Game Analysis

Lean – LAS VEGAS (+9) over Kansas City

· The story of the season for Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City’s offense has been dropped passes from the receivers. The Chiefs had 5 drops last week, including a game-changing one from WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling that would have given the Chiefs the lead with less than two minutes remaining. I think this Las Vegas defense provides the Chiefs a solid opportunity to rebound.

· The Raiders are allowing a 58% success rate to tight ends (25th) and they will struggle versus TE Travis Kelce, who is averaging 0.41 EPA/target (3rd).

· Kansas City WR Rashee Rice is averaging 0.43 EPA/target (17th) and he has a favorable matchup on the inside against Nate Hobbs, who is allowing 1.73 yards per cover snap in the slot ranking 27th out of 28 qualifying nickelbacks.

· Las Vegas interim head coach Antonio Pierce likes to pound the rock and Josh Jacobs has averaged 22.3 carries per game in the last three weeks. The Chiefs are allowing 0.02 EPA/rush (31st) and they will surrender yardage to Jacobs on the ground.

· Jacobs will also be a threat as a receiver as the Raiders have a 50% success rate on screens (5th) and Kansas City’s defense is without starting LB Nick Bolton.

· Las Vegas will likely have left tackle Kolton Miller back in uniform this week after he missed the Dolphins game. Miller is allowing a 3.8% pressure rate compared to the rotating cast at right tackle Jermaine Eluemunor and Thayer Munford, who are combining to surrender a 7.8% pressure rate. Chiefs’ edge defender George Karlaftis ranks 6th in pass-rushing efficiency and he will have a favorable matchup mostly lining up across from the right tackles.

· Raiders RG Greg Van Roten ranks 12th in pass-blocking efficiency, and he will limit interior defender Chris Jones, who has 36 pressures (7th).

· Kansas City CB L’Jarius Sneed is allowing 0.72 yards per cover snap (13th) and he will likely shadow WR Davante Adams, who is averaging 2.01 yards per route run (18th).

· Aidan O’Connell will instead find Las Vegas WR Jakobi Meyers, who has a 61% success rate (9th).

· Our model favors the Chiefs by 7.4 points with a predicted total of 42.8 points.