Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Over (46) – Kansas City at BUFFALO

Lean – Kansas City (+2)

• Kansas City’s ground game is going to effortlessly move the ball on Sunday. The Chiefs have a 46% rush success rate (2nd) and the Bills are surrendering 4.9 yards per rush (30th).
• Kansas City’s offense took half of their drives into the red zone last week but only one of four trips resulted in a touchdown.
• The Chiefs have had 39% of drives reach the red zone (5th) but scored a touchdown on 54% of their red zone trips this year (17th). I expect Kansas City’s offense to finish more drives as the Chiefs average red zone scoring rate since Patrick Mahomes took over as the starter is 63%.
• Buffalo’s offense will be without RT Spencer Brown and TE Dalton Kincaid, who is averaging 1.60 yards per route run (9th). However, the Bills are getting back WR Amari Cooper, who averaged 9.8 yards per target in two games for Buffalo’s offense before missing the last two weeks.
• The Chiefs are conceding -0.18 EPA/rush (4th) and 0.04 EPA/dropback (13th). I believe the Bills will lean on Josh Allen attacking downfield against Kansas City backup cornerback Nazeeh Johnson.
• Our model favors the Chiefs by 0.7 points, with a predicted total of 50.3 points, and Patrick Mahomes is 15-4 straight up and 17-2 ATS from -2 to underdog.

The Over is a Strong Opinion at 46.5 points or less.