Game Analysis
*SAN FRANCISCO (+4) over Jacksonville
Lean – Over (42)
Jimmy Garoppolo’s 8.0 yards per pass play this season is nearly a half-yard better than any other quarterback with at least 100 attempts. In fact, Garappolo is playing so well that my model would rate the 49ers as the best offense in the NFL if I expected him to continue playing at the same level he has throughout his career thus far – and he’s actually played better in his 3 starts with the 49ers than he did in his two wins with the Patriots. In a conservative measure I will rate Garappolo at a more reasonable level, although I may look back and realize that he really is as good as he’s shown. With less than the full adjustment I make Garappolo about 6 points better than his predecessors, C.J. Beathard and Brian Hoyer. Garoppolo will get a major test this week as he will face one of the best pass defenses we’ve seen in the modern era while being without a key offensive lineman. The Jaguars surrender just 4.6 yards per pass play, lower than any team this decade, and the 49ers will be without Trent Brown in this game. Brown conceded just 16 pressures all season (5th best in the league) and his absence will leave the door open for Jacksonville’s defensive front and their 10% sack rate, which is the highest since 2008. But, pressure hasn’t affected Garappolo at all so he’s consistently burned teams trying to blitz him and he knows where to go with the football if there is pressure.
Blake Bortles has been red-hot this month, averaging 9.6 yards per pass play, but he’s not likely to maintain that level of play – even facing San Francisco’s 26th-ranked pass defense. In fact, Bortles put up those gaudy statistics against defenses even worse than the 49ers. Bortles played three home games against Houston and Indianapolis, ranking 30th and 32nd respectively in yards allowed per pass play, as well as a depleted Seattle defense without Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, Bobby Wagner, and K.J. Wright. Bortles will likely regress back to his usual self and the Jaguars will go back to their ground game as they are still on pace to finish with the highest rushing rate of any team in the last 3 years.
San Francisco’s rush defense is much improved since Reuben Foster’s return from injury, ranking 4th in the second half of the season compared to 22nd in the first 8 weeks according to my numbers. Foster is 2nd on the 49ers in tackles despite playing less than 8 games and the 49ers have been nearly 0.5 yards per play better on defense with Foster healthy and they match up well against a run-heavy Jacksonville offense.
My predictive ratings would only favor Jacksonville by 4 ½ points using stats from the entire season and I get Niners by 1 ½ points with Garoppolo at quarterback even without fully adjusting for how well he’s played so far in his career (the only other active quarterback that won his first 5 starters is Ben Roethlisberger and Garoppolo’s stats in his 5 starters are much better than Big Ben’s first 5 starts). I also adjusted for Brown being out and didn’t fully adjust for how much better the Niners’ defense has been with Foster. In addition to the line value, San Francisco applies to a 47-14-1 ATS last home game underdog situation and Jacksonville may not be ready for a road trip across the country after 3 cushy home games. Teams that played their last 3 games at home, won their previous two straight up, and played well (i.e. covered the spread) in their most recent game are just 2-17 ATS as road favorites of more than 3 points. Also, week 16 underdogs of 2 points or more are 60% the last 20 years. The 49ers are actually a better than average team right now and they shouldn’t be getting points at home. I’ll take San Francisco in a 1-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and I’ll also lean over the total.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.1
36.1
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.2%
36.7%
-
Sack Rate
4.5%
9.8%
-
Int Rate
1.8%
4.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.7%
22.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
33.4%
45.7%
-
NYPP
6.8
4.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
35.0
26.0
-
RB YPR
4.0
4.1
-
Stuff Rate
22.5%
23.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.3%
47.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
45.7%
35.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.4
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
68.1
62.1
-
Early Down Succ
45.7%
45.5%
-
Succ Rate
43.0%
41.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.7%
43.5%
-
Yards Per Play
5.4
4.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
1.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.0
27.5
-
Run Ratio
51.6%
42.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.8
26.7
-
Game Control
6.4
-6.4
Pass
-
Pass Plays
41.6
34.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
41.8%
48.1%
-
Sack Rate
7.0%
4.9%
-
Int Rate
2.4%
1.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.0%
19.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
37.2%
38.9%
-
NYPP
6.0
6.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.1
32.8
-
RB YPR
3.9
3.4
-
Stuff Rate
26.7%
24.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.0%
41.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
45.9%
40.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
3.6
Game
-
All Snaps
66.7
67.4
-
Early Down Succ
44.6%
46.9%
-
Succ Rate
41.9%
45.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
41.8%
39.6%
-
Yards Per Play
5.1
5.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.4
28.7
-
Run Ratio
37.6%
48.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.6
29.1
-
Game Control
-5.1
5.1
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@HOU |
30 – 7 W |
11.9 |
52.4% /
34.8% |
0.0% /
21.7% |
0.0% /
2.8% |
6.0 /
2.4 |
41.5% /
60.9% |
17.1% /
17.4% |
3.8 /
4.0 |
62 /
69 |
53.3% /
44.6% |
45.2% /
43.5% |
32.6% /
12.8% |
4.5 /
2.9 |
0.0% /
4.3% |
66.1% /
33.3% |
38.2 /
26.5 |
| 2 |
TEN |
16 – 37 L |
-7.9 |
41.7% /
42.9% |
5.6% /
3.6% |
5.9% /
3.7% |
5.9 /
7.5 |
64.0% /
68.4% |
12.0% /
10.5% |
4.0 /
4.8 |
61 /
66 |
52.1% /
64.0% |
50.8% /
57.6% |
23.5% /
41.6% |
5.1 /
5.9 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
41.0% /
57.6% |
23.4 /
39.9 |
| 3 |
BAL |
44 – 7 W |
23.9 |
54.5% /
24.1% |
0.0% /
6.9% |
0.0% /
7.4% |
7.4 /
1.8 |
31.6% /
56.0% |
10.5% /
20.0% |
4.4 /
5.4 |
71 /
54 |
48.1% /
42.9% |
42.3% /
38.9% |
35.8% /
39.2% |
5.8 /
3.4 |
0.0% /
1.9% |
53.5% /
46.3% |
38.5 /
24.1 |
| 4 |
@NYJ |
20 – 23 L |
-2.3 |
30.6% /
44.4% |
2.8% /
13.9% |
2.9% /
3.2% |
3.8 /
6.0 |
57.5% /
31.3% |
20.0% /
43.8% |
4.4 /
8.0 |
76 /
68 |
50.8% /
37.3% |
44.7% /
38.2% |
27.6% /
68.6% |
4.1 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
52.6% /
47.1% |
27.0 /
29.5 |
| 5 |
@PIT |
30 – 9 W |
4.5 |
37.5% /
42.9% |
12.5% /
3.6% |
7.1% /
9.3% |
5.1 /
5.4 |
40.5% /
40.0% |
24.3% /
35.0% |
6.2 /
3.5 |
53 /
76 |
36.6% /
41.0% |
39.6% /
42.1% |
60.1% /
44.5% |
5.9 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
69.8% /
26.3% |
26.4 /
21.8 |
| 6 |
LA |
17 – 27 L |
-5.1 |
37.5% /
37.5% |
12.5% /
12.5% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
5.5 /
4.5 |
42.3% /
64.7% |
30.8% /
20.6% |
6.5 /
4.2 |
66 /
58 |
42.0% /
65.9% |
39.4% /
53.4% |
54.2% /
35.5% |
5.9 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
39.4% /
58.6% |
25.3 /
30.5 |
| 7 |
@IND |
27 – 0 W |
18.7 |
53.6% /
34.0% |
3.6% /
21.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
11.8 /
2.9 |
44.7% /
60.0% |
21.1% /
20.0% |
5.0 /
4.8 |
66 /
67 |
49.0% /
46.9% |
48.5% /
41.8% |
61.8% /
41.4% |
7.9 /
3.5 |
3.0% /
0.0% |
57.6% /
29.9% |
20.1 /
28.0 |
| 9 |
CIN |
23 – 7 W |
7.2 |
55.3% /
30.0% |
0.0% /
10.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.8 /
6.0 |
41.5% /
15.8% |
12.2% /
21.1% |
3.7 /
1.6 |
79 /
39 |
44.1% /
29.6% |
48.1% /
23.1% |
32.8% /
52.7% |
5.2 /
3.8 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
51.9% /
48.7% |
21.1 /
20.2 |
| 10 |
LAC |
20 – 17 W |
-0.3 |
37.0% /
43.2% |
5.6% /
0.0% |
3.9% /
2.7% |
4.9 /
6.4 |
29.6% /
48.4% |
29.6% /
25.8% |
5.0 /
2.8 |
81 /
68 |
36.1% /
54.9% |
34.6% /
45.6% |
34.7% /
38.4% |
4.9 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
33.3% /
45.6% |
30.7 /
21.1 |
| 11 |
@CLE |
19 – 7 W |
3.9 |
31.3% /
32.4% |
6.3% /
13.5% |
0.0% /
6.3% |
4.5 /
3.6 |
31.1% /
36.8% |
35.6% /
26.3% |
3.1 /
2.7 |
77 /
56 |
32.1% /
40.0% |
31.2% /
33.9% |
24.2% /
42.2% |
3.7 /
3.3 |
1.3% /
5.4% |
58.4% /
33.9% |
33.0 /
30.4 |
| 12 |
@ARI |
24 – 27 L |
-5.2 |
40.0% /
43.6% |
8.6% /
2.6% |
3.1% /
2.6% |
3.7 /
6.1 |
36.4% /
40.6% |
31.8% /
21.9% |
4.1 /
3.4 |
57 /
71 |
45.5% /
44.2% |
38.6% /
42.3% |
31.5% /
33.9% |
3.8 /
4.9 |
3.5% /
1.4% |
38.6% /
45.1% |
25.5 /
30.9 |
| 13 |
IND |
30 – 10 W |
11.5 |
56.8% /
44.7% |
2.7% /
10.5% |
0.0% /
5.9% |
8.9 /
3.9 |
40.7% /
50.0% |
33.3% /
15.4% |
3.6 /
5.4 |
64 /
64 |
45.8% /
46.7% |
50.0% /
46.9% |
39.9% /
39.3% |
6.7 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
42.2% /
40.6% |
30.9 /
21.3 |
| 14 |
SEA |
30 – 24 W |
6.2 |
51.9% /
36.4% |
0.0% /
6.1% |
0.0% /
9.7% |
9.9 /
7.9 |
34.9% /
45.8% |
16.3% /
45.8% |
3.7 /
5.9 |
70 /
57 |
51.0% /
44.7% |
41.4% /
40.4% |
47.4% /
77.8% |
6.1 /
7.0 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
61.4% /
42.1% |
30.6 /
30.0 |
| 15 |
HOU |
45 – 7 W |
22.7 |
53.3% /
22.9% |
3.3% /
11.4% |
0.0% /
3.2% |
10.9 /
2.8 |
42.5% /
47.6% |
20.0% /
9.5% |
3.5 /
4.1 |
70 /
56 |
53.6% /
35.0% |
47.1% /
32.1% |
49.6% /
40.9% |
6.7 /
3.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
57.1% /
37.5% |
33.1 /
19.9 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
CAR |
3 – 23 L |
-12.4 |
46.2% /
45.8% |
10.3% /
0.0% |
2.9% /
4.2% |
4.3 /
7.1 |
26.7% /
39.0% |
26.7% /
14.6% |
3.4 /
2.9 |
54 /
65 |
48.7% /
42.6% |
40.7% /
41.5% |
33.6% /
29.7% |
4.0 /
4.5 |
1.9% /
1.5% |
27.8% /
63.1% |
30.1 /
33.7 |
| 2 |
@SEA |
9 – 12 L |
-2.0 |
20.7% /
33.3% |
6.9% /
7.1% |
3.7% /
0.0% |
3.1 /
4.3 |
52.6% /
37.2% |
21.1% /
20.9% |
8.4 /
3.1 |
48 /
85 |
38.9% /
37.5% |
33.3% /
35.3% |
49.2% /
23.7% |
5.2 /
3.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.6% /
50.6% |
24.5 /
23.9 |
| 3 |
LA |
39 – 41 L |
-8.5 |
46.3% /
64.3% |
9.8% /
0.0% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
7.5 /
10.4 |
51.5% /
51.5% |
27.3% /
30.3% |
3.4 /
3.8 |
74 /
61 |
47.2% /
57.4% |
48.6% /
57.4% |
50.8% /
55.4% |
5.7 /
6.9 |
1.4% /
3.3% |
44.6% /
54.1% |
36.1 /
36.1 |
| 4 |
@ARI |
15 – 18 L |
1.4 |
30.8% /
49.1% |
5.8% /
10.5% |
2.0% /
2.0% |
4.0 /
5.6 |
37.0% /
39.1% |
25.9% /
30.4% |
3.5 /
2.3 |
79 /
80 |
33.9% /
51.6% |
32.9% /
46.3% |
27.9% /
17.9% |
3.9 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.2% /
28.8% |
22.3 /
27.9 |
| 5 |
@IND |
23 – 26 L |
-3.3 |
50.0% /
44.7% |
4.2% /
10.5% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
7.0 /
7.6 |
31.8% /
32.4% |
31.8% /
32.4% |
3.0 /
4.4 |
70 /
75 |
46.3% /
38.2% |
44.3% /
38.7% |
37.3% /
58.1% |
5.7 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.4% /
49.3% |
17.5 /
28.8 |
| 6 |
@WAS |
24 – 26 L |
-7.0 |
30.0% /
60.5% |
6.0% /
2.6% |
2.1% /
2.7% |
5.0 /
8.6 |
65.0% /
38.2% |
25.0% /
29.4% |
4.3 /
2.8 |
70 /
72 |
41.2% /
51.8% |
40.0% /
50.0% |
50.4% /
43.6% |
4.8 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
28.6% /
47.2% |
32.6 /
26.9 |
| 7 |
DAL |
10 – 40 L |
-20.1 |
39.5% /
51.9% |
11.6% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.3 /
8.7 |
59.1% /
68.9% |
27.3% /
11.1% |
4.7 /
5.9 |
65 /
72 |
48.0% /
66.7% |
46.2% /
62.5% |
40.7% /
57.0% |
4.5 /
7.0 |
4.6% /
0.0% |
33.8% /
62.5% |
23.0 /
34.1 |
| 8 |
@PHI |
10 – 33 L |
-11.9 |
32.5% /
42.9% |
10.0% /
8.6% |
5.6% /
3.1% |
3.6 /
5.5 |
41.7% /
39.4% |
41.7% /
27.3% |
3.9 /
3.5 |
64 /
68 |
40.8% /
46.9% |
35.9% /
41.2% |
38.2% /
44.4% |
3.7 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.5% /
48.5% |
28.5 /
29.0 |
| 9 |
ARI |
10 – 20 L |
-7.3 |
32.1% /
40.0% |
8.9% /
0.0% |
2.0% /
3.3% |
4.8 /
6.7 |
58.8% /
34.8% |
17.6% /
13.0% |
3.7 /
3.7 |
73 /
76 |
40.7% /
38.9% |
38.4% /
36.8% |
30.7% /
45.8% |
4.5 /
4.9 |
1.4% /
1.3% |
23.3% /
60.5% |
23.5 /
34.4 |
| 10 |
NYG |
31 – 21 W |
4.9 |
60.0% /
55.0% |
0.0% /
7.5% |
4.0% /
0.0% |
11.5 /
6.5 |
41.7% /
52.2% |
19.4% /
21.7% |
5.3 /
5.0 |
61 /
63 |
51.2% /
56.5% |
49.2% /
54.0% |
67.7% /
35.6% |
7.8 /
5.9 |
1.6% /
1.6% |
59.0% /
36.5% |
31.9 /
26.6 |
| 12 |
SEA |
13 – 24 L |
-7.2 |
38.1% /
44.1% |
7.1% /
0.0% |
2.6% /
2.9% |
4.7 /
6.7 |
45.8% /
38.7% |
33.3% /
25.8% |
3.5 /
2.9 |
66 /
65 |
42.9% /
44.0% |
40.9% /
41.5% |
43.6% /
48.6% |
4.2 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.4% /
47.7% |
25.4 /
32.2 |
| 13 |
@CHI |
15 – 14 W |
-2.5 |
56.4% /
47.1% |
5.1% /
11.8% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
7.1 /
5.0 |
45.7% /
21.1% |
22.9% /
26.3% |
3.2 /
3.3 |
74 /
36 |
50.9% /
26.9% |
51.4% /
33.3% |
27.5% /
23.8% |
5.3 /
4.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
47.3% /
52.8% |
24.9 /
25.7 |
| 14 |
@HOU |
26 – 16 W |
1.6 |
44.1% /
41.5% |
5.9% /
7.3% |
3.1% /
0.0% |
9.2 /
5.4 |
31.4% /
43.5% |
17.1% /
34.8% |
3.0 /
3.9 |
69 /
64 |
46.2% /
46.9% |
37.7% /
42.2% |
56.1% /
44.4% |
6.1 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
50.7% /
35.9% |
28.5 /
25.3 |
| 15 |
TEN |
25 – 23 W |
3.0 |
57.8% /
52.9% |
6.7% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.1 /
7.0 |
27.3% /
50.0% |
36.4% /
21.4% |
2.3 /
3.2 |
67 /
62 |
47.2% /
51.0% |
47.8% /
51.6% |
31.2% /
26.8% |
6.2 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
32.8% /
45.2% |
23.7 /
23.4 |
Jacksonville Jaguars
@ 
San Francisco 49ers