Jacksonville Jaguars @

Los Angeles Chargers

Sun, Sep 25
1:05 PM Pacific
Rotation: 479
Odds: Los Angeles Chargers -6.5, Total: 44.5

Game Analysis

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LA CHARGERS (-6.5) vs Jacksonville

Lean – Under if Herbert is OUT

· Justin Herbert fractured rib cartilage late in the game versus the Chiefs last week. The typical return to play is two-to-four weeks but with his 10 days of rest he might be under center today. It looks like it will come down to the wire.

· We have the Pro Bowl quarterback worth 7 points, but the market will likely be Chargers by 7 with Herbert in and Chargers by 2 with Herbert out because the points from 2-7 are particularly valuable.

· The current price between 3 and 3.5 is insinuating Herbert’s probability of being at the helm is between 20-25% on Sunday.

· Los Angeles already has 23 targets to RBs (2nd) and Herbert will likely try to get the ball out quickly to avoid taking hits if he is in uniform. The Jaguars have surrendered 138 receiving yards to opposing running backs in two games under new defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell. Backup QB Chase Daniel is captain check down so he will certainly look for RB Austin Ekeler as well if given the starting duties.

· Trevor Lawrence has some chemistry with his new WR Christian Kirk, who is averaging 2.61 yards per route run when lined up on the inside. However, Chargers nickelback Bryce Callahan is conceding just 0.26 yards per cover snap in the slot (2nd) and will shut down Kirk.

· Jacksonville RT Jawaan Taylor has not allowed a single pressure this season which is unlikely to continue this week across from Pro Bowl DE Joey Bosa.

· Los Angeles CB JC Jackson has 17 interceptions over the past two seasons, but it looks like he will be sidelined again for the second game in three weeks and he is worth a half point.

· Herbert has been upgraded to probable and starting but he probably won’t be 100% and may not make it through the entire game..

· Our model has Chargers by 8.5 with a predicted total of 51.0 if Herbert is 100%. However, I’d make the line 6.7 and 48.0 given the circumstances. Best to pass this one.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Jaguars
  • Chargers
JAC
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 0.00 0.00
  • Succ Pass Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Sack Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • NYPP 0.00 0.00



Rush


  • Rush Plays 0.00 0.00
  • RB YPR 0.00 0.00
  • Stuff Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 0.00 0.00




Game

  • All Snaps 0.00 0.00
  • Early Down Succ 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Play 0.00 0.00
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 0.00 0.00
  • Run Ratio 0.0% 0.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control 0.00 0.00
 
  • Points 0.00 0.00
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