Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

Strong Opinion – UNDER (55.5) – BALTIMORE vs Kansas City (-3.5)

The Chiefs were 3.5-point underdogs in September of last year at Baltimore. After a season’s worth of games, this line was around pick all summer. Now we are seeing Kansas City -3.5 due to a flurry of injuries on the Ravens side of the ball and an uninspiring week 1 performance.

However, the Ravens led the Raiders 14-0 before collapsing which I believe was at least in part due to the time zone disadvantage. It is much better for a player’s internal clock in the second half to be at 7pm than 10pm for peak performance. West coast teams are now 64% ATS against east coast teams on Sunday/Monday night football since 1989.

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens will be salivating about getting this Chiefs secondary in the open field. CB L’Jarius Sneed, S Juan Thornhill and S Daniel Sorenson combined to miss 9 tackles against Cleveland. However, Kansas City is likely to get All-Pro safety Tyrann Mathieu back in the lineup this week. The Ravens, meanwhile, are preparing to be without LT Ronnie Stanley according to reports, which is a significant blow to their offensive line.

Patrick Mahomes is averaging 8.1 yppp in three matchups against the Ravens because it is difficult to run a man blitz scheme against the Chiefs’ speed. Although, I think Mahomes is more vulnerable than usual behind an inexperienced offensive line, as we saw in the last year’s SuperBowl. Kansas City ranked 22nd in pass blocking efficiency in week 1 and RT Lucas Niang, who surrendered 5 pressures last week, is unlikely to stay in front of edge defender Justin Houston.

Our model favors the Chiefs by 3.4 points with a predicted total of 51.5 points the total was just 54.5 points last season when these teams met and both offensive lines are noticeably worse now. The Under is a Strong Opinion at 55 points or more.

Team Stats
Game Log

Chiefs
Ravens

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 38.0 30.0
Succ Pass Plays 60.5% 60.0%
Sack Rate 5.3% 6.7%
Int Rate 0.0% 3.6%
Deep Pass Rate 20.0% 28.6%
Big Pass Yards 44.2% 50.5%
NYPP 8.9 10.7

Rush

Rush Plays 23.0 25.0
RB YPR 2.7 6.1
Stuff Rate 21.7% 8.0%
Succ Rush Plays 56.5% 76.0%
Big Rush Yards 0.0% 43.8%
Yards Per Rush 3.2 6.1

Game

All Snaps 61.0 55.0
Early Down Succ 57.4% 72.7%
Succ Rate 59.0% 67.3%
Big Yards Rate 36.3% 48.3%
Yards Per Play 6.7 8.6
Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 1.8%
Time Per Play (sec) 32.2 29.8
Run Ratio 37.7% 45.5%
Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
Game Control -5.3 5.3

Points 33.0 29.0

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	CLV	33 – 29 W	-5.3	60.5% / 60.0%	5.3% / 6.7%	0.0% / 3.6%	8.9 / 10.7	56.5% / 76.0%	21.7% / 8.0%	3.2 / 6.1	61 / 55	57.4% / 72.7%	59.0% / 67.3%	36.3% / 48.3%	6.7 / 8.6	0.0% / 1.8%	37.7% / 45.5%	0.0 / 0.0

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@LV	27 – 33 L	4.7	42.4% / 50.8%	9.1% / 5.1%	0.0% / 1.8%	7.1 / 7.4	38.2% / 38.1%	23.5% / 47.6%	5.6 / 3.9	67 / 80	43.4% / 50.0%	40.3% / 47.5%	59.2% / 48.5%	6.3 / 6.5	3.0% / 0.0%	50.7% / 26.3%	0.0 / 0.0

Kansas City Chiefs @

Baltimore Ravens

Sun, Sep 19

9:00 PM Pacific

Game Analysis