Game Analysis

Indianapolis (-3.5) vs Washington

The Colts’ offense struggled last week without big play WR Alec Pierce, who has led the NFL in each of the past two seasons in yards per reception while averaging an elite 11.9 yards per target (10.3 YPT on 7 targets this season before injury). Newly signed WR Darius Slayton did not play last week but he’s expected to play in this game.

Slayton is a good pickup, as he’s averaged 8.5 yards per target in his 7 seasons (mostly playing with Colts’ QB Daniel Jones), including 8.5 YPT last season. I only adjusted 1.1 points for Pierce being out to be conservative because Jones has played at a decent level in the 4.5 games that he’s been without Pierce and because he’s had better than average success throwing to Slayton.

Washington’s defense ranks near 5the bottom of the league in EPA per play allowed (#26) and success rate (#27) and I expect the Colts to move the ball at a pretty good rate.

The Commanders should also have success moving the ball, regardless of which quarterback plays. Jayden Daniels may play with his injured non-throwing shoulder but Marcus Mariota has been better than Daniels in EPA per play (which includes runs/scrambles) and success rate since the beginning of last season on a very similar number of plays. The Colts’ defense has been even worse than Washington’s defense in EPA per play (#31) and success rate (#29).

Washington’s 33-31 win last week over Seattle was deceiving given that they were outgained 258 yards at 4.0 yards per play to 437 yards at 6.8 yppl (they were +3 in turnovers, which is lucky) but I do think the Commanders are a bit underrated and I think the line should be Colts by 2 points (49.0 total points). However, Washington applies to a very negative 37-102-3 ATS letdown situation and favorites tend to cover the spread in these international games.

I’ll pass.