Game Analysis

PHILADELPHIA (-7.5) vs Jacksonville

• Jalen Hurts averaged a league-high 0.68 EPA/play last week and he will have a favorable matchup in this game as Philadelphia’s yards per attempt versus man coverage is 24% more than it is against zone (2nd). Jacksonville’s defense has a 41% man-coverage rate (2nd-highest) and they are allowing 0.29 EPA/play in man coverage (31st). Eagles’ wide receiver AJ Brown is averaging 5.20 yards per route run versus man coverage this season and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore will look to get him on the opposite side of the field as CB Tyson Campbell.
• Hurt is averaging 15% more yards per attempt against a standard pass rush than the blitz (7th) and the Jaguars lead the NFL with an 84% standard pass rush rate. However, Jacksonville’s defense might be able to get home without blitzing as edge defender Josh Hines-Allen has 32 pressures (9th) and Philadelphia starting LT Jordan Mailata is out. Eagles’ backup LT Fred Johnson has surrendered 23 pressures (3rd-most) despite only about 4 games of snaps.
• The Jaguars traded left tackle Cam Robinson and backup Walker Little would struggle versus edge defender Josh Sweat, who ranks 20th in pass rushing efficiency. However, Jacksonville head coach Doug Pederson hinted that Little might be shifting over to right tackle, leaving tackle Anton Harrison to line up across from Sweat.
• Jaguars’ LG Ezra Cleveland ranks 17th in pass blocking efficiency but he might be out this week and Jacksonville’s injuries on offense don’t stop there. Jaguars WR Christian Kirk 5 receptions that have gone at least 20 yards in the air (8th) and WR Brian Thomas has 8 deep receptions (3rd), but both are likely not going to suit up.
• Jacksonville’s remaining starting wide receiver Gabe Davis will struggle against CB Quinyon Mitchell, who has conceded only 18 receptions in his first seven starts.
• Philadelphia interior defender Jalen Carter has 23 pressures (8th) but the middle of Trevor Lawrence’s offensive line should hold as RG Brandon Scherff ranks 4th in pass blocking efficiency.
• Our model favors the Eagles by 5.5, with a predicted total of 45.9 points, but Philly does apply to a 114-54-2 ATS good team coming home off of 2 or more road games situation. I used Jacksonville in my pool at +7.5 (toss-up on who I would have taken at 7).