Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (+3) over Kansas City

The Chiefs basically played the Eagles to a stalemate last week after a very impressive week 1 performance in New England. Philadelphia outgained Kansas City but was only able to score touchdowns on 2 of their 5 trips to the Redzone. The Kansas City offense has ranked in the top 10 both weeks thus far according to my numbers and much of that success is due to the deep ball. However, contrary to popular belief, Alex Smith hasn’t been much more aggressive than usual this season (14th in attempts of more than 20 yards) – but he has been very accurate and leads the league in deep passing yards.

The Chargers somehow found a way to lose another close game despite out-gaining the Dolphins by almost 2 yards per play. Philip Rivers looked good coming off a tough week 1 matchup in Denver, shredding the Dolphins for nearly 8 yards per pass play. The Los Angeles run game remains a problem, as my numbers have the Chargers rushing offense ranked 30th and Melvin Gordon can’t seem to get it going despite his head coach, Anthony Lynn, being a former NFL running back and a running backs coach for the previous 13 years of his career.

The Chargers have been much better than their record since the beginning of last season, as they’re actually an average team that has been unlucky to lose nearly every close game that they’re in. That can’t go on forever and I see a bit of value with the Chargers at +3 or more.

Team Stats
Game Log

Chiefs
Chargers

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 35.0 45.5
Succ Pass Plays 55.3% 38.8%
Sack Rate 10.2% 9.6%
Int Rate 0.0% 1.1%
Deep Pass Rate 15.8% 34.5%
Big Pass Yards 42.3% 47.1%
NYPP 8.3 6.0

Rush

Rush Plays 26.0 26.5
RB YPR 5.9 3.8
Stuff Rate 17.7% 21.3%
Succ Rush Plays 44.9% 54.4%
Big Rush Yards 64.2% 55.3%
Yards Per Rush 5.8 4.9

Game

All Snaps 61.0 72.0
Early Down Succ 57.4% 46.4%
Succ Rate 50.6% 44.6%
Big Yards Rate 49.5% 48.6%
Yards Per Play 7.2 5.4
Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.7%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.7 25.5
Run Ratio 41.9% 36.3%
Starting Field Pos 30.6 26.9
Game Control 0.1 -0.1

Points 34.5 23.5

LAC

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 37.0 34.0
Succ Pass Plays 54.8% 47.2%
Sack Rate 2.7% 9.0%
Int Rate 1.5% 1.8%
Deep Pass Rate 9.7% 20.4%
Big Pass Yards 20.8% 51.4%
NYPP 6.8 6.0

Rush

Rush Plays 18.0 35.0
RB YPR 3.1 3.6
Stuff Rate 40.9% 24.6%
Succ Rush Plays 27.9% 38.5%
Big Rush Yards 66.3% 32.4%
Yards Per Rush 3.0 3.6

Game

All Snaps 55.0 69.0
Early Down Succ 50.8% 43.8%
Succ Rate 46.5% 42.8%
Big Yards Rate 28.2% 43.3%
Yards Per Play 5.6 4.8
Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.7%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.7 29.3
Run Ratio 32.6% 50.7%
Starting Field Pos 28.3 29.1
Game Control -2.3 2.3

Points 19.0 21.5

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NE	42 – 27 W	-1.8	60.5% / 33.3%	7.9% / 7.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.3 / 6.3	42.4% / 50.0%	9.1% / 25.0%	5.7 / 3.5	71 / 75	63.5% / 46.4%	52.1% / 41.3%	53.7% / 54.8%	7.6 / 5.0	1.4% / 0.0%	46.5% / 48.0%	25.5 / 27.8
2	PHI	27 – 20 W	2.0	50.0% / 44.2%	12.5% / 11.5%	0.0% / 2.2%	7.3 / 5.8	47.4% / 58.8%	26.3% / 17.6%	5.9 / 6.3	51 / 69	51.3% / 46.3%	49.0% / 47.8%	45.3% / 42.4%	6.7 / 5.9	0.0% / 1.4%	37.3% / 24.6%	35.6 / 26.1

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@DEN	21 – 24 L	-6.6	47.1% / 50.0%	2.9% / 12.5%	3.0% / 3.6%	5.4 / 5.7	27.3% / 40.5%	31.8% / 18.9%	2.9 / 3.8	56 / 69	42.9% / 44.2%	39.3% / 44.9%	27.7% / 47.8%	4.4 / 4.7	0.0% / 1.4%	39.3% / 53.6%	31.6 / 31.8
2	MIA	17 – 19 L	2.0	62.5% / 44.4%	2.5% / 5.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.1 / 6.3	28.6% / 36.4%	50.0% / 30.3%	3.1 / 3.4	54 / 69	58.7% / 43.4%	53.7% / 40.6%	28.6% / 38.9%	6.8 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	25.9% / 47.8%	24.9 / 26.4

Kansas City Chiefs @

Los Angeles Chargers

Sun, Sep 24

1:25 PM Pacific

Game Analysis