Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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TENNESSEE (-7.5) vs Jacksonville

The Titans squeaked out a win in week 1 but the offense was certainly less than impressive in gaining just 4.8 yards per play. Through one game, I appear to be correct in my prediction Derrick Henry will come back down to earth in 2020. Running backs with 300 attempts in the previous season have average 0.7 fewer yards per rush the following year and Henry was pedestrian in week 1. Per NextGenStats , Henry had 150 expected rush yards in Week 1, the 2nd-most by any RB in a game since 2018 and under-performed his expectation by 36 yards, the 10th-worst game mark by a RB in the last 3 seasons. However, Jacksonville’s rush defense ranked 30th last season so Henry has a favorable matchup this week.

Gardner Minshew was 19 for 20 in week 1 and led the league in completion percentage above expectation but averaged a modest 6.3 yards per pass play in the ball-control pass attack. Jadeveon Clowney did not make much of an impact in his Titans debut recording only 2 pressures and the rest of Tennessee’s pass rush is replacement-level so Minshew should have time in the pocket on Sunday.

Minshew will also benefit from the absence of Adoree’ Jackson. Jackson is the best Titans cornerback by far, surrendering just 0.85 yards per cover snap last year (11th) while all of Tennessee’s other cornerbacks combined to concede 1.26 yards per cover snap. The Titans were a half yard per pass play worse in the 5 games Jackson missed during the regular season, not including week 17 versus Houston’s backups, and Drew Lock averaged 6.6 yppp against Tennessee’s secondary without Jackson last week.

Still, the Jaguars likely won’t benefit from a +2 turnover margin like they did in week 1 and our model favors the Titans by just 7.1 points, with a predicted total of 43.1 points. However, the Jags’ upset win sets them up in a negative 28-80-1 ATS letdown situation this week. I’ll pass.

Team Stats
Game Log

Jaguars
Titans

JAC

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 35.5 36.0
Succ Pass Plays 61.0% 57.7%
Sack Rate 10.5% 3.1%
Int Rate 2.2% 2.2%
Deep Pass Rate 10.5% 13.9%
Big Pass Yards 31.3% 28.2%
NYPP 6.5 8.4

Rush

Rush Plays 25.0 28.0
RB YPR 5.0 3.7
Stuff Rate 12.4% 21.0%
Succ Rush Plays 49.2% 44.7%
Big Rush Yards 46.9% 32.9%
Yards Per Rush 5.0 3.8

Game

All Snaps 60.5 64.0
Early Down Succ 54.4% 55.1%
Succ Rate 55.3% 52.6%
Big Yards Rate 36.7% 29.5%
Yards Per Play 5.8 6.2
Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 30.5 28.0
Run Ratio 42.7% 44.8%
Starting Field Pos 24.8 31.2
Game Control -5.3 5.3

Points 28.5 26.5

TEN

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 34.5 40.0
Succ Pass Plays 59.5% 54.0%
Sack Rate 3.1% 2.1%
Int Rate 0.0% 2.2%
Deep Pass Rate 9.6% 18.9%
Big Pass Yards 26.8% 32.4%
NYPP 7.4 6.6

Rush

Rush Plays 34.0 26.5
RB YPR 3.6 5.4
Stuff Rate 17.6% 19.1%
Succ Rush Plays 52.9% 58.5%
Big Rush Yards 33.2% 50.1%
Yards Per Rush 3.7 5.1

Game

All Snaps 68.5 66.5
Early Down Succ 57.8% 56.5%
Succ Rate 56.2% 56.0%
Big Yards Rate 29.0% 38.5%
Yards Per Play 5.4 6.0
Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.8%
Time Per Play (sec) 26.0 27.6
Run Ratio 50.6% 40.3%
Starting Field Pos 28.4 22.7
Game Control 3.8 -3.8

Points 24.5 22.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	IND	27 – 20 W	-2.5	62.5% / 55.3%	16.7% / 2.1%	0.0% / 4.3%	6.3 / 7.6	39.1% / 36.4%	17.4% / 27.3%	4.0 / 4.0	47 / 69	52.8% / 53.7%	51.1% / 49.3%	34.9% / 30.1%	5.1 / 6.4	0.0% / 0.0%	48.9% / 31.9%	31.0 / 27.0
2	@TEN	30 – 33 L	-8.0	59.6% / 60.0%	4.3% / 4.0%	4.4% / 0.0%	6.7 / 9.2	59.3% / 52.9%	7.4% / 14.7%	6.1 / 3.6	74 / 59	55.9% / 56.5%	59.5% / 55.9%	38.5% / 28.8%	6.5 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	36.5% / 57.6%	18.6 / 35.3

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@DEN	16 – 14 W	-0.4	59.1% / 48.5%	2.3% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.6 / 6.5	52.9% / 57.7%	20.6% / 30.8%	3.8 / 4.1	78 / 59	59.0% / 57.1%	56.4% / 52.5%	29.2% / 38.4%	4.8 / 5.5	0.0% / 1.7%	43.6% / 44.1%	21.4 / 26.9
2	JAC	33 – 30 W	8.0	60.0% / 59.6%	4.0% / 4.3%	0.0% / 4.4%	9.2 / 6.7	52.9% / 59.3%	14.7% / 7.4%	3.6 / 6.1	59 / 74	56.5% / 55.9%	55.9% / 59.5%	28.8% / 38.5%	6.0 / 6.5	0.0% / 0.0%	57.6% / 36.5%	35.3 / 18.6

Jacksonville Jaguars @

Tennessee Titans

Sun, Sep 20

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis