Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *New England (+2) over Indianapolis

· Bill Belichick will dial up extra pass rushers from the second level as Gardner Minshew is averaging -0.27 EPA/play versus the blitz compared to gaining 0.13 EPA/play against a standard pass rush.

· The Colts yards per attempt against the blitz is a league-low 69% of their yards per attempt when defenses do not send more than four pass rushers.

· Minshew has the highest PFF turnover-worthy play rate in the NFL at 6.3% and Belichick’s opportunistic defense will likely get at least one interception on Sunday.

· The Colts have the league’s 6th-highest run rate adjusted for the situation, but they won’t be able to move the ball on the ground as the Patriots are allowing just a 32.8% rush success rate (3rd).

· The Indianapolis defense is surrendering a 42.1% rush success rate (25th) and they rank 27th in EPA/rush allowed since interior defender Grover Stewart was suspended. Stewart’s 10.6% run stop rate ranked 12th through the first 6 weeks. New England’s 107 rushing yards last week was their 2nd-most of the season as they are clearly improving in the trenches.

· The Patriots’ offensive line ranks 5th in pass-blocking efficiency since week 7 when they solved the right tackle issue with Michael Onwenu. Mac Jones will have clean pockets this week against a Colts defense with only a 30.6% pressure rate (27th).

· Jones is averaging 63% more yards per attempt against zone coverage than against man-coverage this season (2nd-largest gap) and he has a favorable matchup as Indianapolis has a league-high 91.6% zone coverage rate.

· The Colts are down to fifth cornerback Darrell Baker after the suspension of Isaiah Rodgers, Dallis Flowers’ Achilles, and JuJu Brents likely out another week due to the quad. Baker is surrendering 1.79 yards per cover snap ranking 73rd out of 79 qualifying cornerbacks and New England will have starting WR DeVante Parker suiting up after he missed the game against the Commanders.

· Our model favors the Patriots by 3.8 points, with a predicted total of 44.2 points, and Bill Belichick’s teams have always been good after consecutive losses, as New England is 15-3 ATS from dog to -7 after back-to-back losses, including 5-1 ATS the last two seasons with Mac Jones at quarterback (also 32-11-1 ATS after consecutive spread losses).

New England is a 1-Star Best Bet at pick or better (you can add another Star if the Teaser involving the Pats moves out of range before you can play it).