Game Analysis

Jacksonville (-5) vs INDIANAPOLIS

Lean – Over (45.5)

· Trevor Lawrence went from 26th in EPA/play as a rookie to 9th in his first season with Doug Peterson and now the Jaguars add a bona fide alpha wide receiver to the mix.

· WR Calvin Ridley was added to the Jags’ receiving corps and they’re hoping he returns to the form of a few seasons ago. Ridley averaged 2.44 yards per route run during his last full season in 2020, which ranked 6th in NFL. Ridley was particularly effective versus man coverage and led the league with 16 deep receptions which is defined by a pass of 20 or more air yards. Jaguars WR Zay Jones averaged 0.34 EPA/target last year, Christian Kirk averaged 0.24 EPA/target, while Jacksonville’s offense gained only 0.14 EPA/target when throwing to Marvin Jones. Ridley will be a major improvement stepping in for Marvin Jones.

· After getting progressively worse each season from 2018 to 2021, Doug Peterson was able to resurrect tight end Evan Engram’s career last year by taking advantage of his speed. Engram went from gaining 4.3 yards after the catch in 2021 to 6.6 in 2022. Jacksonville’s success rate when targeting Evan Engram was 59%, ranking 2nd among tight ends, and the Jags signed him to a 3-year, $41.25M contract this offseason.

· Jawaan Taylor and Cam Robinson both ranked above average in PFF pass blocking grade last season for the Jaguars. However, Taylor moved on to the Chiefs and Robinson has been suspended four games by the NFL for violating the league’s performance-enhancing drug policy. This leaves Jacksonville for the first month of the season starting late first-round rookie Anton Harrison and Walker Little, who surrendered a 10% pressure rate last year. For reference, Taylor and Robinson averaged conceding just a 3.7% pressure rate in 2022.

· Edge defender Arden Key is out the door for Jacksonville, and you could argue he single-handily willed the Jaguars to the playoffs in week 18 with those 9 pressures against the Titans. Jacksonville’s defense will need a major leap from Travon Walker, the first overall pick in last year’s draft, to replace Key.

· We usually don’t adjust too much for RBs but this Jonathan Taylor situation seems like a unique case. Taylor ranked 6th in rushing yards over expected and new head coach Shane Steichen doesn’t have the option to just pass more often due to an inconsistent rookie QB (just 53.8% completions at the University of Florida last season) and mediocre receivers. The Colts will be about a half-yard per carry worse without Taylor which is worth 2% in win probability every game he misses.

· The Colts didn’t add any new pieces to an offensive line that ranked 31st in pass-block win rate last year. This has a chance to be a Justin Field situation where it’s hard to evaluate Anthony Richardson because the supporting cast is so poor.

· The Indianapolis defense finished 24th in market ratings last season and they lost the production of Stephon Gilmore, who ranked 6th in PFF coverage grade. Colts CB Isaiah Rogers ranked 10th in successful coverage over expected but was suspended and then cut. Indianapolis might have the two worst boundary cornerbacks in the NFL but at least Kenny Moore is solid in the slot.

· The Colts defense also loses top 20 LB Bobby Okereke, but they return former All-Pro linebacker Shaquille Leonard, who only took 74 snaps last season. However, Leonard is dealing with a concussion this week.

· The Indianapolis defensive line is around league average led by the interior defenders. DeForest Buckner finished 9th in pass-rushing efficiency last year and had 33 run stops alongside Grover Stewart, who had 30 run stops (both ranked top 10). On the edge, they add Samson Ebukam, who was solid in the 49ers pass rushing mix last season, but I think it could be a little more of a struggle for him on his new team without benefitting from Nick Bosa taking so much attention.

· Our model favors the Jaguars by 4.6 points with a predicted total of 46.7 points.