Jacksonville Jaguars @

Arizona Cardinals

Sun, Nov 26
1:25 PM Pacific
Rotation: 269
Odds: Arizona Cardinals +5, Total: 38

Game Analysis

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Lean – Jacksonville (-5/-5.5) over ARIZONA

The Jaguars have the NFL’s best defense in yards per play but are significantly better defending the pass than the run. Jacksonville’s defense is surrendering just 4.5 yards per pass play, almost a yard better than the second-best pass defense, but they are also allowing 4.5 yards per rush, which ranks 27th in the league. However, I do not expect the Cardinals will be able to expose the Jaguars’ weakness. Arizona has averaged 2.6 ypr in 5 games without run blocking specialist D.J. Humphries in the lineup and he will be out the rest of the season. Furthermore, Jacksonville is holding opponents to 2.5 ypr in three games since acquiring Pro-Bowler Marcell Dareus in a trade (while Buffalo’s run defense has declined), so there are now no Jags’ defensive weaknesses for a bad Arizona offense to exploit.

In the Cardinals first game without run stopping safety Tyvon Branch, they allowed Houston to gain 134 yards on the ground and they will be tested again versus a Jacksonville offense with the highest rushing rate in the league. Arizona’s defense ranks 9th against the run in my ratings but it remains to be seen how they will cope will the loss of Branch.

My ratings favor Jacksonville by 7 ½ points in this game and I’ll lean with the Jags based on the line value.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Jaguars
  • Cardinals
JAC
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 33.4 36.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 43.1% 36.6%
  • Sack Rate 4.9% 10.7%
  • Int Rate 2.3% 3.5%
  • Deep Pass Rate 17.0% 21.9%
  • Big Pass Yards 30.6% 42.3%
  • NYPP 6.2 4.6



Rush


  • Rush Plays 35.8 26.1
  • RB YPR 4.4 4.0
  • Stuff Rate 21.3% 24.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 42.4% 48.2%
  • Big Rush Yards 46.5% 35.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.6 4.2




Game

  • All Snaps 69.2 62.1
  • Early Down Succ 44.4% 46.7%
  • Succ Rate 42.4% 41.8%
  • Big Yards Rate 38.7% 41.7%
  • Yards Per Play 5.3 4.4
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 1.6%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.1 27.5
  • Run Ratio 52.4% 42.7%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.4 27.2
  • Game Control 5.5 -5.5
 
  • Points 24.6 14.1
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