Game Analysis
Lean – CLEVELAND (+7.5) over Jacksonville
At first glance, this game would seem to provide a great matchup for Cleveland’s offense with the Browns rushing attack averaging 4.4 yards per rush (9th) facing a Jacksonville rush defense ranked 27th in my metrics. However, since acquiring Pro-Bowl defensive lineman Marcell Dareus, the Jaguars surrender just 2.5 ypr. That’s based on a pretty small sample size but it’s likely that the Jags will be better defending the run than they were in the first half of the season.
Cleveland’s 31st-ranked pass offense will likely be completely stifled by a Jacksonville defense allowing a league best 4.6 yards per pass play. Cornerbacks AJ Bouye and Jalen Ramsey both rank top-5 in passer rating when in coverage and the Browns’ quarterbacks aren’t good enough to beat tight coverage.
I expect the Jaguars to have trouble moving the football as well in this matchup. Jacksonville is the only team in the league with more rushing plays than passes and they will line up against a Browns defense allowing only 3.1 ypr, which is best in the NFL. The Jaguars may need to rely on Blake Bortles to make a few plays in this game, which is always a risky proposition. My ratings favor Jacksonville by only 6 ½ points in this game and the Browns apply to a very good 65-12 ATS contrary situation that is actually 1-0 ATS when it’s been on Cleveland this season (their 9-12 overtime loss as a 5 ½ point home dog to Minnesota a few weeks ago). I’ll lean with Cleveland at +7 or more.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.6
35.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.4%
37.1%
-
Sack Rate
4.7%
10.4%
-
Int Rate
2.5%
3.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.7%
22.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
31.9%
41.4%
-
NYPP
6.3
4.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
34.8
26.9
-
RB YPR
4.5
4.3
-
Stuff Rate
19.7%
23.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
43.7%
49.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
48.4%
36.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.8
4.4
Game
-
All Snaps
68.3
62.8
-
Early Down Succ
45.8%
47.5%
-
Succ Rate
43.7%
42.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.4%
41.6%
-
Yards Per Play
5.5
4.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
1.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.1
27.8
-
Run Ratio
51.7%
43.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.9
26.8
-
Game Control
5.6
-5.6
Pass
-
Pass Plays
41.6
34.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
35.0%
46.9%
-
Sack Rate
7.4%
6.9%
-
Int Rate
5.1%
2.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
23.8%
12.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
42.0%
41.6%
-
NYPP
5.0
6.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.6
29.7
-
RB YPR
4.1
2.8
-
Stuff Rate
20.8%
30.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
47.0%
31.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
40.7%
41.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
3.0
Game
-
All Snaps
66.1
63.7
-
Early Down Succ
41.1%
41.9%
-
Succ Rate
39.2%
39.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.7%
42.1%
-
Yards Per Play
4.7
5.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.5
30.0
-
Run Ratio
36.9%
46.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.7
29.1
-
Game Control
-7.1
7.1
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@HOU |
30 – 7 W |
11.9 |
52.4% /
34.8% |
0.0% /
21.7% |
0.0% /
2.8% |
6.0 /
2.4 |
41.5% /
60.9% |
17.1% /
17.4% |
3.8 /
4.0 |
62 /
69 |
53.3% /
44.6% |
45.2% /
43.5% |
32.6% /
12.8% |
4.5 /
2.9 |
0.0% /
4.3% |
66.1% /
33.3% |
38.2 /
26.5 |
| 2 |
TEN |
16 – 37 L |
-7.9 |
41.7% /
42.9% |
5.6% /
3.6% |
5.9% /
3.7% |
5.9 /
7.5 |
64.0% /
68.4% |
12.0% /
10.5% |
4.0 /
4.8 |
61 /
66 |
52.1% /
64.0% |
50.8% /
57.6% |
23.5% /
41.6% |
5.1 /
5.9 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
41.0% /
57.6% |
23.4 /
39.9 |
| 3 |
BAL |
44 – 7 W |
23.9 |
54.5% /
24.1% |
0.0% /
6.9% |
0.0% /
7.4% |
7.4 /
1.8 |
31.6% /
56.0% |
10.5% /
20.0% |
4.4 /
5.4 |
71 /
54 |
48.1% /
42.9% |
42.3% /
38.9% |
35.8% /
39.2% |
5.8 /
3.4 |
0.0% /
1.9% |
53.5% /
46.3% |
38.5 /
24.1 |
| 4 |
@NYJ |
20 – 23 L |
-2.3 |
30.6% /
44.4% |
2.8% /
13.9% |
2.9% /
3.2% |
3.8 /
6.0 |
57.5% /
31.3% |
20.0% /
43.8% |
4.4 /
8.0 |
76 /
68 |
50.8% /
37.3% |
44.7% /
38.2% |
27.6% /
68.6% |
4.1 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
52.6% /
47.1% |
27.0 /
29.5 |
| 5 |
@PIT |
30 – 9 W |
4.5 |
37.5% /
42.9% |
12.5% /
3.6% |
7.1% /
9.3% |
5.1 /
5.4 |
40.5% /
40.0% |
24.3% /
35.0% |
6.2 /
3.5 |
53 /
76 |
36.6% /
41.0% |
39.6% /
42.1% |
60.1% /
44.5% |
5.9 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
69.8% /
26.3% |
26.4 /
21.8 |
| 6 |
LA |
17 – 27 L |
-5.1 |
37.5% /
37.5% |
12.5% /
12.5% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
5.5 /
4.5 |
42.3% /
64.7% |
30.8% /
20.6% |
6.5 /
4.2 |
66 /
58 |
42.0% /
65.9% |
39.4% /
53.4% |
54.2% /
35.5% |
5.9 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
39.4% /
58.6% |
25.3 /
30.5 |
| 7 |
@IND |
27 – 0 W |
18.7 |
53.6% /
34.0% |
3.6% /
21.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
11.8 /
2.9 |
44.7% /
60.0% |
21.1% /
20.0% |
5.0 /
4.8 |
66 /
67 |
49.0% /
46.9% |
48.5% /
41.8% |
61.8% /
41.4% |
7.9 /
3.5 |
3.0% /
0.0% |
57.6% /
29.9% |
20.1 /
28.0 |
| 9 |
CIN |
23 – 7 W |
7.2 |
55.3% /
30.0% |
0.0% /
10.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.8 /
6.0 |
41.5% /
15.8% |
12.2% /
21.1% |
3.7 /
1.6 |
79 /
39 |
44.1% /
29.6% |
48.1% /
23.1% |
32.8% /
52.7% |
5.2 /
3.8 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
51.9% /
48.7% |
21.1 /
20.2 |
| 10 |
LAC |
20 – 17 W |
-0.3 |
37.0% /
43.2% |
5.6% /
0.0% |
3.9% /
2.7% |
4.9 /
6.4 |
29.6% /
48.4% |
29.6% /
25.8% |
5.0 /
2.8 |
81 /
68 |
36.1% /
54.9% |
34.6% /
45.6% |
34.7% /
38.4% |
4.9 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
33.3% /
45.6% |
30.7 /
21.1 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
PIT |
18 – 21 L |
-5.8 |
43.2% /
45.9% |
18.9% /
2.7% |
3.3% /
2.8% |
4.9 /
6.9 |
36.0% /
16.0% |
16.0% /
16.0% |
2.3 /
1.5 |
62 /
62 |
41.7% /
41.0% |
40.3% /
33.9% |
45.1% /
35.2% |
3.8 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.3% /
40.3% |
28.6 /
20.8 |
| 2 |
@BAL |
10 – 24 L |
-9.4 |
31.1% /
50.0% |
6.7% /
5.6% |
9.5% /
2.9% |
6.5 /
5.6 |
38.1% /
36.4% |
23.8% /
27.3% |
4.4 /
4.2 |
66 /
69 |
36.5% /
47.3% |
33.3% /
43.5% |
67.1% /
39.9% |
5.8 /
4.9 |
1.5% /
1.4% |
31.8% /
47.8% |
22.3 /
33.9 |
| 3 |
@IND |
28 – 31 L |
-9.2 |
35.4% /
33.3% |
2.1% /
11.1% |
6.4% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
9.0 |
57.1% /
27.0% |
19.0% /
37.8% |
5.3 /
2.5 |
69 /
64 |
42.9% /
24.4% |
42.0% /
29.7% |
53.8% /
63.7% |
5.0 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
30.4% /
57.8% |
28.9 /
29.6 |
| 4 |
CIN |
7 – 31 L |
-16.5 |
29.5% /
60.6% |
4.5% /
9.1% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
3.9 /
8.0 |
41.2% /
40.0% |
35.3% /
26.7% |
2.6 /
2.9 |
61 /
63 |
32.6% /
50.0% |
32.8% /
50.8% |
33.0% /
43.4% |
3.5 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
27.9% /
47.6% |
26.4 /
28.3 |
| 5 |
NYJ |
14 – 17 L |
-1.7 |
45.9% /
51.5% |
2.7% /
9.1% |
5.6% /
3.3% |
7.5 /
5.4 |
45.5% /
19.0% |
18.2% /
33.3% |
4.2 /
1.8 |
70 /
54 |
46.3% /
45.9% |
45.7% /
38.9% |
40.1% /
32.1% |
6.0 /
4.0 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
47.1% /
38.9% |
30.1 /
29.0 |
| 6 |
@HOU |
17 – 33 L |
-16.2 |
31.7% /
50.0% |
9.8% /
3.3% |
8.1% /
3.4% |
2.8 /
7.2 |
63.6% /
26.5% |
13.6% /
26.5% |
6.1 /
3.6 |
63 /
64 |
49.0% /
38.8% |
42.9% /
37.5% |
39.7% /
47.5% |
3.9 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.9% /
53.1% |
28.0 /
24.9 |
| 7 |
TEN |
9 – 12 L |
-2.1 |
39.0% /
41.7% |
4.9% /
5.6% |
7.7% /
0.0% |
5.3 /
5.3 |
25.9% /
31.3% |
22.2% /
46.9% |
2.5 /
2.5 |
68 /
68 |
37.3% /
38.0% |
33.8% /
36.8% |
23.9% /
14.5% |
4.2 /
4.0 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
39.7% /
47.1% |
25.1 /
33.6 |
| 8 |
MIN |
16 – 33 L |
-1.9 |
29.7% /
52.3% |
8.1% /
2.3% |
0.0% /
2.3% |
4.4 /
6.5 |
54.5% /
41.2% |
9.1% /
29.4% |
5.2 /
2.6 |
59 /
78 |
42.2% /
50.0% |
39.0% /
47.4% |
41.3% /
28.8% |
4.7 /
4.8 |
3.4% /
0.0% |
37.3% /
43.6% |
31.2 /
32.8 |
| 10 |
@DET |
24 – 38 L |
-0.7 |
29.5% /
36.7% |
9.1% /
13.3% |
2.5% /
3.8% |
4.8 /
8.0 |
60.6% /
42.9% |
30.3% /
28.6% |
6.1 /
5.0 |
77 /
51 |
41.4% /
41.7% |
42.9% /
39.2% |
48.9% /
73.8% |
5.4 /
6.8 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
42.9% /
41.2% |
28.4 /
28.8 |
Jacksonville Jaguars
@ 
Cleveland Browns