Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Jacksonville (+14 -115) over DETROIT

• The only way to justify this line being a two-touchdown point spread is by assuming the Jaguars are going to quit on coach Doug Pederson. Jacksonville is by no means a powerhouse with Mac Jones at quarterback, but the rest of the starters will be in uniform and I don’t think this team is more than 4.5 points worse than average (27th).
• With the Jaguars power rating set there, you’d have to think the Lions are 1.5 points better than every team in the NFL to get to this point spread. Detroit would not be favored on a neutral field against the Ravens, so being 1.5 points better than every other team is a stretch.
• Jared Goff had gone five straight games without an interception before last Monday night when he threw five against the Texans. Goff’s 4.4% Turnover-Worthy Play rate (26th) caught up to him, and I believe he will throw another interception on Sunday.
• The Lions yards per attempt against a standard pass rush is 83% of the yards per attempt versus the blitz (31st) and Jacksonville’s defense has a league-high 86% standard pass rush rate.
• Detroit RT Taylor Decker ranks 5th-worst in pass blocking efficiency and he will struggle across from edge rusher Josh Hines-Allen, who has 43 pressures (5th).
• The Lions will likely be without TE Sam LaPorta, who is worth a half point to Detroit’s offense by our numbers.
• Meanwhile, the Jaguars offensive line should be able to protect in this game with LG Ezra Cleveland back in the lineup. Cleveland ranks 13th in pass blocking efficiency.
• Lions’ interior defender Alim McNeill has 31 pressures (4th) but he will be shut down by RG Brandon Scherff, who ranks 5th in pass blocking efficiency.
• Our model suggests that Detroit should only be a 10.5-point favorite in this game, with a predicted total of 44.3.

Jacksonville is a Strong Opinion at +13 or more.