Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – DENVER (+4.5) over Kansas City

Kansas City’s offense is averaging nearly 40 points per game, gaining 6.9 yards per play (2nd), and the Chiefs rank first in early down efficiency. However, there is reason to believe that they won’t be as productive in this game, at least on the ground. The Chiefs have been quite predictable on outside runs this season with 27 carries to the right side compared to just 3 to the left. Von Miller will be waiting for them if they continue running to the right side and I expect him to be successful as Miller is not just an elite pass rusher, recording a 9.3% run stop rate last season (6th), but he’s also very good against the run. The Broncos had the best rush defense in our 2017 ratings and rank in the top 10 again this year. We should see Mahomes air-it-out in the altitude with Miller and the rest of Denver’s defense shutting down Kansas City’s ground game.

Broncos’ quarterback Case Keenum has thrown more than 20% of his passes into tight coverage (defender within 1 yard) and it has resulted in a 4.6% interception rate, the 3rd-highest in the league. The Chiefs have just one interception this year and allow 7.4 yards per pass play (26th), but their secondary will see a boost if Eric Berry is able to make his season debut on Monday night (he’s questionable as of Thursday afternoon). Furthermore, Kansas City is in talks to trade for Earl Thomas, who is one of the most valuable safeties in the league along with Berry. The Chiefs grade as our 29th-best defense, but a healthy Berry and potential addition of Thomas would go a long way to improve their chances of winning the AFC. However, our model only favors Kansas City by 2.6 points even with Mahomes being as good as he’s been. And, Monday night home underdogs coming home after a road game the previous week are still good bets as long as they are a decent team. In fact, Monday Night home dogs with a win percentage of .334 or higher are 47-18 ATS if they played on the road last week. I’ll lean with Denver plus the points.

Team Stats
Game Log

Chiefs
Broncos

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 32.3 49.0
Succ Pass Plays 56.8% 50.2%
Sack Rate 4.0% 5.1%
Int Rate 0.0% 0.7%
Deep Pass Rate 28.5% 21.6%
Big Pass Yards 54.7% 39.9%
NYPP 9.3 7.3

Rush

Rush Plays 28.0 21.3
RB YPR 3.7 4.7
Stuff Rate 19.1% 21.8%
Succ Rush Plays 50.1% 49.8%
Big Rush Yards 38.8% 32.4%
Yards Per Rush 3.8 4.8

Game

All Snaps 60.3 70.3
Early Down Succ 57.1% 54.3%
Succ Rate 53.8% 51.0%
Big Yards Rate 50.1% 41.0%
Yards Per Play 6.7 6.7
Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 0.5%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.8 27.5
Run Ratio 46.7% 31.1%
Starting Field Pos 28.7 21.6
Game Control 11.0 -11.0

Points 39.3 30.7

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@LAC	38 – 28 W	9.6	46.4% / 55.8%	3.6% / 1.9%	0.0% / 2.0%	9.1 / 8.0	59.3% / 59.1%	25.9% / 18.2%	3.9 / 5.6	55 / 74	55.6% / 61.3%	52.7% / 56.8%	66.0% / 45.1%	6.6 / 7.3	0.0% / 1.4%	49.1% / 29.7%	29.1 / 20.1
2	@PIT	42 – 37 W	9.7	69.0% / 50.8%	3.4% / 1.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	11.1 / 7.2	44.4% / 38.5%	14.8% / 23.1%	4.8 / 2.5	56 / 74	63.8% / 51.7%	57.1% / 48.6%	56.1% / 35.2%	8.1 / 6.4	1.8% / 0.0%	48.2% / 17.6%	30.3 / 21.8
3	SF	38 – 27 W	13.8	55.0% / 44.1%	5.0% / 11.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.7 / 6.7	46.7% / 51.7%	16.7% / 24.1%	2.6 / 6.1	70 / 63	51.9% / 50.0%	51.4% / 47.6%	28.2% / 42.9%	5.5 / 6.4	0.0% / 0.0%	42.9% / 46.0%	26.8 / 22.8

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	SEA	27 – 24 W	1.9	57.5% / 35.9%	2.5% / 15.4%	7.7% / 6.1%	8.1 / 6.2	50.0% / 18.8%	21.9% / 25.0%	4.6 / 4.0	72 / 55	58.3% / 34.9%	54.2% / 30.9%	53.2% / 63.7%	6.5 / 5.6	0.0% / 1.8%	44.4% / 29.1%	26.6 / 27.4
2	OAK	20 – 19 W	-6.1	36.1% / 72.7%	2.8% / 3.0%	2.9% / 0.0%	6.0 / 8.5	57.1% / 44.4%	17.9% / 18.5%	6.0 / 3.4	64 / 60	42.6% / 67.3%	45.3% / 60.0%	57.7% / 41.3%	6.0 / 6.2	0.0% / 0.0%	43.8% / 45.0%	25.7 / 23.9
3	@BAL	14 – 27 L	-4.7	45.9% / 48.8%	8.1% / 4.9%	2.9% / 0.0%	4.7 / 6.5	45.8% / 32.3%	33.3% / 19.4%	5.0 / 2.6	61 / 72	47.8% / 43.1%	45.9% / 41.7%	39.9% / 33.9%	4.8 / 4.8	0.0% / 0.0%	39.3% / 43.1%	33.4 / 27.2

Kansas City Chiefs @

Denver Broncos

Mon, Oct 1

5:15 PM Pacific

Game Analysis