season ratings. The trend looks like it’s going to continue as we project the Chiefs offense to regress back around average for 2018, but they certainly have the potential to be a top unit if Mahomes can successfully play vertically without turning the ball too often.
The Chiefs offense’s first test will come against a Chargers defense whose story can be told through their best two players, the edge rushers. Melvin Ingram finished 52nd in run stop percentage (min 100 snaps) and Joey Bosa missed 9 tackles against opposing running backs, tied for the 5th-most, leading Los Angeles to a ranking of 28th against the run last year according to our metrics. Meanwhile, Ingram and Bosa combined for 151 quarterback pressures, ranking 5th and 7th respectively, which is a major reason why the Chargers surrendered just 5.6 yards per pass play (6th). The pass defense is further aided by excellent cornerback play, with both Casey Hayward and Trevor Williams finishing in the top 20 of yards allowed per cover snap and Desmond King ranking 8th in yards allowed per cover snap in the slot.
My ratings don’t show any value in this game (the model has Chargers by 3.5 points), but Los Angeles applies to a 71-43-3 ATS week 1 contrary indicator and I’d lean with the Chargers at -3 points (-110 odds).
- Team Stats
- Game Log
- Chiefs
- Chargers
Pass
- Pass Plays 36.2 37.2
- Succ Pass Plays 46.9% 45.6%
- Sack Rate 6.9% 5.1%
- Int Rate 1.3% 2.8%
- Deep Pass Rate 18.3% 23.9%
- Big Pass Yards 44.6% 42.3%
- NYPP 7.1 6.7
Rush
- Rush Plays 25.5 28.9
- RB YPR 4.4 4.1
- Stuff Rate 22.9% 21.1%
- Succ Rush Plays 43.6% 51.1%
- Big Rush Yards 52.0% 46.0%
- Yards Per Rush 4.7 4.5
Game
- All Snaps 61.7 66.1
- Early Down Succ 48.6% 50.7%
- Succ Rate 45.5% 47.7%
- Big Yards Rate 47.5% 43.8%
- Yards Per Play 6.1 5.6
- Fumble Lost Rate 0.3% 1.1%
- Time Per Play (sec) 29.8 27.0
- Run Ratio 40.5% 43.2%
- Starting Field Pos 28.8 25.9
- Game Control 3.0 -3.0
- Points 25.6 21.2