Indianapolis Colts @

Tennessee Titans

Sun, Sep 15
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 261
Odds: Tennessee Titans -3, Total: 44

Game Analysis

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TENNESSEE (-3) vs Indianapolis

The Colts forced overtime against the Chargers last week despite Adam Vinatieri missing two field goals and an extra point. Marlon Mack gained 7.0 yards per rush with 11 runs for a first down or touchdown, but his production is likely to drop this week facing the Titans’ solid run defense. Indy’s quarterback Jacoby Brissett was solid, averaging 6.0 yards per pass play against a good defense, but Tennessee’s defense is a worse matchup for him.

Frank Reich loves to get the tight ends involved with his play calling but the Titans allowed just 6.2 yards per target to opposing tight ends in 2018, the 4th-lowest mark in the league, due to their excellent safeties Kenny Vaccaro and Kevin Byard. Tennessee’s new signing Cameron Wake had 3 sacks in his debut but I expect him and Jurrell Casey to be limited by Colts solid offensive line. The Colts will need to rely on a monster outing from big play WR TY Hilton for success on Sunday.

The Indianapolis defense surrendered 6.0 yards per rush in week 1 and the Titans will look to establish their ground game in this matchup. Marcus Mariota was inaccurate at times in Cleveland, which spells trouble against the Colts zone defense, and I think he will probably throw at least one interception – especially considering he is likely to be under pressure. Left tackle Dennis Kelly, who is filling in for Taylor Lewan, will face Justin Houston, who opened this campaign with 6 pressures last week after finishing 5th in pass rush efficiency last season.

The Colts owned the Titans with Andrew Luck behind center, as the retired quarterback never lost to his division rival in 11 games, but it’s a new era for Indianapolis. Our model favors Tennessee by 3.4 points with a predicted total of 42.9 points. I’ll pass.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Colts
  • Titans


  • Pass Plays 30.0 35.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 45.0% 45.1%
  • Sack Rate 8.3% 11.5%
  • Int Rate 1.8% 1.5%
  • Deep Pass Rate 13.1% 12.2%
  • Big Pass Yards 13.0% 38.4%
  • NYPP 4.9 5.9


  • Rush Plays 33.5 22.5
  • RB YPR 5.8 5.4
  • Stuff Rate 22.3% 22.3%
  • Succ Rush Plays 56.9% 53.6%
  • Big Rush Yards 48.1% 59.2%
  • Yards Per Rush 5.5 5.5


  • All Snaps 63.5 57.5
  • Early Down Succ 51.0% 52.2%
  • Succ Rate 51.3% 48.5%
  • Big Yards Rate 32.9% 48.2%
  • Yards Per Play 5.2 5.8
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 0.8%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 30.3 31.8
  • Run Ratio 52.8% 39.2%
  • Starting Field Pos 26.5 30.8
  • Game Control -2.4 2.4
  • Points 21.5 23.5
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