Game Analysis
NEW ENGLAND (-17) vs Jacksonville
Lean – New England Team Total Under (28.5)
The Jaguars will be about 4 points worse than normal this week due to a bevy of missing players, but the Patriots giving 16.5 in this game is still tough to justify. Rookie QB Mac Jones has led New England’s offense to more than 28 points in only four of his 15 starts. Jacksonville won’t have edge rusher Dawuane Smoot, who has 45 pressures (22nd). Cornerback Shaquill Griffin is also out, and he is allowing 0.97 yards per cover snap while all other Jaguars CBs are surrendering 1.44 yards per cover snap.
Bill Belichick’s record against rookie quarterbacks is 22-6 and Trevor Lawrence will be without three starting offensive linemen on Sunday. Jaguars backup left tackle Walker Little has surrendered 2 sacks in 68 pass blocking snaps while starter Cam Robinson allowed just one sack in 573 pass blocking snaps. Patriots’ rookie interior defender Christian Barmore had 6 of New England’s defensive line’s 8 pressures last week. Jacksonville won’t have starting LG Ben Bartch or starting center Brandon Linder, but RG Andrew Norwell (15th in pass blocking efficiency) will do his best to limit Barmore.
Our model favors the Patriots by 13.7 points, with a predicted total of 41.0 points. I don’t trust the Jags’ offense so I’ll lean with New England’s Team Total Under 28.5 points.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.27
33.73
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.1%
49.4%
-
Sack Rate
5.1%
5.1%
-
Int Rate
2.6%
1.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.7%
16.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
31.8%
39.4%
-
NYPP
5.31
6.81
Rush
-
Rush Plays
22.87
29.27
-
RB YPR
4.43
3.89
-
Stuff Rate
21.0%
22.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
50.4%
48.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
39.0%
37.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.58
4.22
Game
-
All Snaps
61.13
63.00
-
Early Down Succ
50.4%
51.9%
-
Succ Rate
46.5%
49.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
34.1%
38.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.03
5.61
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.3%
0.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.71
31.14
-
Run Ratio
37.4%
46.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.00
0.00
-
Game Control
-7.15
7.15
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.07
34.80
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.2%
44.4%
-
Sack Rate
5.0%
6.3%
-
Int Rate
2.3%
4.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.7%
18.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
40.6%
30.9%
-
NYPP
6.73
5.57
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.40
26.93
-
RB YPR
4.31
4.44
-
Stuff Rate
26.3%
21.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
49.1%
47.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
51.3%
45.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.31
4.52
Game
-
All Snaps
61.47
61.73
-
Early Down Succ
51.1%
49.3%
-
Succ Rate
48.6%
45.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
44.3%
36.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.61
5.11
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.91
29.09
-
Run Ratio
46.2%
43.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.00
0.00
-
Game Control
2.43
-2.43
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@HST |
21 – 37 L |
-14.37 |
38.5% /
55.9% |
1.9% /
2.9% |
5.9% /
0.0% |
6.13 /
8.50 |
62.5% /
48.8% |
18.8% /
19.5% |
4.75 /
3.90 |
68 /
75 |
47.3% /
50.9% |
44.1% /
52.0% |
38.7% /
46.6% |
5.81 /
5.99 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
23.5% /
54.7% |
21.36 /
33.43 |
| 2 |
DEN |
13 – 23 L |
-3.44 |
32.4% /
51.4% |
2.9% /
8.1% |
6.1% /
0.0% |
3.35 /
8.16 |
50.0% /
46.7% |
18.8% /
33.3% |
4.69 /
3.20 |
50 /
67 |
36.8% /
56.9% |
38.0% /
49.3% |
42.5% /
34.9% |
3.78 /
5.94 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.0% /
44.8% |
20.67 /
32.09 |
| 3 |
ARZ |
19 – 31 L |
-3.29 |
51.4% /
61.8% |
8.1% /
0.0% |
5.9% /
2.9% |
5.46 /
9.29 |
65.5% /
56.7% |
17.2% /
23.3% |
5.48 /
3.03 |
66 /
64 |
67.3% /
66.0% |
57.6% /
59.4% |
32.0% /
34.9% |
5.47 /
6.36 |
3.0% /
0.0% |
43.9% /
46.9% |
25.67 /
21.91 |
| 4 |
@CIN |
21 – 24 L |
4.43 |
60.0% /
54.5% |
4.0% /
3.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.08 /
10.36 |
53.3% /
45.5% |
13.3% /
18.2% |
4.63 /
3.55 |
55 /
55 |
60.0% /
51.1% |
56.4% /
50.9% |
47.8% /
49.8% |
6.20 /
7.64 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
54.5% /
40.0% |
27.00 /
17.33 |
| 5 |
TEN |
19 – 37 L |
-9.28 |
54.3% /
40.0% |
5.7% /
12.0% |
3.0% /
0.0% |
7.31 /
7.36 |
61.3% /
63.9% |
19.4% /
13.9% |
6.39 /
5.11 |
66 /
61 |
65.4% /
57.4% |
57.6% /
54.1% |
41.4% /
45.9% |
6.88 /
6.03 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
47.0% /
59.0% |
24.73 /
30.78 |
| 6 |
MIA |
23 – 20 W |
-1.94 |
51.2% /
50.0% |
4.7% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
2.1% |
7.26 /
7.38 |
31.6% /
40.0% |
21.1% /
20.0% |
4.42 /
3.85 |
62 /
68 |
51.1% /
44.9% |
45.2% /
47.1% |
44.2% /
40.6% |
6.39 /
6.34 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
30.6% /
29.4% |
29.73 /
25.91 |
| 8 |
@SEA |
7 – 31 L |
-14.52 |
52.7% /
51.9% |
1.8% /
11.1% |
1.9% /
0.0% |
4.13 /
5.93 |
47.4% /
44.0% |
10.5% /
32.0% |
4.32 /
2.76 |
74 /
52 |
57.1% /
53.8% |
51.4% /
48.1% |
4.4% /
36.0% |
4.18 /
4.40 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
25.7% /
48.1% |
22.09 /
34.11 |
| 9 |
BUF |
9 – 6 W |
0.59 |
33.3% /
43.1% |
6.7% /
7.8% |
0.0% /
4.3% |
4.63 /
4.49 |
33.3% /
35.7% |
37.0% /
21.4% |
2.93 /
5.14 |
57 /
65 |
36.6% /
45.7% |
33.3% /
41.5% |
33.5% /
29.5% |
3.82 /
4.63 |
1.8% /
1.5% |
47.4% /
21.5% |
32.90 /
27.67 |
| 10 |
@IND |
17 – 23 L |
-8.74 |
34.2% /
34.3% |
7.9% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.00 /
4.80 |
58.3% /
48.1% |
16.7% /
29.6% |
7.46 /
4.70 |
62 /
62 |
50.0% /
45.7% |
43.5% /
40.3% |
49.0% /
26.4% |
5.34 /
4.76 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
38.7% /
43.5% |
26.62 /
25.50 |
| 11 |
SF |
10 – 30 L |
-14.29 |
42.9% /
66.7% |
10.7% /
8.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.21 /
6.75 |
50.0% /
42.9% |
18.8% /
26.2% |
3.38 /
4.07 |
44 /
66 |
45.2% /
51.9% |
45.5% /
51.5% |
15.1% /
42.9% |
4.55 /
5.05 |
4.5% /
0.0% |
36.4% /
63.6% |
24.71 /
27.67 |
| 12 |
ATL |
14 – 21 L |
-8.35 |
37.2% /
53.3% |
2.3% /
3.3% |
2.4% /
3.4% |
5.02 /
6.10 |
67.9% /
51.7% |
7.1% /
17.2% |
5.04 /
5.14 |
71 /
59 |
50.0% /
56.5% |
49.3% /
52.5% |
39.0% /
30.7% |
5.03 /
5.63 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
39.4% /
49.2% |
24.10 /
30.70 |
| 13 |
@LA |
7 – 37 L |
-14.25 |
40.0% /
59.0% |
6.7% /
2.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.53 /
7.44 |
28.0% /
59.3% |
40.0% /
18.5% |
2.44 /
4.74 |
55 /
66 |
31.7% /
63.5% |
34.5% /
59.1% |
24.8% /
42.8% |
3.58 /
6.33 |
3.6% /
0.0% |
45.5% /
40.9% |
27.09 /
28.40 |
| 14 |
@TEN |
0 – 20 L |
-10.30 |
37.2% /
48.6% |
7.0% /
11.4% |
10.0% /
0.0% |
4.28 /
4.60 |
12.5% /
38.2% |
62.5% /
32.4% |
1.00 /
3.00 |
51 /
69 |
31.4% /
46.2% |
33.3% /
43.5% |
31.4% /
18.1% |
3.76 /
3.81 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
15.7% /
49.3% |
27.18 /
33.55 |
| 15 |
HST |
16 – 30 L |
-7.36 |
41.5% /
35.5% |
7.3% /
3.2% |
0.0% /
3.3% |
4.61 /
6.65 |
41.7% /
38.5% |
25.0% /
19.2% |
4.29 /
2.88 |
65 /
57 |
48.9% /
28.9% |
41.5% /
36.8% |
31.6% /
34.5% |
4.49 /
4.93 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.9% /
45.6% |
25.73 /
35.40 |
| 16 |
@NYJ |
21 – 26 L |
-2.12 |
55.0% /
34.8% |
2.5% /
4.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.30 /
4.35 |
58.1% /
58.3% |
16.1% /
16.7% |
4.26 /
7.58 |
71 /
59 |
59.3% /
52.4% |
56.3% /
49.2% |
22.6% /
56.0% |
5.41 /
6.32 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
43.7% /
61.0% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
MIA |
16 – 17 L |
-3.18 |
56.4% /
51.7% |
0.0% /
6.9% |
0.0% /
3.7% |
7.21 /
6.38 |
56.7% /
56.5% |
13.3% /
30.4% |
4.17 /
3.22 |
69 /
52 |
52.8% /
58.5% |
56.5% /
53.8% |
36.9% /
43.1% |
5.88 /
4.98 |
2.9% /
0.0% |
43.5% /
44.2% |
27.63 /
25.11 |
| 2 |
@NYJ |
25 – 6 W |
10.53 |
36.4% /
35.1% |
9.1% /
10.8% |
0.0% /
12.1% |
4.82 /
4.97 |
54.2% /
51.6% |
20.8% /
29.0% |
4.21 /
4.90 |
57 /
68 |
50.0% /
45.1% |
43.9% /
42.6% |
48.1% /
50.0% |
4.56 /
4.94 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
42.1% /
45.6% |
40.00 /
24.58 |
| 3 |
NO |
13 – 28 L |
-10.20 |
35.8% /
50.0% |
3.8% /
12.5% |
5.9% /
0.0% |
4.74 /
4.58 |
41.2% /
50.0% |
23.5% /
18.4% |
2.88 /
3.74 |
70 /
62 |
37.0% /
53.2% |
37.1% /
50.0% |
28.8% /
9.3% |
4.29 /
4.06 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
24.3% /
61.3% |
27.92 /
32.92 |
| 4 |
TB |
17 – 19 L |
-0.20 |
54.3% /
40.9% |
8.7% /
2.3% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
6.41 /
5.93 |
25.0% /
53.3% |
75.0% /
23.3% |
-0.13 /
3.97 |
54 /
74 |
59.5% /
46.3% |
50.0% /
45.9% |
22.6% /
42.3% |
5.44 /
5.14 |
1.9% /
0.0% |
14.8% /
40.5% |
29.64 /
25.64 |
| 5 |
@HST |
25 – 22 W |
-5.14 |
54.8% /
46.9% |
3.2% /
9.4% |
3.3% /
0.0% |
7.29 /
9.16 |
56.7% /
20.8% |
30.0% /
12.5% |
4.20 /
2.79 |
61 /
56 |
57.1% /
29.7% |
55.7% /
35.7% |
38.9% /
47.8% |
5.77 /
6.43 |
1.6% /
1.8% |
49.2% /
42.9% |
33.33 /
27.22 |
| 6 |
DAL |
29 – 35 L |
2.00 |
52.2% /
52.9% |
8.7% /
0.0% |
4.8% /
2.0% |
9.35 /
8.73 |
51.9% /
35.5% |
18.5% /
29.0% |
4.44 /
3.94 |
50 /
82 |
57.5% /
50.8% |
52.0% /
46.3% |
56.4% /
39.7% |
6.70 /
6.91 |
2.0% /
1.2% |
54.0% /
37.8% |
30.38 /
29.00 |
| 7 |
NYJ |
54 – 13 W |
19.28 |
54.8% /
52.3% |
2.4% /
4.5% |
0.0% /
4.8% |
9.60 /
5.39 |
50.0% /
52.9% |
31.3% /
17.6% |
4.63 /
3.65 |
74 /
61 |
50.8% /
55.6% |
52.7% /
52.5% |
69.8% /
26.3% |
7.45 /
4.90 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
43.2% /
27.9% |
35.27 /
25.64 |
| 8 |
@LAC |
27 – 24 W |
-0.77 |
44.4% /
39.5% |
2.8% /
7.9% |
0.0% /
5.7% |
5.86 /
5.42 |
59.0% /
40.0% |
23.1% /
15.0% |
3.62 /
8.15 |
75 /
58 |
54.5% /
42.9% |
52.0% /
39.7% |
28.1% /
46.1% |
4.69 /
6.36 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
52.0% /
34.5% |
37.18 /
20.25 |
| 9 |
@CAR |
24 – 6 W |
7.64 |
35.0% /
32.4% |
10.0% /
2.9% |
5.6% /
9.1% |
6.10 /
4.76 |
46.2% /
39.1% |
23.1% /
17.4% |
3.87 /
3.39 |
59 /
57 |
41.9% /
38.6% |
42.4% /
35.1% |
49.7% /
29.6% |
4.63 /
4.21 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
66.1% /
40.4% |
35.10 /
30.82 |
| 10 |
CLV |
45 – 7 W |
14.20 |
64.3% /
39.5% |
7.1% /
13.2% |
0.0% /
3.0% |
9.57 /
3.11 |
52.9% /
45.0% |
26.5% /
20.0% |
5.41 /
4.95 |
62 /
58 |
55.8% /
51.2% |
58.1% /
41.4% |
56.7% /
20.9% |
7.29 /
3.74 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
54.8% /
34.5% |
28.78 /
22.11 |
| 11 |
@ATL |
25 – 0 W |
9.70 |
51.7% /
41.7% |
10.3% /
11.1% |
3.8% /
12.5% |
6.00 /
3.47 |
50.0% /
31.3% |
33.3% /
43.8% |
4.47 /
2.50 |
59 /
52 |
57.8% /
45.9% |
50.8% /
38.5% |
25.5% /
11.1% |
5.22 /
3.17 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.8% /
30.8% |
33.00 /
21.45 |
| 12 |
TEN |
36 – 13 W |
7.84 |
55.9% /
34.8% |
5.9% /
8.7% |
0.0% /
4.8% |
8.50 /
3.70 |
41.7% /
59.0% |
20.8% /
7.7% |
4.38 /
6.92 |
58 /
62 |
53.2% /
53.2% |
50.0% /
50.0% |
49.4% /
52.1% |
6.79 /
5.73 |
0.0% /
4.8% |
41.4% /
62.9% |
40.91 /
23.82 |
| 13 |
@BUF |
14 – 10 W |
2.88 |
33.3% /
43.8% |
0.0% /
6.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.33 /
4.09 |
30.4% /
44.0% |
37.0% /
16.0% |
4.83 /
3.96 |
49 /
57 |
34.3% /
51.2% |
30.6% /
43.9% |
66.4% /
26.2% |
4.92 /
4.04 |
2.0% /
1.8% |
93.9% /
43.9% |
22.90 /
39.60 |
| 15 |
@IND |
17 – 27 L |
-11.85 |
47.8% /
30.8% |
2.2% /
7.7% |
4.4% /
8.3% |
6.17 /
3.77 |
47.4% /
59.0% |
26.3% /
20.5% |
4.26 /
5.79 |
65 /
52 |
51.1% /
56.4% |
47.7% /
51.9% |
34.5% /
56.9% |
5.62 /
5.29 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
29.2% /
75.0% |
27.10 /
34.70 |
| 16 |
BUF |
21 – 33 L |
-6.31 |
33.3% /
57.4% |
3.0% /
0.0% |
3.1% /
0.0% |
4.21 /
6.68 |
59.3% /
53.6% |
18.5% /
25.0% |
5.52 /
4.07 |
60 /
75 |
47.7% /
55.9% |
45.0% /
56.0% |
37.8% /
20.3% |
4.80 /
5.71 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
45.0% /
37.3% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
Jacksonville Jaguars
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New England Patriots