Game Analysis
HOUSTON (-6.5) vs Jacksonville
The Texans can clinch the AFC South and a home playoff game with a win, otherwise, the winner of Indianapolis versus Tennessee will take the division. Houston will face Blake Bortles, back under center after Jacksonville’s offense averaged less than 4 yards per play with Cody Kessler as the starter. We had the Jaguars offense ranked 31st in the league with Kessler, but our quarterback metric shows Bortles playing nearly 6 points better per game this season and Doug Marrone definitely made the right call on switching back to his original starter if his goal is to win the game. Bortles will go up against a Texans defense ranked 4th by our numbers, but there are some indicators pointing in his direction. Jacksonville’s offensive line has suffered numerous injuries, but the best player remaining is probably Josh Wells, definitely the guy you’d want in front of J.J. Watt. Wells has not conceded a sack in 189 pass blocking snaps this season. Houston cornerbacks Johnathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson are both listed as questionable, which could add salt to the wound after fellow cornerback Kayvon Webster had to be placed on the IR for the second time this season after making his return last week.
The Texans are also suffering from cluster injuries at wide receiver with Key’vantanie Coutee listed as questionable and Demaryius Thomas now out for the season along with Will Fuller. However, Thomas never really got settled in Houston, gaining just 1.27 yards per route run, and we have him valued at just 0.3 points. Deshaun Watson probably won’t get any help from the ground game, as Jacksonville’s rush defense ranks 5th, and he will need top receiver DeAndre Hopkins in prime form as he likely won’t have much time in the pocket either. It looks like Jags’ DE Yannick Ngakoue will finish in the top 15 in pass rush efficiency for the 2nd-straight season and he will wreak havoc on the edge versus Julie’n Davenport, one of two tackles in the NFL to surrender double-digit sacks thus far.
The Texans closed as 4-point underdogs in week 7 to the Jaguars, but now find themselves are 7-point favorites. Our model tends to agree with the move as we favor Houston by 7.7 points.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.3
31.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.9%
45.8%
-
Sack Rate
10.6%
6.5%
-
Int Rate
2.7%
2.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
13.8%
18.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
33.8%
36.7%
-
NYPP
5.4
6.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.1
27.8
-
RB YPR
3.6
3.5
-
Stuff Rate
20.6%
24.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
47.3%
36.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
35.4%
41.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.2
3.9
Game
-
All Snaps
62.4
59.6
-
Early Down Succ
46.7%
44.6%
-
Succ Rate
46.5%
42.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
37.5%
41.0%
-
Yards Per Play
5.0
5.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.6%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.5
29.7
-
Run Ratio
43.3%
46.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.0
29.2
-
Game Control
-2.4
2.4
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.0
39.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.3%
48.4%
-
Sack Rate
10.7%
7.2%
-
Int Rate
2.0%
2.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.6%
18.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
39.6%
41.2%
-
NYPP
7.1
7.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.9
24.9
-
RB YPR
3.5
3.1
-
Stuff Rate
23.9%
27.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
40.9%
40.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.2%
32.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.1
3.5
Game
-
All Snaps
63.9
64.3
-
Early Down Succ
47.2%
45.4%
-
Succ Rate
45.0%
45.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.2%
39.1%
-
Yards Per Play
5.7
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
1.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.6
29.2
-
Run Ratio
46.8%
39.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
31.1
25.3
-
Game Control
2.3
-2.3
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@NYG |
20 – 15 W |
3.9 |
44.1% /
28.2% |
2.9% /
5.1% |
3.0% /
2.7% |
4.9 /
5.4 |
36.7% /
34.8% |
16.7% /
30.4% |
4.6 /
5.0 |
64 /
62 |
46.8% /
31.9% |
40.6% /
30.6% |
38.8% /
38.0% |
4.8 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
46.9% /
37.1% |
31.5 /
25.3 |
| 2 |
NE |
31 – 20 W |
13.1 |
57.8% /
48.6% |
0.0% /
5.4% |
2.2% /
0.0% |
8.4 /
5.9 |
36.0% /
36.0% |
16.0% /
12.0% |
4.2 /
3.3 |
70 /
62 |
46.3% /
47.9% |
50.0% /
43.5% |
42.7% /
38.3% |
6.9 /
4.9 |
1.4% /
1.6% |
35.7% /
40.3% |
25.7 /
30.1 |
| 3 |
TEN |
6 – 9 L |
-1.5 |
37.8% /
45.8% |
8.1% /
12.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
3.9 /
3.5 |
52.6% /
42.9% |
15.8% /
25.7% |
4.6 /
4.3 |
56 /
59 |
46.3% /
47.7% |
42.9% /
44.1% |
10.3% /
34.3% |
4.1 /
3.9 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
33.9% /
59.3% |
23.3 /
28.2 |
| 4 |
NYJ |
31 – 12 W |
10.3 |
57.5% /
32.4% |
5.0% /
8.1% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
9.4 /
3.9 |
38.2% /
28.6% |
20.6% /
35.7% |
3.7 /
2.4 |
74 /
51 |
50.0% /
35.1% |
48.6% /
31.4% |
50.5% /
23.6% |
6.8 /
3.5 |
2.7% /
0.0% |
45.9% /
27.5% |
26.8 /
29.8 |
| 5 |
@KC |
14 – 30 L |
-14.4 |
73.7% /
87.0% |
13.2% /
4.3% |
12.1% /
9.1% |
10.6 /
13.0 |
70.6% /
28.1% |
5.9% /
25.0% |
5.9 /
4.0 |
55 /
55 |
48.4% /
45.5% |
72.7% /
52.7% |
49.8% /
49.3% |
9.1 /
7.7 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
30.9% /
58.2% |
28.3 /
21.3 |
| 6 |
@DAL |
7 – 40 L |
-18.5 |
48.3% /
36.7% |
10.3% /
10.0% |
3.8% /
0.0% |
4.8 /
5.7 |
38.9% /
45.2% |
16.7% /
23.8% |
3.6 /
4.9 |
47 /
72 |
48.6% /
39.6% |
44.7% /
41.7% |
32.4% /
45.0% |
4.3 /
5.3 |
2.1% /
0.0% |
38.3% /
58.3% |
26.4 /
37.8 |
| 7 |
HOU |
7 – 20 L |
-12.6 |
45.7% /
36.0% |
8.7% /
4.0% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
4.1 /
5.2 |
31.8% /
51.3% |
27.3% /
12.8% |
3.2 /
3.7 |
68 /
64 |
41.7% /
47.7% |
41.2% /
45.3% |
13.1% /
21.2% |
3.8 /
4.3 |
2.9% /
0.0% |
32.4% /
60.9% |
20.0 /
36.3 |
| 8 |
PHI |
18 – 24 L |
-2.2 |
44.4% /
52.9% |
8.9% /
11.8% |
0.0% /
3.3% |
5.9 /
7.7 |
64.7% /
41.9% |
17.6% /
12.9% |
4.1 /
4.4 |
62 /
65 |
52.2% /
50.0% |
50.0% /
47.7% |
34.3% /
62.6% |
5.4 /
6.1 |
1.6% /
1.5% |
27.4% /
47.7% |
29.0 /
26.9 |
| 10 |
@IND |
26 – 29 L |
-7.6 |
56.4% /
55.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
3.4% |
8.3 /
9.8 |
50.0% /
32.0% |
32.4% /
32.0% |
2.7 /
3.4 |
73 /
54 |
50.9% /
47.4% |
53.4% /
44.4% |
37.3% /
60.4% |
5.7 /
6.8 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
46.6% /
46.3% |
31.0 /
24.1 |
| 11 |
PIT |
16 – 20 L |
6.1 |
25.0% /
46.8% |
25.0% /
4.3% |
0.0% /
6.7% |
2.7 /
6.3 |
53.5% /
36.4% |
20.9% /
27.3% |
4.2 /
2.4 |
67 /
58 |
46.9% /
51.1% |
43.3% /
44.8% |
44.9% /
49.2% |
3.6 /
5.6 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
64.2% /
19.0% |
32.1 /
26.2 |
| 12 |
@BUF |
21 – 24 L |
-4.4 |
42.3% /
36.8% |
11.5% /
0.0% |
8.7% /
0.0% |
4.1 /
8.4 |
53.8% /
45.9% |
23.1% /
16.2% |
5.8 /
4.6 |
65 /
56 |
51.9% /
52.4% |
49.2% /
42.9% |
62.8% /
50.5% |
5.1 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
60.0% /
66.1% |
24.6 /
31.5 |
| 13 |
IND |
6 – 0 W |
2.3 |
44.4% /
41.8% |
11.1% /
5.5% |
0.0% /
1.9% |
4.9 /
4.1 |
33.3% /
18.8% |
33.3% /
25.0% |
2.9 /
2.6 |
54 /
71 |
38.5% /
42.0% |
38.9% /
36.6% |
16.1% /
11.7% |
3.9 /
3.7 |
1.9% /
1.4% |
50.0% /
22.5% |
21.9 /
31.0 |
| 14 |
@TEN |
9 – 30 L |
-13.6 |
42.6% /
56.0% |
8.5% /
4.0% |
0.0% /
4.2% |
4.1 /
6.5 |
57.1% /
44.1% |
19.0% /
26.5% |
2.9 /
7.8 |
68 /
59 |
57.1% /
51.2% |
47.1% /
49.2% |
34.8% /
60.7% |
3.8 /
7.3 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
30.9% /
57.6% |
24.3 /
33.5 |
| 15 |
WAS |
13 – 16 L |
1.6 |
17.4% /
39.3% |
26.1% /
10.7% |
5.9% /
0.0% |
0.9 /
4.9 |
42.3% /
37.1% |
23.1% /
31.4% |
6.6 /
3.1 |
49 /
63 |
27.8% /
37.8% |
30.6% /
38.1% |
67.7% /
30.1% |
3.9 /
3.9 |
2.0% /
0.0% |
53.1% /
55.6% |
23.9 /
31.5 |
| 16 |
@MIA |
17 – 7 W |
0.7 |
36.7% /
44.0% |
20.0% /
12.0% |
0.0% /
4.5% |
3.9 /
4.8 |
50.0% /
27.8% |
20.6% /
27.8% |
3.8 /
3.4 |
64 /
43 |
46.8% /
41.2% |
43.8% /
37.2% |
27.6% /
39.9% |
3.8 /
4.3 |
1.6% /
2.3% |
53.1% /
41.9% |
36.8 /
24.1 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@NE |
20 – 27 L |
-10.6 |
29.7% /
48.8% |
8.1% /
4.9% |
2.9% /
2.6% |
4.3 /
6.5 |
45.7% /
38.7% |
25.7% /
9.7% |
4.8 /
3.9 |
72 /
72 |
43.1% /
47.4% |
37.5% /
44.4% |
37.4% /
38.0% |
4.5 /
5.4 |
1.4% /
2.8% |
48.6% /
43.1% |
35.4 /
25.4 |
| 2 |
@TEN |
17 – 20 L |
-6.4 |
48.6% /
39.1% |
11.4% /
4.3% |
3.2% /
0.0% |
8.3 /
8.0 |
42.3% /
35.3% |
11.5% /
14.7% |
5.7 /
2.9 |
61 /
57 |
46.0% /
35.0% |
45.9% /
36.8% |
53.1% /
27.9% |
7.2 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
42.6% /
59.6% |
26.6 /
23.2 |
| 3 |
NYG |
22 – 27 L |
-7.6 |
53.7% /
60.6% |
7.3% /
12.1% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
9.0 /
8.0 |
42.1% /
32.1% |
36.8% /
25.0% |
3.1 /
4.1 |
60 /
61 |
50.0% /
47.8% |
50.0% /
47.5% |
53.4% /
41.3% |
7.1 /
6.2 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
31.7% /
45.9% |
28.9 /
22.2 |
| 4 |
@IND |
37 – 34 W |
6.7 |
55.3% /
48.5% |
14.9% /
6.1% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
7.4 /
6.6 |
42.9% /
41.2% |
28.6% /
41.2% |
3.4 /
2.4 |
82 /
83 |
49.2% /
44.6% |
50.0% /
47.0% |
37.1% /
26.6% |
5.7 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
2.4% |
42.7% /
20.5% |
33.4 /
24.1 |
| 5 |
DAL |
19 – 16 W |
-0.3 |
79.4% /
65.0% |
2.9% /
10.0% |
3.0% /
11.1% |
11.0 /
9.7 |
32.3% /
36.7% |
32.3% /
30.0% |
2.8 /
3.3 |
65 /
50 |
53.3% /
43.2% |
56.9% /
48.0% |
30.1% /
52.9% |
7.1 /
5.9 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
47.7% /
60.0% |
27.9 /
30.8 |
| 6 |
BUF |
20 – 13 W |
4.3 |
27.3% /
29.0% |
21.2% /
6.5% |
7.7% /
6.9% |
4.3 /
4.2 |
36.0% /
40.7% |
28.0% /
22.2% |
3.0 /
3.7 |
58 /
58 |
34.9% /
32.6% |
31.0% /
34.5% |
34.1% /
46.3% |
3.7 /
3.9 |
1.7% /
1.7% |
43.1% /
46.6% |
36.5 /
28.2 |
| 7 |
@JAC |
20 – 7 W |
12.6 |
36.0% /
45.7% |
4.0% /
8.7% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
5.2 /
4.1 |
51.3% /
31.8% |
12.8% /
27.3% |
3.7 /
3.2 |
64 /
68 |
47.7% /
41.7% |
45.3% /
41.2% |
21.2% /
13.1% |
4.3 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
2.9% |
60.9% /
32.4% |
36.3 /
20.0 |
| 8 |
MIA |
42 – 23 W |
7.4 |
45.0% /
40.0% |
0.0% /
5.0% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
12.0 /
6.4 |
38.9% /
64.0% |
19.4% /
20.0% |
5.3 /
4.6 |
56 /
65 |
39.0% /
54.9% |
41.1% /
49.2% |
64.0% /
34.3% |
7.6 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
64.3% /
38.5% |
29.7 /
25.3 |
| 9 |
@DEN |
19 – 17 W |
3.8 |
53.6% /
47.7% |
14.3% /
4.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.9 /
6.2 |
39.4% /
35.0% |
30.3% /
40.0% |
3.0 /
3.8 |
61 /
64 |
51.1% /
43.8% |
45.9% /
43.8% |
10.7% /
38.5% |
4.8 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
54.1% /
31.3% |
31.4 /
22.5 |
| 11 |
@WAS |
23 – 21 W |
4.8 |
51.9% /
35.7% |
11.1% /
11.9% |
8.3% /
5.4% |
6.7 /
3.7 |
40.6% /
58.6% |
18.8% /
13.8% |
4.4 /
4.3 |
59 /
71 |
50.0% /
45.5% |
45.8% /
45.1% |
44.2% /
19.4% |
5.4 /
3.9 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
54.2% /
40.8% |
31.8 /
34.4 |
| 12 |
TEN |
34 – 17 W |
8.6 |
66.7% /
48.3% |
14.8% /
20.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
9.0 |
45.7% /
34.8% |
8.6% /
26.1% |
8.1 /
4.6 |
62 /
52 |
60.4% /
46.2% |
54.8% /
42.3% |
57.9% /
55.6% |
7.5 /
7.0 |
0.0% /
1.9% |
56.5% /
44.2% |
25.7 /
24.8 |
| 13 |
CLE |
29 – 13 W |
14.2 |
45.7% /
58.5% |
11.4% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
7.3% |
5.6 /
9.7 |
47.5% /
55.6% |
7.5% /
33.3% |
4.7 /
3.4 |
75 /
50 |
47.4% /
63.4% |
46.7% /
58.0% |
37.1% /
52.6% |
5.1 /
8.6 |
0.0% /
2.0% |
53.3% /
18.0% |
29.5 /
19.9 |
| 14 |
IND |
21 – 24 L |
-3.4 |
39.5% /
58.1% |
11.6% /
4.7% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
5.3 /
9.0 |
44.0% /
30.8% |
28.0% /
26.9% |
3.6 /
2.0 |
68 /
69 |
41.2% /
55.8% |
41.2% /
47.8% |
45.1% /
49.0% |
4.6 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.8% /
37.7% |
22.3 /
25.3 |
| 15 |
@NYJ |
29 – 22 W |
3.8 |
44.1% /
48.8% |
17.6% /
7.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.0 /
5.6 |
27.8% /
35.5% |
44.4% /
35.5% |
2.7 /
2.9 |
52 /
72 |
46.3% /
40.4% |
38.5% /
43.1% |
74.2% /
34.3% |
5.5 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
34.6% /
43.1% |
35.6 /
28.5 |
| 16 |
@PHI |
30 – 32 L |
-2.8 |
47.7% /
52.0% |
9.1% /
2.0% |
0.0% /
2.0% |
7.0 /
9.2 |
36.8% /
31.8% |
26.3% /
45.5% |
3.3 /
2.6 |
63 /
72 |
48.1% /
38.5% |
44.4% /
45.8% |
33.4% /
57.2% |
5.9 /
7.2 |
1.6% /
2.8% |
30.2% /
30.6% |
36.2 /
24.8 |
Jacksonville Jaguars
@ 
Houston Texans