Game Analysis

Kansas City (-6) vs GREEN BAY

· Green Bay came out of Detroit with a win on Thanksgiving despite missing starting CB Jaire Alexander, starting LB De’Vondre Campbell, and starting RB Aaron Jones. It wasn’t a fluke, as the Packers outgained the Lions by 1.1 yards per play.

· Green Bay WR Christian Watson had a season-high 94 yards last week, but he will be shut down on Sunday night by CB L’Jarius Sneed, whose 9 forced incompletions rank 9th.

· Jordan Love has been limiting mistakes for the entire 2023 season with a 2.4% PFF turnover-worthy play rate (3rd-fewest) and he showed an ability to thread passes in tight with a career-high 36% of throws charted as having a perfect ball location last game.

· I expect Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to force Love into being perfect again with an aggressive scheme assuming his accuracy will regress. Kansas City’s defense has a 28.4% man-coverage rate (9th-highest) and Love will likely struggle, as his yards per attempt against man is only 65% his yards per attempt versus zone coverage (31st).

· The Packers will need WR Jayden Reed to beat his man on the inside. Reed is averaging 1.73 yards per route run in the slot (8th) and he will line up across from nickelback Trent McDuffie, who is being targeted every 5.9 slot cover snaps (8th-most frequent).

· The Chiefs’ pass rush is spurred on by edge defender George Karlaftis and interior defender Chris Jones, who have 84 combined pressures this season. However, Green Bay’s offensive line should be able to contain Karlaftis and Jones with RG Jon Runyan and RT Zach Tom, who both rank 15th in pass-blocking efficiency at their respective positions.

· Kansas City’s defense ranks 31st in EPA/rush allowed but the absence of Aaron Jones will be felt as Packers’ backup running back AJ Dillon is averaging career lows with 3.5 yards per carry and a 10% missed forced tackle rate. Dillon will not be able to get explosive rushes to get the Chiefs’ defense out of light boxes.

· Patrick Mahomes is averaging a career-low 7.2 air yards per attempt and Kansas City’s wide receivers have 20 drops (3rd-most).

· Chiefs’ rookie WR Rashee Rice set career highs with 107 yards and 10 targets last game, but he doesn’t solve the lack of downfield passing for the offense. Rice’s 5.5-yard average depth of target ranks 99th out of 102 qualifying wide receivers.

· Mahomes might not need his wide receivers much in this game as Green Bay’s defense is surrendering a 59% success rate to tight ends (28th) and TE Travis Kelce is averaging 0.44 EPA/target (3rd).

· Packers’ interior defender Kenny Clark ranks 11th in pass-rushing efficiency but he will be shut down as only 37% of Kansas City’s pressures this season have been at fault of the interior offensive line (3rd-lowest rate).

· Our model favors the Chiefs by 6.0 points, with a predicted total of 42.2 points. I used Green Bay in my pool based on a 113-54-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation that applies to the Packers.