Game Analysis

Lean – Over (45.5) – BUFFALO (-5) vs Jacksonville

• The Jaguars set out this offseason to make the offense more vertical and Trevor Lawrence leads the NFL through two weeks with 11 passes having 20+ air yards. Jacksonville deep threat first round WR Brian Thomas leads all rookies with 3 routes reaching 20 mph.
• However, Buffalo’s defense uses Cover 2 on 27% of snaps (2nd-most), which should limit the Jaguars deep passing, and Jacksonville’s offense has struggled closer to the line of scrimmage.
• The Jaguars are averaging only 0.90 rushing yards before contact per carry (28th) and TE Evan Engram is likely out again with a hamstring injury he got while warming up before last game.
• Jacksonville slot WR Christian Kirk has only 29 yards in the first two games, but he averaged 2.18 yards per route run in the slot last season (6th) and will be crucial for Lawrence to target in this game. The Bills are missing starting nickelback Taron Johnson and both starting linebackers Matt Milano and Terrl Bernard.
• Buffalo edge defender Von Miller looks back to his old self after last season was plagued by injuries. Miller ranks 6th in pass rushing efficiency and he will wreak havoc against RT Anton Harrison, who has surrendered 2 sacks (3rd-most).
• I’m calling a breakout game for Bills rookie wide receiver Keon Coleman. Although, it could also be WR Mack Hollins or WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Someone is getting loose in Jacksonville’s secondary.
• Jaguars CB Tyson Campbell was preventing separation on just 64% of his opportunities (6th) but he is out and backup Montaric Brown is getting picked on. Brown saw 12 targets thrown into his coverage last week.
• Josh Allen will have time to throw downfield to Coleman as Buffalo left tackle Dion Dawkins ranks 6th in pass blocking efficiency and he will contain edge defender Josh Hines-Allen, whose 9 pressures ranks 10th.
• Our model favors the Bills by 4.2 points, with a predicted total of 47.5 points. I used Buffalo in my spread pool based on a 76-27-2 ATS situation that is based on their rest advantage (they played last week on Thursday and have had 3 extra days off).