Jacksonville Jaguars @

New England Patriots

Sun, Jan 2
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 117
Odds: New England Patriots -17, Total: 41.5

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

NEW ENGLAND (-17) vs Jacksonville

Lean – New England Team Total Under (28.5)

The Jaguars will be about 4 points worse than normal this week due to a bevy of missing players, but the Patriots giving 16.5 in this game is still tough to justify. Rookie QB Mac Jones has led New England’s offense to more than 28 points in only four of his 15 starts. Jacksonville won’t have edge rusher Dawuane Smoot, who has 45 pressures (22nd). Cornerback Shaquill Griffin is also out, and he is allowing 0.97 yards per cover snap while all other Jaguars CBs are surrendering 1.44 yards per cover snap.

Bill Belichick’s record against rookie quarterbacks is 22-6 and Trevor Lawrence will be without three starting offensive linemen on Sunday. Jaguars backup left tackle Walker Little has surrendered 2 sacks in 68 pass blocking snaps while starter Cam Robinson allowed just one sack in 573 pass blocking snaps. Patriots’ rookie interior defender Christian Barmore had 6 of New England’s defensive line’s 8 pressures last week. Jacksonville won’t have starting LG Ben Bartch or starting center Brandon Linder, but RG Andrew Norwell (15th in pass blocking efficiency) will do his best to limit Barmore.

Our model favors the Patriots by 13.7 points, with a predicted total of 41.0 points. I don’t trust the Jags’ offense so I’ll lean with New England’s Team Total Under 28.5 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Jaguars
  • Patriots
JAC
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 38.27 33.73
  • Succ Pass Plays 44.1% 49.4%
  • Sack Rate 5.1% 5.1%
  • Int Rate 2.6% 1.3%
  • Deep Pass Rate 18.7% 16.4%
  • Big Pass Yards 31.8% 39.4%
  • NYPP 5.31 6.81



Rush


  • Rush Plays 22.87 29.27
  • RB YPR 4.43 3.89
  • Stuff Rate 21.0% 22.8%
  • Succ Rush Plays 50.4% 48.7%
  • Big Rush Yards 39.0% 37.9%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.58 4.22




Game

  • All Snaps 61.13 63.00
  • Early Down Succ 50.4% 51.9%
  • Succ Rate 46.5% 49.1%
  • Big Yards Rate 34.1% 38.8%
  • Yards Per Play 5.03 5.61
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.3% 0.1%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 26.71 31.14
  • Run Ratio 37.4% 46.5%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control -7.15 7.15
 
  • Points 14.47 26.40
Share This