Game Analysis

TAMPA BAY vs Jacksonville (-1)

· Trevor Lawrence is now expected to play and they’ll need him to throw it well given that Tampa Bay’s defense is conceding -0.16 EPA/rush (6th).

· Etienne is averaging 0.15 EPA/target (2nd) but the screens won’t be there for the Jags as the Buccaneers are conceding a 36% pass success rate to running backs (6th).

· Lawrence will also be challenged to get the ball downfield with Jaguars wide receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones out. Kirk and Jones account for 47% of Jacksonville’s targets with 20+ air yards.

· Tampa Bay’s defense is surrendering 0.27 EPA/target to tight ends (25th) and Lawrence will be constantly looking for Jaguars TE Evan Engram, who is averaging 1.46 yards per route run (9th).

· Baker Mayfield threw for 361 yards against zone coverage last week in Green Bay and he’ll get plenty of zone looks again on Sunday as Jacksonville’s defense has an 85.2% zone coverage rate (4th-highest).

· Buccaneers’ RB Rachaad White had only 98 receiving yards in the first 5 games of the season but he is averaging 41.2 receiving yards per game since then and White has 34 receptions versus zone this year (5th) compared to 0 receptions against man coverage.

· Jaguars edge rusher Josh Allen has 13.5 sacks (5th) but he will be shut down by LT Tristan Wirfs, who ranks 6th in pass blocking efficiency.

· Tampa Bay WR Mike Evans is averaging 0.42 EPA/target (11th) but Jacksonville’s defense will likely have back starting CB Tyson Campbell to line up across from Evans rather than backup CB Montaric Brown, who is surrendering a league-high 1.66 yards per cover snap.

· Our model favors the Jaguars by 0.7 points, with a predicted total of 43.5 points with Lawrence playing.