Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Jacksonville (+4) over MIAMI

The Jaguars gained less than 1 yard per pass play last week and Cody Kessler is down to 3.6 yards per pass play for the season, which is nearly 3 yards per pass play less than the NFL average. It looks like Jacksonville will continue to trot Kessler out there, even though at this point it’s clear Blake Bortles is the better quarterback. The Jaguars will likely focus on the ground game given Kessler’s limitations, but the Dolphins have the 7th-ranked rush defense in our numbers. Jacksonville’s defense will need to create some turnovers because it’s very unlikely the offense can put together any lengthy drives.

Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill was sacked 9 times last week and should be under heavy pressure again on Sunday. Calais Campbell has a favorable matchup lining up across from Ja’Waun James, who’s surrendered 7 sacks this season (6th-most). I expect OC Adam Gase to use screens heavily to alleviate some of the pressure, forcing the Jaguars to prove they can wrap-up after missing 19 tackles in the last two weeks.

The Dolphins still have a tiny chance of making the playoffs and our model favors them by 4.3 with a predicted total of 37.7. The line is actually pretty fair even considering how bad Kessler has been but the situation strongly favors the Jaguars, who apply to a 133-53-8 ATS dog off an upset loss angle and a 64-19-1 ATS late season contrary situation. Speaking of contrary, teams that are eliminated from playoff contention are actually 97-61-5 ATS in the final two weeks of the season when facing a team in a win or be eliminated from the playoffs situation. Miami may need to win but if the Dolphins could win whenever they wanted to win then they wouldn’t be in this must win situation, would they?

Team Stats
Game Log

Jaguars
Dolphins

JAC

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 35.7 32.3
Succ Pass Plays 45.5% 46.0%
Sack Rate 10.0% 6.1%
Int Rate 2.9% 2.2%
Deep Pass Rate 14.2% 18.7%
Big Pass Yards 34.9% 36.3%
NYPP 5.5 6.4

Rush

Rush Plays 26.6 28.5
RB YPR 3.6 3.6
Stuff Rate 20.6% 24.1%
Succ Rush Plays 47.1% 37.4%
Big Rush Yards 35.4% 42.1%
Yards Per Rush 4.2 4.0

Game

All Snaps 62.3 60.8
Early Down Succ 46.7% 44.8%
Succ Rate 46.7% 42.4%
Big Yards Rate 38.3% 41.1%
Yards Per Play 5.1 5.3
Fumble Lost Rate 1.6% 0.4%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.2 29.4
Run Ratio 42.6% 46.9%
Starting Field Pos 26.4 29.5
Game Control -2.7 2.7

Points 16.1 20.6

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NYG	20 – 15 W	3.9	44.1% / 28.2%	2.9% / 5.1%	3.0% / 2.7%	4.9 / 5.4	36.7% / 34.8%	16.7% / 30.4%	4.6 / 5.0	64 / 62	46.8% / 31.9%	40.6% / 30.6%	38.8% / 38.0%	4.8 / 5.2	0.0% / 1.6%	46.9% / 37.1%	31.5 / 25.3
2	NE	31 – 20 W	13.1	57.8% / 48.6%	0.0% / 5.4%	2.2% / 0.0%	8.4 / 5.9	36.0% / 36.0%	16.0% / 12.0%	4.2 / 3.3	70 / 62	46.3% / 47.9%	50.0% / 43.5%	42.7% / 38.3%	6.9 / 4.9	1.4% / 1.6%	35.7% / 40.3%	25.7 / 30.1
3	TEN	6 – 9 L	-1.5	37.8% / 45.8%	8.1% / 12.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	3.9 / 3.5	52.6% / 42.9%	15.8% / 25.7%	4.6 / 4.3	56 / 59	46.3% / 47.7%	42.9% / 44.1%	10.3% / 34.3%	4.1 / 3.9	1.8% / 0.0%	33.9% / 59.3%	23.3 / 28.2
4	NYJ	31 – 12 W	10.3	57.5% / 32.4%	5.0% / 8.1%	2.6% / 0.0%	9.4 / 3.9	38.2% / 28.6%	20.6% / 35.7%	3.7 / 2.4	74 / 51	50.0% / 35.1%	48.6% / 31.4%	50.5% / 23.6%	6.8 / 3.5	2.7% / 0.0%	45.9% / 27.5%	26.8 / 29.8
5	@KC	14 – 30 L	-14.4	73.7% / 87.0%	13.2% / 4.3%	12.1% / 9.1%	10.6 / 13.0	70.6% / 28.1%	5.9% / 25.0%	5.9 / 4.0	55 / 55	48.4% / 45.5%	72.7% / 52.7%	49.8% / 49.3%	9.1 / 7.7	1.8% / 0.0%	30.9% / 58.2%	28.3 / 21.3
6	@DAL	7 – 40 L	-18.5	48.3% / 36.7%	10.3% / 10.0%	3.8% / 0.0%	4.8 / 5.7	38.9% / 45.2%	16.7% / 23.8%	3.6 / 4.9	47 / 72	48.6% / 39.6%	44.7% / 41.7%	32.4% / 45.0%	4.3 / 5.3	2.1% / 0.0%	38.3% / 58.3%	26.4 / 37.8
7	HOU	7 – 20 L	-12.6	45.7% / 36.0%	8.7% / 4.0%	2.4% / 0.0%	4.1 / 5.2	31.8% / 51.3%	27.3% / 12.8%	3.2 / 3.7	68 / 64	41.7% / 47.7%	41.2% / 45.3%	13.1% / 21.2%	3.8 / 4.3	2.9% / 0.0%	32.4% / 60.9%	20.0 / 36.3
8	PHI	18 – 24 L	-2.2	44.4% / 52.9%	8.9% / 11.8%	0.0% / 3.3%	5.9 / 7.7	64.7% / 41.9%	17.6% / 12.9%	4.1 / 4.4	62 / 65	52.2% / 50.0%	50.0% / 47.7%	34.3% / 62.6%	5.4 / 6.1	1.6% / 1.5%	27.4% / 47.7%	29.0 / 26.9
10	@IND	26 – 29 L	-7.6	56.4% / 55.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 3.4%	8.3 / 9.8	50.0% / 32.0%	32.4% / 32.0%	2.7 / 3.4	73 / 54	50.9% / 47.4%	53.4% / 44.4%	37.3% / 60.4%	5.7 / 6.8	1.4% / 0.0%	46.6% / 46.3%	31.0 / 24.1
11	PIT	16 – 20 L	6.1	25.0% / 46.8%	25.0% / 4.3%	0.0% / 6.7%	2.7 / 6.3	53.5% / 36.4%	20.9% / 27.3%	4.2 / 2.4	67 / 58	46.9% / 51.1%	43.3% / 44.8%	44.9% / 49.2%	3.6 / 5.6	1.5% / 0.0%	64.2% / 19.0%	32.1 / 26.2
12	@BUF	21 – 24 L	-4.4	42.3% / 36.8%	11.5% / 0.0%	8.7% / 0.0%	4.1 / 8.4	53.8% / 45.9%	23.1% / 16.2%	5.8 / 4.6	65 / 56	51.9% / 52.4%	49.2% / 42.9%	62.8% / 50.5%	5.1 / 5.9	0.0% / 0.0%	60.0% / 66.1%	24.6 / 31.5
13	IND	6 – 0 W	2.3	44.4% / 41.8%	11.1% / 5.5%	0.0% / 1.9%	4.9 / 4.1	33.3% / 18.8%	33.3% / 25.0%	2.9 / 2.6	54 / 71	38.5% / 42.0%	38.9% / 36.6%	16.1% / 11.7%	3.9 / 3.7	1.9% / 1.4%	50.0% / 22.5%	21.9 / 31.0
14	@TEN	9 – 30 L	-13.6	42.6% / 56.0%	8.5% / 4.0%	0.0% / 4.2%	4.1 / 6.5	57.1% / 44.1%	19.0% / 26.5%	2.9 / 7.8	68 / 59	57.1% / 51.2%	47.1% / 49.2%	34.8% / 60.7%	3.8 / 7.3	1.5% / 0.0%	30.9% / 57.6%	24.3 / 33.5
15	WAS	13 – 16 L	1.6	17.4% / 39.3%	26.1% / 10.7%	5.9% / 0.0%	0.9 / 4.9	42.3% / 37.1%	23.1% / 31.4%	6.6 / 3.1	49 / 63	27.8% / 37.8%	30.6% / 38.1%	67.7% / 30.1%	3.9 / 3.9	2.0% / 0.0%	53.1% / 55.6%	23.9 / 31.5

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	TEN	27 – 17 W	3.5	55.2% / 36.8%	3.4% / 0.0%	7.1% / 7.9%	7.7 / 5.8	53.3% / 44.8%	26.7% / 17.2%	4.1 / 4.0	59 / 67	66.7% / 41.2%	54.2% / 40.3%	44.3% / 17.0%	5.8 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	50.8% / 43.3%	35.5 / 29.2
2	@NYJ	20 – 12 W	9.2	44.4% / 43.2%	14.8% / 6.8%	0.0% / 4.9%	4.5 / 7.3	52.9% / 26.3%	26.5% / 36.8%	4.1 / 2.2	61 / 63	55.8% / 39.6%	49.2% / 38.1%	36.2% / 50.3%	4.3 / 5.7	3.3% / 1.6%	55.7% / 30.2%	34.4 / 24.1
3	OAK	28 – 20 W	-2.8	48.0% / 57.1%	4.0% / 7.1%	0.0% / 5.1%	13.3 / 7.7	20.0% / 55.9%	33.3% / 14.7%	2.8 / 3.3	40 / 76	43.3% / 62.1%	37.5% / 56.6%	62.8% / 32.6%	9.4 / 5.7	0.0% / 0.0%	37.5% / 44.7%	30.6 / 19.7
4	@NE	7 – 38 L	-19.6	33.3% / 42.9%	7.4% / 0.0%	4.0% / 5.7%	4.3 / 7.8	11.1% / 34.9%	38.9% / 18.6%	3.1 / 4.1	45 / 78	21.2% / 34.5%	24.4% / 38.5%	20.9% / 45.1%	3.8 / 5.8	2.2% / 0.0%	40.0% / 55.1%	29.5 / 32.0
5	@CIN	17 – 27 L	4.6	77.3% / 68.2%	13.6% / 9.1%	10.5% / 5.0%	7.7 / 10.4	45.5% / 29.6%	13.6% / 25.9%	5.8 / 3.9	44 / 49	48.9% / 45.7%	61.4% / 46.9%	25.3% / 52.9%	6.8 / 6.8	2.3% / 0.0%	50.0% / 55.1%	25.5 / 22.9
6	CHI	31 – 28 W	0.3	48.8% / 54.5%	0.0% / 6.1%	4.7% / 3.2%	8.8 / 9.2	58.1% / 43.8%	9.7% / 9.4%	5.2 / 5.2	74 / 65	53.4% / 48.0%	52.7% / 49.2%	48.2% / 60.7%	7.3 / 7.2	1.4% / 3.1%	41.9% / 49.2%	28.7 / 25.3
7	DET	21 – 32 L	-8.1	48.6% / 60.9%	11.4% / 4.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.1 / 9.1	47.4% / 54.1%	26.3% / 21.6%	5.6 / 6.8	54 / 60	46.5% / 66.0%	48.1% / 56.7%	40.4% / 60.8%	6.0 / 7.7	0.0% / 0.0%	35.2% / 61.7%	25.2 / 23.0
8	@HOU	23 – 42 L	-7.4	40.0% / 45.0%	5.0% / 0.0%	2.6% / 0.0%	6.4 / 12.0	64.0% / 38.9%	20.0% / 19.4%	4.6 / 5.3	65 / 56	54.9% / 39.0%	49.2% / 41.1%	34.3% / 64.0%	5.7 / 7.6	0.0% / 0.0%	38.5% / 64.3%	25.3 / 29.7
9	NYJ	13 – 6 W	3.2	42.9% / 34.9%	14.3% / 9.3%	0.0% / 10.3%	3.7 / 4.7	24.1% / 38.1%	24.1% / 28.6%	2.3 / 3.8	57 / 64	40.0% / 42.9%	33.3% / 35.9%	15.3% / 41.8%	3.0 / 4.4	0.0% / 0.0%	50.9% / 32.8%	32.4 / 18.4
10	@GB	12 – 31 L	-9.9	37.2% / 50.0%	14.0% / 6.7%	2.7% / 0.0%	3.8 / 6.1	56.5% / 50.0%	13.0% / 10.7%	5.7 / 7.1	66 / 58	45.8% / 58.5%	43.9% / 50.0%	38.1% / 54.5%	4.5 / 6.6	1.5% / 1.7%	34.8% / 48.3%	31.4 / 35.7
12	@IND	24 – 27 L	2.2	42.3% / 61.5%	3.8% / 2.6%	0.0% / 5.3%	7.7 / 8.6	42.3% / 53.8%	26.9% / 19.2%	4.4 / 4.5	52 / 65	46.2% / 62.7%	42.3% / 58.5%	55.6% / 46.6%	6.1 / 7.0	1.9% / 1.5%	50.0% / 40.0%	28.8 / 24.4
13	BUF	21 – 17 W	4.1	51.9% / 37.1%	11.1% / 5.7%	4.2% / 6.1%	4.3 / 6.2	28.0% / 51.6%	40.0% / 22.6%	2.5 / 6.4	52 / 66	48.7% / 46.2%	40.4% / 43.9%	16.9% / 68.0%	3.4 / 6.3	0.0% / 1.5%	48.1% / 47.0%	28.6 / 23.4
14	NE	34 – 33 W	-2.0	45.8% / 53.3%	20.8% / 4.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.3 / 7.6	71.4% / 33.3%	14.3% / 23.3%	9.0 / 2.6	45 / 75	65.8% / 42.4%	57.8% / 45.3%	58.5% / 28.0%	9.2 / 5.6	0.0% / 0.0%	46.7% / 40.0%	25.3 / 35.3
15	@MIN	17 – 41 L	-13.1	21.2% / 52.2%	27.3% / 8.7%	0.0% / 4.8%	1.1 / 8.6	45.0% / 52.4%	25.0% / 14.3%	7.8 / 5.3	53 / 65	36.8% / 59.2%	30.2% / 52.3%	64.2% / 57.9%	3.6 / 6.5	0.0% / 0.0%	37.7% / 64.6%	25.2 / 39.4

Jacksonville Jaguars @

Miami Dolphins

Sat, Dec 22

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis