Game Analysis

CLEVELAND (-2.5) vs Jacksonville

· This is a challenging rebound spot for the Jaguars after getting upset last Monday night and now traveling to face the league’s 3rd-rated defense by our metrics.

· Trevor Lawrence will play through an ankle injury which could affect his mobility and he is likely to see plenty of collapsing pockets as the Browns have a 9.5% sack rate (3rd).

· Jacksonville’s offensive line ranks 2nd in pass blocking efficiency but LT Walker Little suffered a hamstring injury against the Bengals, and they also don’t have starting LT Cam Robinson. The Jaguars offensive line surrendered 17 pressures versus Cincinnati after allowing only 7.5 pressures per game in the first 12 weeks.

· Jacksonville 3rd-string left tackle Blake Hance will struggle mightily across from edge rusher Myles Garrett, who has 13.0 sacks (5th).

· Jaguars WR Christian Kirk is one of 19 qualifying wide receivers that average 2 yards per route run and he is Jacksonville’s top option versus man coverage. Kirk is worth 0.6 points according to our numbers in a neutral situation and it could be more in this matchup as Cleveland’s defense has the 2nd-highest man coverage rate in the NFL.

· Browns starting CB Denzel Ward will be back on the field this Sunday after missing two games and he will limit WR Calvin Ridley, who is averaging 0.34 EPA/target (17th).

· Jacksonville TE Evan Engram is averaging 1.49 yards per route run (8th) but he will be shut down as Cleveland’s defense is allowing a league-low 35% success rate to tight ends.

· The Browns averaged 4.6 yards per carry on first down last season, but the ground game has been much worse without All-Pro RB Nick Chubb in 2023. Cleveland’s offense averages only 3.6 yards per rush on first down this year (30th).

· Joe Flacco will need to win this game with his arm, and he is fortunate for the clearing of concussion protocol by Browns WR Amari Cooper, who is averaging 1.94 yards per route run (20th).

· However, Flacco will not have much time in the pocket as backup LT Geron Christian will go against edge defender Josh Allen, who ranks 2nd in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Cleveland’s offense is targeting tight ends on 26.9% of passes (6th-most) but David Njoku will be contained as Jacksonville’s defense is conceding only a 48% success rate to tight ends (7th).

· Our model favors the Browns by 2.5 with a predicted total of 34.4 points. I used Cleveland -2.5 in my spread pool.