Jacksonville Jaguars
@ 
Houston Texans
Game Analysis
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Opinion – Jacksonville (+5.5) over HOUSTON
Houston was a worse than average team last season, as their 9-7 regular season record was a result of being a randomly good 8-2 in games decided by 7 points or fewer. The Texans’ -49 point differential projects to just 6.5 wins and is a better indication of their level of play last season. Houston appears to be a bit overrated even with a defense will likely improve with a healthy JJ Watt and better quarterback play. That expected improvement appears to already be priced in based on their season win total, which at 8.5 wins is a full two wins higher than their points expected win total of last season and looks to be a bit optimistic. Plus, the Texans didn’t sign any free agents of note and lose a valuable cornerback in AJ Bouye to Jacksonville.
In addition to Bouye, the Jaguars added Malik Jackson and Calais Campbell to a defense that already ranked 12th in EPA/play last season. In fact, outside of quarterback, the Jaguars profile as a fringe playoff team across the board. The problem, of course, is Blake Bortles – and despite a rocky preseason, he’s won the starting job over Chad Henne. Bortles will hold his team back, but Jacksonville should improve this season and I don’t see Houston living up to expectations.
- Team Stats
- Game Log
- Jaguars
- Texans
JAC
Offense
Defense
Pass
- Pass Plays 41.4 36.2
- Succ Pass Plays 42.2% 43.2%
- Sack Rate 5.6% 6.1%
- Int Rate 2.5% 1.0%
- Deep Pass Rate 18.5% 16.3%
- Big Pass Yards 30.3% 35.5%
- NYPP 5.6 6.1
Rush
- Rush Plays 24.9 28.9
- RB YPR 3.7 3.5
- Stuff Rate 25.0% 23.7%
- Succ Rush Plays 43.7% 40.0%
- Big Rush Yards 36.7% 37.1%
- Yards Per Rush 4.1 3.6
Game
- All Snaps 66.3 65.1
- Early Down Succ 45.9% 44.4%
- Succ Rate 43.0% 41.5%
- Big Yards Rate 33.8% 38.7%
- Yards Per Play 5.0 5.0
- Fumble Lost Rate 1.2% 1.2%
- Time Per Play (sec) 24.8 27.1
- Run Ratio 37.4% 44.8%
- Starting Field Pos 26.2 31.4
- Game Control -3.1 3.1
- Points 19.9 25.0
HOU
Offense
Defense
Pass
- Pass Plays 37.8 35.6
- Succ Pass Plays 42.0% 41.3%
- Sack Rate 5.2% 5.6%
- Int Rate 2.9% 2.5%
- Deep Pass Rate 16.5% 20.9%
- Big Pass Yards 25.6% 38.6%
- NYPP 5.2 5.8
Rush
- Rush Plays 30.0 25.4
- RB YPR 3.8 3.7
- Stuff Rate 21.8% 22.3%
- Succ Rush Plays 41.2% 43.4%
- Big Rush Yards 42.0% 39.6%
- Yards Per Rush 4.0 3.9
Game
- All Snaps 67.8 61.0
- Early Down Succ 44.4% 45.2%
- Succ Rate 41.4% 42.1%
- Big Yards Rate 33.7% 40.1%
- Yards Per Play 4.6 4.9
- Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 0.6%
- Time Per Play (sec) 28.1 28.3
- Run Ratio 44.1% 41.5%
- Starting Field Pos 29.2 29.8
- Game Control -2.0 2.0
- Points 17.9 20.9
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log | PASS | RUSH | GAMES | |||||||||||||||
| Wk | Opp | Score | Game Control | Succ Pass Plays | Sack Rate | Int Rate | NYPP | Succ Rush Plays | Stuff Rate | Yds per Rush | All Snaps | Early Down Succ | Succ Rate | Big Yards Rate | Yds per Play | Fum Lost Rate | Run Ratio | Starting Field Pos |
| 1 | GB | 23 – 27 L | -3.3 | 42.9% / 44.1% |
7.1% / 2.9% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
7.1 / 5.9 |
40.7% / 42.3% |
33.3% / 19.2% |
1.8 / 3.7 |
69 / 60 |
45.8% / 41.9% |
42.0% / 43.3% |
49.0% / 37.6% |
5.1 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
39.1% / 43.3% |
30.6 / 23.5 |
| 2 | @SD | 14 – 38 L | -21.2 | 42.3% / 46.4% |
3.8% / 10.7% |
4.0% / 0.0% |
6.1 / 7.4 |
63.6% / 44.4% |
18.2% / 19.4% |
6.3 / 4.2 |
63 / 64 |
52.0% / 45.8% |
46.0% / 45.3% |
42.8% / 60.2% |
6.2 / 5.6 |
1.6% / 1.6% |
17.5% / 56.3% |
22.0 / 40.3 |
| 3 | BAL | 17 – 19 L | -4.2 | 47.6% / 47.6% |
9.5% / 4.8% |
7.9% / 5.0% |
4.0 / 4.7 |
33.3% / 39.1% |
33.3% / 4.3% |
2.3 / 3.7 |
63 / 65 |
44.7% / 51.0% |
42.9% / 44.6% |
9.3% / 20.8% |
3.4 / 4.4 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
33.3% / 35.4% |
36.4 / 28.4 |
| 4 | IND | 30 – 27 W | 7.8 | 36.1% / 34.0% |
8.3% / 12.8% |
0.0% / 2.4% |
5.4 / 4.0 |
55.2% / 64.0% |
20.7% / 12.0% |
4.7 / 3.8 |
65 / 72 |
47.2% / 42.6% |
44.6% / 44.4% |
28.1% / 36.6% |
5.1 / 3.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
44.6% / 34.7% |
29.7 / 25.0 |
| 6 | @CHI | 17 – 16 W | -5.3 | 51.4% / 40.0% |
5.7% / 2.0% |
3.0% / 0.0% |
7.5 / 5.9 |
28.6% / 44.4% |
28.6% / 29.6% |
2.6 / 3.4 |
56 / 77 |
50.0% / 42.4% |
42.9% / 41.6% |
37.1% / 20.1% |
5.7 / 5.1 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
37.5% / 35.1% |
21.9 / 26.3 |
| 7 | OAK | 16 – 33 L | -9.5 | 31.8% / 35.1% |
2.3% / 0.0% |
4.7% / 0.0% |
5.4 / 5.4 |
29.4% / 50.0% |
17.6% / 22.2% |
6.2 / 4.1 |
61 / 73 |
32.6% / 44.0% |
31.1% / 42.5% |
59.4% / 42.8% |
5.7 / 4.7 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
27.9% / 49.3% |
21.7 / 40.2 |
| 8 | @TEN | 22 – 36 L | -17.5 | 53.6% / 60.9% |
3.6% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.8 / 12.2 |
45.5% / 37.2% |
36.4% / 23.3% |
4.4 / 5.0 |
67 / 66 |
54.7% / 41.2% |
52.2% / 45.5% |
35.1% / 56.1% |
5.5 / 7.5 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
16.4% / 65.2% |
24.2 / 31.4 |
| 9 | @KC | 14 – 19 L | -6.2 | 46.5% / 25.7% |
4.7% / 5.7% |
2.4% / 0.0% |
5.7 / 4.8 |
50.0% / 32.0% |
34.4% / 16.0% |
6.4 / 2.6 |
75 / 60 |
51.7% / 37.5% |
48.0% / 28.3% |
47.7% / 42.7% |
6.0 / 3.9 |
4.0% / 0.0% |
42.7% / 41.7% |
23.9 / 39.6 |
| 10 | HOU | 21 – 24 L | -6.0 | 43.1% / 35.7% |
3.9% / 3.6% |
2.0% / 0.0% |
4.8 / 3.3 |
36.4% / 48.5% |
31.8% / 33.3% |
3.6 / 5.5 |
73 / 61 |
36.4% / 42.2% |
41.1% / 42.6% |
7.3% / 41.0% |
4.5 / 4.5 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
30.1% / 54.1% |
24.4 / 33.6 |
| 11 | @DET | 19 – 26 L | -1.6 | 40.0% / 47.2% |
0.0% / 8.3% |
5.7% / 0.0% |
5.8 / 7.3 |
37.9% / 13.6% |
24.1% / 40.9% |
2.9 / 0.7 |
64 / 58 |
44.7% / 35.7% |
39.1% / 34.5% |
25.5% / 45.0% |
4.5 / 4.8 |
1.6% / 3.4% |
45.3% / 37.9% |
31.9 / 25.5 |
| 12 | @BUF | 21 – 28 L | 0.7 | 35.7% / 47.8% |
7.1% / 21.7% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.2 / 6.6 |
50.0% / 33.3% |
23.7% / 30.0% |
4.8 / 5.1 |
66 / 53 |
43.8% / 39.5% |
43.9% / 39.6% |
44.7% / 56.7% |
4.6 / 5.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
57.6% / 56.6% |
30.1 / 28.1 |
| 13 | DEN | 10 – 20 L | -5.0 | 32.6% / 34.6% |
2.3% / 7.7% |
4.8% / 0.0% |
4.2 / 3.9 |
47.4% / 35.7% |
13.2% / 21.4% |
4.1 / 3.7 |
81 / 54 |
41.0% / 43.9% |
39.5% / 35.2% |
12.9% / 22.8% |
4.1 / 3.8 |
1.2% / 0.0% |
46.9% / 51.9% |
23.9 / 32.5 |
| 14 | MIN | 16 – 25 L | -2.8 | 39.0% / 50.0% |
9.8% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.6 / 8.6 |
33.3% / 38.7% |
25.0% / 32.3% |
3.5 / 2.8 |
65 / 65 |
34.0% / 53.1% |
36.9% / 44.6% |
37.5% / 57.3% |
4.8 / 5.8 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
36.9% / 47.7% |
22.3 / 35.9 |
| 15 | @HOU | 20 – 21 L | 7.1 | 20.0% / 48.9% |
6.7% / 0.0% |
3.6% / 4.3% |
2.8 / 6.6 |
50.0% / 38.2% |
15.0% / 23.5% |
3.4 / 2.4 |
50 / 81 |
36.1% / 52.5% |
32.0% / 44.4% |
19.3% / 22.6% |
3.0 / 4.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
40.0% / 42.0% |
26.2 / 33.9 |
| 16 | TEN | 38 – 17 W | 10.5 | 58.1% / 41.3% |
9.3% / 8.7% |
0.0% / 2.4% |
7.7 / 4.5 |
48.3% / 38.1% |
24.1% / 38.1% |
2.9 / 2.8 |
72 / 67 |
62.5% / 44.9% |
54.2% / 40.3% |
45.0% / 17.0% |
5.8 / 3.9 |
1.4% / 9.0% |
40.3% / 31.3% |
22.3 / 30.5 |
| 17 | @IND | 20 – 24 L | 6.7 | 53.7% / 51.2% |
4.9% / 9.3% |
0.0% / 2.6% |
7.0 / 6.7 |
50.0% / 40.9% |
20.0% / 13.6% |
6.1 / 4.3 |
71 / 65 |
57.9% / 52.8% |
52.1% / 47.7% |
40.0% / 39.8% |
6.6 / 5.9 |
2.8% / 1.5% |
42.3% / 33.8% |
27.2 / 28.1 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log | PASS | RUSH | GAMES | |||||||||||||||
| Wk | Opp | Score | Game Control | Succ Pass Plays | Sack Rate | Int Rate | NYPP | Succ Rush Plays | Stuff Rate | Yds per Rush | All Snaps | Early Down Succ | Succ Rate | Big Yards Rate | Yds per Play | Fum Lost Rate | Run Ratio | Starting Field Pos |
| 1 | CHI | 23 – 14 W | -0.5 | 45.9% / 38.2% |
5.4% / 14.7% |
2.9% / 3.4% |
5.8 / 5.4 |
37.8% / 60.0% |
16.2% / 30.0% |
3.5 / 3.7 |
74 / 54 |
38.0% / 53.8% |
41.9% / 46.3% |
41.3% / 42.6% |
4.7 / 4.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
50.0% / 37.0% |
33.0 / 25.1 |
| 2 | KC | 19 – 12 W | 6.8 | 40.0% / 34.1% |
5.7% / 9.8% |
6.1% / 0.0% |
7.3 / 4.2 |
32.4% / 36.8% |
18.9% / 31.6% |
2.7 / 6.3 |
72 / 60 |
41.2% / 39.1% |
36.1% / 35.0% |
38.2% / 37.1% |
4.9 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 5.0% |
51.4% / 31.7% |
35.9 / 29.5 |
| 3 | @NE | 0 – 27 L | -13.1 | 48.8% / 40.0% |
4.7% / 5.0% |
2.4% / 0.0% |
4.1 / 4.9 |
40.7% / 48.8% |
22.2% / 22.0% |
4.0 / 4.6 |
70 / 61 |
50.0% / 54.5% |
45.7% / 45.9% |
13.4% / 51.1% |
4.1 / 4.7 |
2.9% / 0.0% |
38.6% / 67.2% |
15.6 / 40.5 |
| 4 | TEN | 27 – 20 W | 6.1 | 50.0% / 36.7% |
2.6% / 3.3% |
5.4% / 3.4% |
6.4 / 6.5 |
54.2% / 56.3% |
25.0% / 9.4% |
4.8 / 3.9 |
62 / 62 |
55.1% / 47.8% |
51.6% / 46.8% |
45.1% / 50.0% |
5.8 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
38.7% / 51.6% |
28.0 / 30.7 |
| 5 | @MIN | 13 – 31 L | -17.1 | 30.4% / 56.3% |
8.7% / 6.3% |
2.4% / 0.0% |
3.4 / 8.0 |
50.0% / 33.3% |
28.6% / 23.1% |
4.2 / 2.5 |
60 / 71 |
43.5% / 44.4% |
35.0% / 43.7% |
33.6% / 37.7% |
3.6 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
23.3% / 54.9% |
28.3 / 28.6 |
| 6 | IND | 26 – 23 W | -8.0 | 50.0% / 51.4% |
2.5% / 8.6% |
2.6% / 3.1% |
6.4 / 6.6 |
48.3% / 46.9% |
27.6% / 18.8% |
5.5 / 5.0 |
69 / 67 |
51.8% / 53.8% |
49.3% / 49.3% |
49.2% / 49.5% |
6.0 / 5.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
42.0% / 47.8% |
22.4 / 32.5 |
| 7 | @DEN | 9 – 27 L | -5.1 | 35.7% / 44.0% |
2.4% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
3.1 / 6.3 |
60.0% / 47.2% |
16.0% / 5.6% |
5.6 / 5.3 |
67 / 61 |
48.9% / 52.1% |
44.8% / 45.9% |
19.2% / 43.7% |
4.0 / 5.7 |
3.0% / 0.0% |
37.3% / 59.0% |
25.3 / 33.2 |
| 8 | DET | 20 – 13 W | 7.3 | 37.5% / 40.5% |
9.4% / 2.4% |
3.4% / 0.0% |
5.1 / 5.5 |
32.4% / 28.6% |
11.8% / 21.4% |
3.2 / 4.1 |
66 / 56 |
35.6% / 40.9% |
34.8% / 37.5% |
31.3% / 28.7% |
4.1 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
51.5% / 25.0% |
38.4 / 20.9 |
| 10 | @JAC | 24 – 21 W | 6.0 | 35.7% / 43.1% |
3.6% / 3.9% |
0.0% / 2.0% |
3.3 / 4.8 |
48.5% / 36.4% |
33.3% / 31.8% |
5.5 / 3.6 |
61 / 73 |
42.2% / 36.4% |
42.6% / 41.1% |
41.0% / 7.3% |
4.5 / 4.5 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
54.1% / 30.1% |
33.6 / 24.4 |
| 11 | @OAK | 20 – 27 L | 0.3 | 53.7% / 51.6% |
4.9% / 0.0% |
2.6% / 3.2% |
5.6 / 9.5 |
48.5% / 22.7% |
21.2% / 22.7% |
3.8 / 1.5 |
74 / 53 |
51.8% / 44.4% |
51.4% / 39.6% |
30.2% / 54.4% |
4.8 / 6.2 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
44.6% / 41.5% |
29.3 / 30.2 |
| 12 | SD | 13 – 21 L | -3.8 | 48.6% / 45.2% |
2.7% / 3.2% |
8.3% / 3.3% |
6.5 / 7.6 |
37.0% / 55.6% |
33.3% / 27.8% |
4.2 / 3.7 |
64 / 49 |
45.1% / 52.6% |
43.8% / 49.0% |
28.6% / 42.7% |
5.5 / 6.2 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
42.2% / 36.7% |
29.8 / 28.5 |
| 13 | @GB | 13 – 21 L | -3.7 | 40.5% / 51.6% |
5.4% / 3.2% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.0 / 6.5 |
40.7% / 50.0% |
25.9% / 30.8% |
4.6 / 4.2 |
64 / 57 |
40.4% / 55.8% |
40.6% / 50.9% |
38.1% / 46.9% |
4.8 / 5.4 |
1.6% / 1.8% |
42.2% / 45.6% |
21.8 / 38.0 |
| 14 | @IND | 22 – 17 W | 3.5 | 40.0% / 41.3% |
8.0% / 2.2% |
4.3% / 4.4% |
5.2 / 5.8 |
48.8% / 56.3% |
11.6% / 6.3% |
4.3 / 5.3 |
68 / 62 |
52.0% / 48.9% |
45.6% / 45.2% |
31.8% / 32.4% |
4.7 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
63.2% / 25.8% |
36.1 / 24.3 |
| 15 | JAC | 21 – 20 W | -7.1 | 48.9% / 20.0% |
0.0% / 6.7% |
4.3% / 3.6% |
6.6 / 2.8 |
38.2% / 50.0% |
23.5% / 15.0% |
2.4 / 3.4 |
81 / 50 |
52.5% / 36.1% |
44.4% / 32.0% |
22.6% / 19.3% |
4.8 / 3.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
42.0% / 40.0% |
33.9 / 26.2 |
| 16 | CIN | 12 – 10 W | -0.0 | 36.4% / 47.7% |
12.1% / 6.8% |
0.0% / 2.4% |
4.7 / 5.5 |
29.2% / 47.4% |
25.0% / 21.1% |
4.0 / 2.6 |
57 / 63 |
34.9% / 47.8% |
33.3% / 47.6% |
32.0% / 36.4% |
4.4 / 4.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
42.1% / 30.2% |
25.2 / 24.2 |
| 17 | @TEN | 17 – 24 L | -9.0 | 41.2% / 36.7% |
7.8% / 13.3% |
0.0% / 3.8% |
4.8 / 4.4 |
34.8% / 36.7% |
26.1% / 33.3% |
2.0 / 3.5 |
74 / 60 |
43.1% / 30.2% |
39.2% / 36.7% |
39.3% / 49.8% |
3.9 / 4.0 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
31.1% / 50.0% |
20.2 / 41.3 |
| 18 | OAK | 27 – 14 W | 9.6 | 40.0% / 27.1% |
0.0% / 6.3% |
0.0% / 6.7% |
6.7 / 2.9 |
26.1% / 28.6% |
17.4% / 38.1% |
2.7 / 3.0 |
71 / 69 |
34.6% / 31.4% |
31.0% / 27.5% |
59.0% / 31.0% |
4.1 / 2.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
64.8% / 30.4% |
34.7 / 27.1 |
| 19 | @NE | 16 – 34 L | -8.1 | 32.6% / 37.5% |
7.0% / 5.0% |
7.5% / 5.3% |
4.2 / 7.0 |
34.8% / 40.0% |
8.7% / 13.3% |
4.5 / 3.4 |
66 / 70 |
38.0% / 43.1% |
33.3% / 38.6% |
12.3% / 61.3% |
4.3 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
34.8% / 42.9% |
33.4 / 31.2 |