Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *First Half Over (22.5 -120) – Kansas City vs Denver

Strong Opinion – Kansas City (-4 -105)

• Patrick Mahomes is averaging 0.30 EPA/play since week 7 (3rd) when WR Rashee Rice came off suspension.
• This will be the first game of the season that Kansas City’s offense will have all 11 starters on the field, with LT Josh Simmons coming back. Simmons ranks 20th in pass blocking efficiency, and he will limit Denver edge defender Nik Bonitto, who has 46 pressures (5th).
• Overall, the Chiefs rank 2nd in pass blocking efficiency, and they will neutralize the Broncos’ pass rush with a 43% pressure rate (2nd).
• Kansas City center Creed Humphrey’s 0.8% pressure rate allowed leads all offensive linemen, and he will call out Denver’s blitzes on Sunday. The Broncos have a 42% blitz rate (4th-highest), and Mahomes ranks 10th relatively versus the blitz.
• Mahomes will have time in the pocket to look downfield and attack Denver backup cornerback Kris Abrams-Draine, who is surrendering 3.4 more yards per target than Pat Surtain.
• The first half over is better in this game because of key numbers. Full game 43 and 44 capture 7.7% of outcomes by our numbers, while 45 and 46 capture just 5.3% of outcomes. Meanwhile, first-half 21 and 22 capture only 4.9% of outcomes, while halftime 23 and 24 capture 14.5% of outcomes.
• I think the Bo Nix early game struggles compared to the fourth quarter are more noise than signal. Nix had a 47.0% success rate in the first half of games last season compared to a 43.9% success rate in the second half. If anything, Broncos head coach Sean Payton might emphasize a fast start for his offense more so in this game, given the troubles they’ve had out of the gates in 2025.
• Our model favors the Chiefs by 8.0 points, with a predicted total of 49.3 points.

The First-half Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 22.5 -125 odds or better. If you have higher than -125 odds (or 23) then play the game over (44.5) at 45 or less.

Kansas City is a Strong Opinion at -4.5 or less.