Game Analysis

Lean – Jacksonville (-6.5) over TENNESSEE

Lean – Under (41.5)

• The Jaguars should be getting a few players back on the field this week. WR Brian Thomas and nickelback Jourdan Lewis have been out since week 9, but both are trending towards suiting up on Sunday. Additionally, starting RT Anton Harrison will likely be back after missing two games. Thomas, Lewis, and Harrison are each worth a half point according to our metrics. In the aggregate, this has a tangible effect on Jacksonville’s win probability.
• Tennessee’s offense scored 24 points last week, but Cam Ward still struggled as he averaged only 5.0 yards per pass play. The talk of his improvement is being slightly overblown.
• Jaguars edge rusher Josh Hines-Allen now has 3.5 sacks over his last four games, and he has a favorable matchup across from banged-up LT Dan Moore, who has surrendered 31 pressures (9th-most).
• Our model makes Jacksonville a 9.5-point favorite with a predicted total of 41.0 points and this game applies to a 119-65-4 Under situation.