Game Analysis

Lean – HOUSTON (+14) over Kansas City

· Davis Mills and Jeff Driskel split the offensive snaps under center for the Texans last week. I think we can expect Houston’s offense to be the rare dual quarterback system again in this game.

· Mills averaged 8.3 yppp against the Cowboys and Driskel mostly was a runner with 7 carries for 36 yards, but he also threw for a touchdown.

· WR Chris Moore leads the Texans with 0.26 EPA/target so having one of Brandin Cooks or Nico Collins out is okay but both starting wide receivers out means we get more of backup Phillip Dorsett, who has just a 41% success rate.

· Kansas City rookie Jaylen Watson 59th in coverage grade by PFF out of 69 qualifying CBs and he could get burned by Moore.

· Houston running back Dameon Pierce suffered a high ankle sprain that will keep the rookie from playing this week. It could be a loss in the ground game as Pierce is averaging 0.09 more forced missed tackles per carry than Rex Burkhead.

· However, Burkhead already has 29 receptions this season (20th) and the Chiefs are allowing 6.3 yards per target to running backs (28th).

· Houston’s quarterbacks will need to get the ball out fast as DT Chris Jones ranks 3rd in pass rushing efficiency and the Texans interior offensive line is horrible, surrendering more than a sack per game.

· Kansas City’s tackles have allowed 81 pressures this season and Patrick Mahomes will not have time in the pocket with Houston edge defender Jerry Hughes bearing down on him. Hughes ranks 7th in pass rushing efficiency.

· Texans nickelback Tavierre Thomas is conceding only 0.47 yards per slot cover snap, and he will make it arduous on the inside for WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, who has a 64% success rate (2nd).

· Our model favors the Chiefs by just 12.4 points, with a predicted total of 48.2 points, and double-digit home underdogs are 56.7% ATS going back more than 40 years, including 17-9-1 ATS the last 3 seasons (3-0 this season).