Kansas City Chiefs @

Baltimore Ravens

Sun, Sep 19
9:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 295
Odds: Baltimore Ravens +3.5, Total: 55.5

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – UNDER (55.5) – BALTIMORE vs Kansas City (-3.5)

The Chiefs were 3.5-point underdogs in September of last year at Baltimore. After a season’s worth of games, this line was around pick all summer. Now we are seeing Kansas City -3.5 due to a flurry of injuries on the Ravens side of the ball and an uninspiring week 1 performance.

However, the Ravens led the Raiders 14-0 before collapsing which I believe was at least in part due to the time zone disadvantage. It is much better for a player’s internal clock in the second half to be at 7pm than 10pm for peak performance. West coast teams are now 64% ATS against east coast teams on Sunday/Monday night football since 1989.

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens will be salivating about getting this Chiefs secondary in the open field. CB L’Jarius Sneed, S Juan Thornhill and S Daniel Sorenson combined to miss 9 tackles against Cleveland. However, Kansas City is likely to get All-Pro safety Tyrann Mathieu back in the lineup this week. The Ravens, meanwhile, are preparing to be without LT Ronnie Stanley according to reports, which is a significant blow to their offensive line.

Patrick Mahomes is averaging 8.1 yppp in three matchups against the Ravens because it is difficult to run a man blitz scheme against the Chiefs’ speed. Although, I think Mahomes is more vulnerable than usual behind an inexperienced offensive line, as we saw in the last year’s SuperBowl. Kansas City ranked 22nd in pass blocking efficiency in week 1 and RT Lucas Niang, who surrendered 5 pressures last week, is unlikely to stay in front of edge defender Justin Houston.

Our model favors the Chiefs by 3.4 points with a predicted total of 51.5 points the total was just 54.5 points last season when these teams met and both offensive lines are noticeably worse now. The Under is a Strong Opinion at 55 points or more.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Chiefs
  • Ravens


  • Pass Plays 38.0 30.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 60.5% 60.0%
  • Sack Rate 5.3% 6.7%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 3.6%
  • Deep Pass Rate 20.0% 28.6%
  • Big Pass Yards 44.2% 50.5%
  • NYPP 8.9 10.7


  • Rush Plays 23.0 25.0
  • RB YPR 2.7 6.1
  • Stuff Rate 21.7% 8.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 56.5% 76.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 0.0% 43.8%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.2 6.1


  • All Snaps 61.0 55.0
  • Early Down Succ 57.4% 72.7%
  • Succ Rate 59.0% 67.3%
  • Big Yards Rate 36.3% 48.3%
  • Yards Per Play 6.7 8.6
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 1.8%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 32.2 29.8
  • Run Ratio 37.7% 45.5%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
  • Game Control -5.3 5.3
  • Points 33.0 29.0
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