Game Analysis
Lean – Jacksonville (+4) over MIAMI
The Jaguars gained less than 1 yard per pass play last week and Cody Kessler is down to 3.6 yards per pass play for the season, which is nearly 3 yards per pass play less than the NFL average. It looks like Jacksonville will continue to trot Kessler out there, even though at this point it’s clear Blake Bortles is the better quarterback. The Jaguars will likely focus on the ground game given Kessler’s limitations, but the Dolphins have the 7th-ranked rush defense in our numbers. Jacksonville’s defense will need to create some turnovers because it’s very unlikely the offense can put together any lengthy drives.
Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill was sacked 9 times last week and should be under heavy pressure again on Sunday. Calais Campbell has a favorable matchup lining up across from Ja’Waun James, who’s surrendered 7 sacks this season (6th-most). I expect OC Adam Gase to use screens heavily to alleviate some of the pressure, forcing the Jaguars to prove they can wrap-up after missing 19 tackles in the last two weeks.
The Dolphins still have a tiny chance of making the playoffs and our model favors them by 4.3 with a predicted total of 37.7. The line is actually pretty fair even considering how bad Kessler has been but the situation strongly favors the Jaguars, who apply to a 133-53-8 ATS dog off an upset loss angle and a 64-19-1 ATS late season contrary situation. Speaking of contrary, teams that are eliminated from playoff contention are actually 97-61-5 ATS in the final two weeks of the season when facing a team in a win or be eliminated from the playoffs situation. Miami may need to win but if the Dolphins could win whenever they wanted to win then they wouldn’t be in this must win situation, would they?
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.7
32.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.5%
46.0%
-
Sack Rate
10.0%
6.1%
-
Int Rate
2.9%
2.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.2%
18.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
34.9%
36.3%
-
NYPP
5.5
6.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.6
28.5
-
RB YPR
3.6
3.6
-
Stuff Rate
20.6%
24.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
47.1%
37.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
35.4%
42.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.2
4.0
Game
-
All Snaps
62.3
60.8
-
Early Down Succ
46.7%
44.8%
-
Succ Rate
46.7%
42.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.3%
41.1%
-
Yards Per Play
5.1
5.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.6%
0.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.2
29.4
-
Run Ratio
42.6%
46.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.4
29.5
-
Game Control
-2.7
2.7
Pass
-
Pass Plays
30.6
33.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.5%
49.8%
-
Sack Rate
10.8%
5.1%
-
Int Rate
2.6%
4.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.3%
21.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
33.5%
46.4%
-
NYPP
6.3
7.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.1
31.1
-
RB YPR
4.6
4.3
-
Stuff Rate
24.2%
20.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.3%
43.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
41.8%
48.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.8
4.6
Game
-
All Snaps
54.8
64.8
-
Early Down Succ
48.2%
49.1%
-
Succ Rate
44.6%
46.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.1%
48.6%
-
Yards Per Play
5.6
6.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
31.2
30.3
-
Run Ratio
44.1%
48.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.0
27.3
-
Game Control
-2.6
2.6
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@NYG |
20 – 15 W |
3.9 |
44.1% / 28.2% |
2.9% / 5.1% |
3.0% / 2.7% |
4.9 / 5.4 |
36.7% / 34.8% |
16.7% / 30.4% |
4.6 / 5.0 |
64 / 62 |
46.8% / 31.9% |
40.6% / 30.6% |
38.8% / 38.0% |
4.8 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
46.9% / 37.1% |
31.5 / 25.3 |
2 |
NE |
31 – 20 W |
13.1 |
57.8% / 48.6% |
0.0% / 5.4% |
2.2% / 0.0% |
8.4 / 5.9 |
36.0% / 36.0% |
16.0% / 12.0% |
4.2 / 3.3 |
70 / 62 |
46.3% / 47.9% |
50.0% / 43.5% |
42.7% / 38.3% |
6.9 / 4.9 |
1.4% / 1.6% |
35.7% / 40.3% |
25.7 / 30.1 |
3 |
TEN |
6 – 9 L |
-1.5 |
37.8% / 45.8% |
8.1% / 12.5% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
3.9 / 3.5 |
52.6% / 42.9% |
15.8% / 25.7% |
4.6 / 4.3 |
56 / 59 |
46.3% / 47.7% |
42.9% / 44.1% |
10.3% / 34.3% |
4.1 / 3.9 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
33.9% / 59.3% |
23.3 / 28.2 |
4 |
NYJ |
31 – 12 W |
10.3 |
57.5% / 32.4% |
5.0% / 8.1% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
9.4 / 3.9 |
38.2% / 28.6% |
20.6% / 35.7% |
3.7 / 2.4 |
74 / 51 |
50.0% / 35.1% |
48.6% / 31.4% |
50.5% / 23.6% |
6.8 / 3.5 |
2.7% / 0.0% |
45.9% / 27.5% |
26.8 / 29.8 |
5 |
@KC |
14 – 30 L |
-14.4 |
73.7% / 87.0% |
13.2% / 4.3% |
12.1% / 9.1% |
10.6 / 13.0 |
70.6% / 28.1% |
5.9% / 25.0% |
5.9 / 4.0 |
55 / 55 |
48.4% / 45.5% |
72.7% / 52.7% |
49.8% / 49.3% |
9.1 / 7.7 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
30.9% / 58.2% |
28.3 / 21.3 |
6 |
@DAL |
7 – 40 L |
-18.5 |
48.3% / 36.7% |
10.3% / 10.0% |
3.8% / 0.0% |
4.8 / 5.7 |
38.9% / 45.2% |
16.7% / 23.8% |
3.6 / 4.9 |
47 / 72 |
48.6% / 39.6% |
44.7% / 41.7% |
32.4% / 45.0% |
4.3 / 5.3 |
2.1% / 0.0% |
38.3% / 58.3% |
26.4 / 37.8 |
7 |
HOU |
7 – 20 L |
-12.6 |
45.7% / 36.0% |
8.7% / 4.0% |
2.4% / 0.0% |
4.1 / 5.2 |
31.8% / 51.3% |
27.3% / 12.8% |
3.2 / 3.7 |
68 / 64 |
41.7% / 47.7% |
41.2% / 45.3% |
13.1% / 21.2% |
3.8 / 4.3 |
2.9% / 0.0% |
32.4% / 60.9% |
20.0 / 36.3 |
8 |
PHI |
18 – 24 L |
-2.2 |
44.4% / 52.9% |
8.9% / 11.8% |
0.0% / 3.3% |
5.9 / 7.7 |
64.7% / 41.9% |
17.6% / 12.9% |
4.1 / 4.4 |
62 / 65 |
52.2% / 50.0% |
50.0% / 47.7% |
34.3% / 62.6% |
5.4 / 6.1 |
1.6% / 1.5% |
27.4% / 47.7% |
29.0 / 26.9 |
10 |
@IND |
26 – 29 L |
-7.6 |
56.4% / 55.2% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 3.4% |
8.3 / 9.8 |
50.0% / 32.0% |
32.4% / 32.0% |
2.7 / 3.4 |
73 / 54 |
50.9% / 47.4% |
53.4% / 44.4% |
37.3% / 60.4% |
5.7 / 6.8 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
46.6% / 46.3% |
31.0 / 24.1 |
11 |
PIT |
16 – 20 L |
6.1 |
25.0% / 46.8% |
25.0% / 4.3% |
0.0% / 6.7% |
2.7 / 6.3 |
53.5% / 36.4% |
20.9% / 27.3% |
4.2 / 2.4 |
67 / 58 |
46.9% / 51.1% |
43.3% / 44.8% |
44.9% / 49.2% |
3.6 / 5.6 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
64.2% / 19.0% |
32.1 / 26.2 |
12 |
@BUF |
21 – 24 L |
-4.4 |
42.3% / 36.8% |
11.5% / 0.0% |
8.7% / 0.0% |
4.1 / 8.4 |
53.8% / 45.9% |
23.1% / 16.2% |
5.8 / 4.6 |
65 / 56 |
51.9% / 52.4% |
49.2% / 42.9% |
62.8% / 50.5% |
5.1 / 5.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
60.0% / 66.1% |
24.6 / 31.5 |
13 |
IND |
6 – 0 W |
2.3 |
44.4% / 41.8% |
11.1% / 5.5% |
0.0% / 1.9% |
4.9 / 4.1 |
33.3% / 18.8% |
33.3% / 25.0% |
2.9 / 2.6 |
54 / 71 |
38.5% / 42.0% |
38.9% / 36.6% |
16.1% / 11.7% |
3.9 / 3.7 |
1.9% / 1.4% |
50.0% / 22.5% |
21.9 / 31.0 |
14 |
@TEN |
9 – 30 L |
-13.6 |
42.6% / 56.0% |
8.5% / 4.0% |
0.0% / 4.2% |
4.1 / 6.5 |
57.1% / 44.1% |
19.0% / 26.5% |
2.9 / 7.8 |
68 / 59 |
57.1% / 51.2% |
47.1% / 49.2% |
34.8% / 60.7% |
3.8 / 7.3 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
30.9% / 57.6% |
24.3 / 33.5 |
15 |
WAS |
13 – 16 L |
1.6 |
17.4% / 39.3% |
26.1% / 10.7% |
5.9% / 0.0% |
0.9 / 4.9 |
42.3% / 37.1% |
23.1% / 31.4% |
6.6 / 3.1 |
49 / 63 |
27.8% / 37.8% |
30.6% / 38.1% |
67.7% / 30.1% |
3.9 / 3.9 |
2.0% / 0.0% |
53.1% / 55.6% |
23.9 / 31.5 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
TEN |
27 – 17 W |
3.5 |
55.2% / 36.8% |
3.4% / 0.0% |
7.1% / 7.9% |
7.7 / 5.8 |
53.3% / 44.8% |
26.7% / 17.2% |
4.1 / 4.0 |
59 / 67 |
66.7% / 41.2% |
54.2% / 40.3% |
44.3% / 17.0% |
5.8 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
50.8% / 43.3% |
35.5 / 29.2 |
2 |
@NYJ |
20 – 12 W |
9.2 |
44.4% / 43.2% |
14.8% / 6.8% |
0.0% / 4.9% |
4.5 / 7.3 |
52.9% / 26.3% |
26.5% / 36.8% |
4.1 / 2.2 |
61 / 63 |
55.8% / 39.6% |
49.2% / 38.1% |
36.2% / 50.3% |
4.3 / 5.7 |
3.3% / 1.6% |
55.7% / 30.2% |
34.4 / 24.1 |
3 |
OAK |
28 – 20 W |
-2.8 |
48.0% / 57.1% |
4.0% / 7.1% |
0.0% / 5.1% |
13.3 / 7.7 |
20.0% / 55.9% |
33.3% / 14.7% |
2.8 / 3.3 |
40 / 76 |
43.3% / 62.1% |
37.5% / 56.6% |
62.8% / 32.6% |
9.4 / 5.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
37.5% / 44.7% |
30.6 / 19.7 |
4 |
@NE |
7 – 38 L |
-19.6 |
33.3% / 42.9% |
7.4% / 0.0% |
4.0% / 5.7% |
4.3 / 7.8 |
11.1% / 34.9% |
38.9% / 18.6% |
3.1 / 4.1 |
45 / 78 |
21.2% / 34.5% |
24.4% / 38.5% |
20.9% / 45.1% |
3.8 / 5.8 |
2.2% / 0.0% |
40.0% / 55.1% |
29.5 / 32.0 |
5 |
@CIN |
17 – 27 L |
4.6 |
77.3% / 68.2% |
13.6% / 9.1% |
10.5% / 5.0% |
7.7 / 10.4 |
45.5% / 29.6% |
13.6% / 25.9% |
5.8 / 3.9 |
44 / 49 |
48.9% / 45.7% |
61.4% / 46.9% |
25.3% / 52.9% |
6.8 / 6.8 |
2.3% / 0.0% |
50.0% / 55.1% |
25.5 / 22.9 |
6 |
CHI |
31 – 28 W |
0.3 |
48.8% / 54.5% |
0.0% / 6.1% |
4.7% / 3.2% |
8.8 / 9.2 |
58.1% / 43.8% |
9.7% / 9.4% |
5.2 / 5.2 |
74 / 65 |
53.4% / 48.0% |
52.7% / 49.2% |
48.2% / 60.7% |
7.3 / 7.2 |
1.4% / 3.1% |
41.9% / 49.2% |
28.7 / 25.3 |
7 |
DET |
21 – 32 L |
-8.1 |
48.6% / 60.9% |
11.4% / 4.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.1 / 9.1 |
47.4% / 54.1% |
26.3% / 21.6% |
5.6 / 6.8 |
54 / 60 |
46.5% / 66.0% |
48.1% / 56.7% |
40.4% / 60.8% |
6.0 / 7.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
35.2% / 61.7% |
25.2 / 23.0 |
8 |
@HOU |
23 – 42 L |
-7.4 |
40.0% / 45.0% |
5.0% / 0.0% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
6.4 / 12.0 |
64.0% / 38.9% |
20.0% / 19.4% |
4.6 / 5.3 |
65 / 56 |
54.9% / 39.0% |
49.2% / 41.1% |
34.3% / 64.0% |
5.7 / 7.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
38.5% / 64.3% |
25.3 / 29.7 |
9 |
NYJ |
13 – 6 W |
3.2 |
42.9% / 34.9% |
14.3% / 9.3% |
0.0% / 10.3% |
3.7 / 4.7 |
24.1% / 38.1% |
24.1% / 28.6% |
2.3 / 3.8 |
57 / 64 |
40.0% / 42.9% |
33.3% / 35.9% |
15.3% / 41.8% |
3.0 / 4.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
50.9% / 32.8% |
32.4 / 18.4 |
10 |
@GB |
12 – 31 L |
-9.9 |
37.2% / 50.0% |
14.0% / 6.7% |
2.7% / 0.0% |
3.8 / 6.1 |
56.5% / 50.0% |
13.0% / 10.7% |
5.7 / 7.1 |
66 / 58 |
45.8% / 58.5% |
43.9% / 50.0% |
38.1% / 54.5% |
4.5 / 6.6 |
1.5% / 1.7% |
34.8% / 48.3% |
31.4 / 35.7 |
12 |
@IND |
24 – 27 L |
2.2 |
42.3% / 61.5% |
3.8% / 2.6% |
0.0% / 5.3% |
7.7 / 8.6 |
42.3% / 53.8% |
26.9% / 19.2% |
4.4 / 4.5 |
52 / 65 |
46.2% / 62.7% |
42.3% / 58.5% |
55.6% / 46.6% |
6.1 / 7.0 |
1.9% / 1.5% |
50.0% / 40.0% |
28.8 / 24.4 |
13 |
BUF |
21 – 17 W |
4.1 |
51.9% / 37.1% |
11.1% / 5.7% |
4.2% / 6.1% |
4.3 / 6.2 |
28.0% / 51.6% |
40.0% / 22.6% |
2.5 / 6.4 |
52 / 66 |
48.7% / 46.2% |
40.4% / 43.9% |
16.9% / 68.0% |
3.4 / 6.3 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
48.1% / 47.0% |
28.6 / 23.4 |
14 |
NE |
34 – 33 W |
-2.0 |
45.8% / 53.3% |
20.8% / 4.4% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
9.3 / 7.6 |
71.4% / 33.3% |
14.3% / 23.3% |
9.0 / 2.6 |
45 / 75 |
65.8% / 42.4% |
57.8% / 45.3% |
58.5% / 28.0% |
9.2 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
46.7% / 40.0% |
25.3 / 35.3 |
15 |
@MIN |
17 – 41 L |
-13.1 |
21.2% / 52.2% |
27.3% / 8.7% |
0.0% / 4.8% |
1.1 / 8.6 |
45.0% / 52.4% |
25.0% / 14.3% |
7.8 / 5.3 |
53 / 65 |
36.8% / 59.2% |
30.2% / 52.3% |
64.2% / 57.9% |
3.6 / 6.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
37.7% / 64.6% |
25.2 / 39.4 |