Game Analysis

Note: The Over has moved out of range but would be a Strong Opinion if it drops to 46.5 points (Best Bet at 46 or less).

1-Star Best Bet – *Over (45.5) – DENVER (-3) vs Jacksonville

• Jaguars’ head coach Liam Coen has unleashed the offense since the bye week. Trevor Lawrence is averaging 0.18 EPA/play since week 8 bye (4th) and 9.7 air yards per attempt compared to averaging only 8.3 air yards per attempt during the first 7 games.
• Lawrence has a favorable matchup versus a Broncos defense with a 39% blitz rate (6th-highest) and the 6th-highest man-coverage rate. Jacksonville’s offense leads the NFL averaging 25% more yards per attempt versus man compared to zone-coverage, and Lawrence ranks 9th relatively against the blitz compared to standard dropbacks.
• Bo Nix is averaging 0.26 EPA/play over his last four games (5th).
• Nix will have time in the pocket to look downfield for WR Courtland Sutton, who has 12 receptions with at least 20 air yards (3rd). Denver LT Garett Bolles leads the NFL in pass blocking efficiency, and he contain Jaguars’ edge defender Josh Hines-Allen, who has 76 pressures (4th).
• Our model favors the Broncos by 0.9 points, with a predicted total of 49.5 points, but the Jaguars apply to a very negative 19-71-4 ATS road letdown situation based on their recent good play. I used Denver in my spread pool, but the play is on the Over.

1-Star Best Bet Over 46 points or more (Strong Opinion Over 46.5).