Game Analysis
Lean – Jacksonville (-5/-5.5) over ARIZONA
The Jaguars have the NFL’s best defense in yards per play but are significantly better defending the pass than the run. Jacksonville’s defense is surrendering just 4.5 yards per pass play, almost a yard better than the second-best pass defense, but they are also allowing 4.5 yards per rush, which ranks 27th in the league. However, I do not expect the Cardinals will be able to expose the Jaguars’ weakness. Arizona has averaged 2.6 ypr in 5 games without run blocking specialist D.J. Humphries in the lineup and he will be out the rest of the season. Furthermore, Jacksonville is holding opponents to 2.5 ypr in three games since acquiring Pro-Bowler Marcell Dareus in a trade (while Buffalo’s run defense has declined), so there are now no Jags’ defensive weaknesses for a bad Arizona offense to exploit.
In the Cardinals first game without run stopping safety Tyvon Branch, they allowed Houston to gain 134 yards on the ground and they will be tested again versus a Jacksonville offense with the highest rushing rate in the league. Arizona’s defense ranks 9th against the run in my ratings but it remains to be seen how they will cope will the loss of Branch.
My ratings favor Jacksonville by 7 ½ points in this game and I’ll lean with the Jags based on the line value.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.4
36.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
43.1%
36.6%
-
Sack Rate
4.9%
10.7%
-
Int Rate
2.3%
3.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.0%
21.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
30.6%
42.3%
-
NYPP
6.2
4.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
35.8
26.1
-
RB YPR
4.4
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
21.3%
24.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.4%
48.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
46.5%
35.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.6
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
69.2
62.1
-
Early Down Succ
44.4%
46.7%
-
Succ Rate
42.4%
41.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.7%
41.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.3
4.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
1.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.1
27.5
-
Run Ratio
52.4%
42.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.4
27.2
-
Game Control
5.5
-5.5
Pass
-
Pass Plays
42.0
39.1
-
Succ Pass Plays
43.6%
44.0%
-
Sack Rate
6.5%
5.7%
-
Int Rate
3.1%
2.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.7%
16.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
39.7%
36.6%
-
NYPP
6.5
6.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.1
28.3
-
RB YPR
2.6
3.3
-
Stuff Rate
28.3%
25.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
32.0%
36.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
23.1%
46.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
2.7
3.5
Game
-
All Snaps
66.1
67.4
-
Early Down Succ
41.1%
40.2%
-
Succ Rate
39.2%
40.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
36.7%
39.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.0
5.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
0.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.9
28.2
-
Run Ratio
36.1%
42.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.5
28.2
-
Game Control
-1.9
1.9
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@HOU |
30 – 7 W |
11.9 |
52.4% / 34.8% |
0.0% / 21.7% |
0.0% / 2.8% |
6.0 / 2.4 |
41.5% / 60.9% |
17.1% / 17.4% |
3.8 / 4.0 |
62 / 69 |
53.3% / 44.6% |
45.2% / 43.5% |
32.6% / 12.8% |
4.5 / 2.9 |
0.0% / 4.3% |
66.1% / 33.3% |
38.2 / 26.5 |
2 |
TEN |
16 – 37 L |
-7.9 |
41.7% / 42.9% |
5.6% / 3.6% |
5.9% / 3.7% |
5.9 / 7.5 |
64.0% / 68.4% |
12.0% / 10.5% |
4.0 / 4.8 |
61 / 66 |
52.1% / 64.0% |
50.8% / 57.6% |
23.5% / 41.6% |
5.1 / 5.9 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
41.0% / 57.6% |
23.4 / 39.9 |
3 |
BAL |
44 – 7 W |
23.9 |
54.5% / 24.1% |
0.0% / 6.9% |
0.0% / 7.4% |
7.4 / 1.8 |
31.6% / 56.0% |
10.5% / 20.0% |
4.4 / 5.4 |
71 / 54 |
48.1% / 42.9% |
42.3% / 38.9% |
35.8% / 39.2% |
5.8 / 3.4 |
0.0% / 1.9% |
53.5% / 46.3% |
38.5 / 24.1 |
4 |
@NYJ |
20 – 23 L |
-2.3 |
30.6% / 44.4% |
2.8% / 13.9% |
2.9% / 3.2% |
3.8 / 6.0 |
57.5% / 31.3% |
20.0% / 43.8% |
4.4 / 8.0 |
76 / 68 |
50.8% / 37.3% |
44.7% / 38.2% |
27.6% / 68.6% |
4.1 / 6.9 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
52.6% / 47.1% |
27.0 / 29.5 |
5 |
@PIT |
30 – 9 W |
4.5 |
37.5% / 42.9% |
12.5% / 3.6% |
7.1% / 9.3% |
5.1 / 5.4 |
40.5% / 40.0% |
24.3% / 35.0% |
6.2 / 3.5 |
53 / 76 |
36.6% / 41.0% |
39.6% / 42.1% |
60.1% / 44.5% |
5.9 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
69.8% / 26.3% |
26.4 / 21.8 |
6 |
LA |
17 – 27 L |
-5.1 |
37.5% / 37.5% |
12.5% / 12.5% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
5.5 / 4.5 |
42.3% / 64.7% |
30.8% / 20.6% |
6.5 / 4.2 |
66 / 58 |
42.0% / 65.9% |
39.4% / 53.4% |
54.2% / 35.5% |
5.9 / 4.3 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
39.4% / 58.6% |
25.3 / 30.5 |
7 |
@IND |
27 – 0 W |
18.7 |
53.6% / 34.0% |
3.6% / 21.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
11.8 / 2.9 |
44.7% / 60.0% |
21.1% / 20.0% |
5.0 / 4.8 |
66 / 67 |
49.0% / 46.9% |
48.5% / 41.8% |
61.8% / 41.4% |
7.9 / 3.5 |
3.0% / 0.0% |
57.6% / 29.9% |
20.1 / 28.0 |
9 |
CIN |
23 – 7 W |
7.2 |
55.3% / 30.0% |
0.0% / 10.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.8 / 6.0 |
41.5% / 15.8% |
12.2% / 21.1% |
3.7 / 1.6 |
79 / 39 |
44.1% / 29.6% |
48.1% / 23.1% |
32.8% / 52.7% |
5.2 / 3.8 |
1.3% / 0.0% |
51.9% / 48.7% |
21.1 / 20.2 |
10 |
LAC |
20 – 17 W |
-0.3 |
37.0% / 43.2% |
5.6% / 0.0% |
3.9% / 2.7% |
4.9 / 6.4 |
29.6% / 48.4% |
29.6% / 25.8% |
5.0 / 2.8 |
81 / 68 |
36.1% / 54.9% |
34.6% / 45.6% |
34.7% / 38.4% |
4.9 / 4.8 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
33.3% / 45.6% |
30.7 / 21.1 |
11 |
@CLE |
19 – 7 W |
3.9 |
31.3% / 32.4% |
6.3% / 13.5% |
0.0% / 6.3% |
4.5 / 3.6 |
31.1% / 36.8% |
35.6% / 26.3% |
3.1 / 2.7 |
77 / 56 |
32.1% / 40.0% |
31.2% / 33.9% |
24.2% / 42.2% |
3.7 / 3.3 |
1.3% / 5.4% |
58.4% / 33.9% |
33.0 / 30.4 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@DET |
23 – 35 L |
2.7 |
42.9% / 47.6% |
2.0% / 2.4% |
6.3% / 2.4% |
5.4 / 6.8 |
38.9% / 35.7% |
16.7% / 21.4% |
2.5 / 3.0 |
67 / 70 |
41.2% / 42.3% |
41.8% / 42.9% |
29.4% / 27.4% |
4.6 / 5.3 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
26.9% / 40.0% |
28.5 / 36.6 |
2 |
@IND |
16 – 13 W |
-6.3 |
40.0% / 41.5% |
10.0% / 9.8% |
2.8% / 2.7% |
7.7 / 4.6 |
34.6% / 34.5% |
11.5% / 24.1% |
3.2 / 2.6 |
66 / 70 |
39.6% / 36.5% |
37.9% / 38.6% |
63.6% / 16.5% |
5.9 / 3.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
39.4% / 41.4% |
29.6 / 24.5 |
3 |
DAL |
17 – 28 L |
0.5 |
38.9% / 42.1% |
11.1% / 5.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.2 / 9.2 |
33.3% / 33.3% |
33.3% / 33.3% |
2.3 / 3.7 |
75 / 46 |
35.7% / 42.9% |
37.3% / 37.0% |
51.5% / 62.8% |
4.4 / 6.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
28.0% / 58.7% |
21.6 / 29.4 |
4 |
SF |
18 – 15 W |
-1.4 |
49.1% / 30.8% |
10.5% / 5.8% |
2.0% / 2.0% |
5.6 / 4.0 |
39.1% / 37.0% |
30.4% / 25.9% |
2.3 / 3.5 |
80 / 79 |
51.6% / 33.9% |
46.3% / 32.9% |
17.9% / 27.9% |
4.6 / 3.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
28.8% / 34.2% |
27.9 / 22.3 |
5 |
@PHI |
7 – 34 L |
-16.7 |
41.3% / 48.4% |
4.3% / 3.2% |
0.0% / 3.3% |
6.0 / 9.6 |
21.4% / 28.6% |
35.7% / 22.9% |
2.2 / 3.5 |
60 / 66 |
37.2% / 33.3% |
36.7% / 37.9% |
20.2% / 52.3% |
5.1 / 6.4 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
23.3% / 53.0% |
19.3 / 34.1 |
6 |
TB |
38 – 33 W |
18.1 |
62.5% / 53.5% |
8.3% / 2.3% |
4.5% / 4.8% |
11.3 / 8.0 |
38.5% / 23.8% |
20.5% / 38.1% |
4.2 / 3.2 |
63 / 64 |
56.5% / 40.4% |
47.6% / 43.8% |
53.0% / 51.9% |
6.9 / 6.5 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
61.9% / 32.8% |
33.4 / 28.3 |
7 |
@LA |
0 – 33 L |
-16.0 |
28.6% / 42.1% |
8.6% / 2.6% |
6.3% / 2.7% |
4.8 / 6.0 |
25.0% / 48.8% |
41.7% / 14.6% |
2.1 / 4.8 |
47 / 79 |
27.3% / 39.7% |
27.7% / 45.6% |
35.8% / 29.1% |
4.1 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
25.5% / 51.9% |
26.0 / 33.8 |
9 |
@SF |
20 – 10 W |
7.3 |
40.0% / 32.1% |
0.0% / 8.9% |
3.3% / 2.0% |
6.7 / 4.8 |
34.8% / 58.8% |
13.0% / 17.6% |
3.7 / 3.7 |
76 / 73 |
38.9% / 40.7% |
36.8% / 38.4% |
45.8% / 30.7% |
4.9 / 4.5 |
1.3% / 1.4% |
60.5% / 23.3% |
34.4 / 23.5 |
10 |
SEA |
16 – 22 L |
-5.5 |
42.9% / 47.2% |
4.1% / 13.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.2 / 5.9 |
20.8% / 20.8% |
41.7% / 33.3% |
1.4 / 3.2 |
73 / 60 |
34.5% / 42.2% |
35.6% / 36.7% |
6.9% / 51.0% |
4.0 / 4.8 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
32.9% / 40.0% |
27.7 / 27.1 |
11 |
@HOU |
21 – 31 L |
-1.8 |
50.0% / 54.5% |
5.6% / 3.0% |
5.9% / 3.1% |
6.8 / 6.8 |
33.3% / 47.1% |
38.9% / 20.6% |
2.7 / 3.9 |
54 / 67 |
48.8% / 50.0% |
44.4% / 50.7% |
42.5% / 49.6% |
5.4 / 5.3 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
33.3% / 50.7% |
36.3 / 22.7 |