Game Analysis

Kansas City (-2) vs BUFFALO

• The Bills have beaten the Chiefs in the last four regular-season games, and Kansas City has beaten Buffalo in the four playoff games.
• Neither team has been favored by more than a field goal in any of the games since 2021.
• We think the Chiefs are rightly favored here, and this is the highest total we’ve seen in this matchup since 2022 because the middle of the Bills’ defensive line is vulnerable, likely without Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones. The cluster loss is worth 1.4 points by our numbers.
• Oliver and Jones have a combined 13.4% pressure rate, while backups Deone Walker and TJ Sanders have a combined 8.8% pressure rate.
• Kansas City backup RG Mike Caliendo surrendered 5 pressures last week, forcing Patrick Mahomes to improvise, but starter Trey Smith will likely be back on the field for this game. Smith ranks 6th in pass blocking efficiency.
• Our model favors the Chiefs by 1.2 points, with a predicted total of 53.5 points.