Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Under (50.5) – NEW ENGLAND (-10) vs Indianapolis

The Patriots silenced their doubters last week by outgaining the Dolphins by more than 2 yards per play in a 38-7 win. New England’s defense looks drastically different with Trey Flowers, who is by far the Patriots’ best pass rusher. Flowers recorded 22 more pressures than their next best defender in 2017 and he’s tied for the team lead in pressures this season despite playing just 7 snaps in Jacksonville and missing the entire game in Detroit. New England’s defense is allowing just 4.3 yards per play in the 2 games with Flowers compared to 6.5 yards per play in the 2 games without him. The Colts offensive line ranks 25th in pass blocking efficiency while playing without starting left tackle Anthony Castonzo (questionable this week) and I expect Flowers to continue making a significant impact for the Patriots’ defense.

Indianapolis will be without star wide receiver T.Y. Hilton, which is a blow to the Colts’ offense given that Hilton is averaging 0.2 more expected points per target than the other Colts wide receivers since joining the league in 2012. Andrew Luck is targeting tight ends on 27% of his passes (3rd-most) and Eric Ebron will likely be a focal point of the offense without fellow TE Jack Doyle and Hilton unavailable. However, the Patriots have been consistently good at limiting opposing tight ends, allowing just 5.4 yards per target so far this season (3rd-best) after ranking 6^th defending tight ends in 2017. The Colts have averaged only 4.9 yards per play so far this season while the Patriots’ defense has been a bit better than average despite being without Flowers for nearly two full games. Indy’s offense is likely to struggle in this game without their only deep threat (Hilton averages 14.0 yards per catch on a team averaging 9.0 ypc).

Tom Brady and the New England offense have been pretty mediocre so far this season but the Pats will likely expose the Colts 25th-ranked pass defense allowing 70.6% completions as Julian Edelman (suspended the first 4 games) and Josh Gordon integrate into the offense (32 yards on 2 targets in his first game with the team last week). New England’s underwhelming ground game (22nd in our numbers) might perform pretty well versus an Indianapolis defense with a potentially limited Darius Leonard, who was spotted in a walking boot earlier this week. The Colts rookie is leading the NFL in tackles and ranks 9th among linebackers with a 10.7% run stop rate.

Teams playing on Thursday coming off an overtime game are just 6-25 ATS and the Colts really don’t have any matchups going their way in this game. However, 10 points gives Andrew Luck plenty of space for a garbage time cover and our model leans a bit with Indianapolis. I’ll pass on the side but our model does see some value in the Under.

Team Stats
Game Log

Colts
Patriots

IND

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 49.0 41.5
Succ Pass Plays 47.0% 53.0%
Sack Rate 4.4% 10.0%
Int Rate 2.1% 2.2%
Deep Pass Rate 12.3% 15.1%
Big Pass Yards 24.5% 30.9%
NYPP 5.2 6.5

Rush

Rush Plays 20.5 28.0
RB YPR 3.0 3.8
Stuff Rate 25.1% 29.5%
Succ Rush Plays 43.5% 52.2%
Big Rush Yards 28.1% 45.0%
Yards Per Rush 3.6 3.9

Game

All Snaps 69.5 69.5
Early Down Succ 45.9% 54.8%
Succ Rate 46.0% 52.9%
Big Yards Rate 27.2% 34.5%
Yards Per Play 4.7 5.5
Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 1.2%
Time Per Play (sec) 23.5 30.6
Run Ratio 30.2% 40.0%
Starting Field Pos 29.6 27.6
Game Control 1.0 -1.0

Points 23.5 25.0

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 35.3 36.3
Succ Pass Plays 45.8% 45.5%
Sack Rate 4.4% 4.6%
Int Rate 3.0% 3.0%
Deep Pass Rate 20.0% 19.6%
Big Pass Yards 27.8% 26.7%
NYPP 6.1 6.0

Rush

Rush Plays 29.5 27.8
RB YPR 4.0 3.9
Stuff Rate 15.3% 25.5%
Succ Rush Plays 41.9% 34.6%
Big Rush Yards 46.0% 45.1%
Yards Per Rush 4.0 4.2

Game

All Snaps 64.8 64.0
Early Down Succ 46.6% 41.3%
Succ Rate 43.8% 41.4%
Big Yards Rate 35.2% 34.5%
Yards Per Play 5.1 5.3
Fumble Lost Rate 1.1% 1.3%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.2 29.0
Run Ratio 44.7% 43.0%
Starting Field Pos 28.5 30.2
Game Control 2.2 -2.2

Points 23.8 21.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	CIN	23 – 34 L	3.1	56.4% / 60.0%	3.6% / 6.7%	1.9% / 3.6%	5.5 / 7.6	54.5% / 65.0%	22.7% / 20.0%	3.4 / 5.1	77 / 50	53.3% / 64.3%	55.8% / 62.0%	10.0% / 38.8%	4.9 / 6.6	1.3% / 2.0%	28.6% / 40.0%	33.4 / 26.2
2	@WAS	21 – 9 W	8.3	43.8% / 48.9%	3.1% / 6.4%	6.5% / 0.0%	5.5 / 5.7	40.0% / 40.9%	13.3% / 40.9%	3.5 / 3.0	62 / 69	40.5% / 50.0%	41.9% / 46.4%	25.4% / 28.1%	4.6 / 4.8	0.0% / 1.4%	48.4% / 31.9%	24.7 / 29.3
3	@PHI	16 – 20 L	-0.6	39.5% / 47.6%	4.7% / 11.9%	0.0% / 2.7%	3.3 / 5.4	38.5% / 60.0%	23.1% / 28.6%	5.2 / 4.3	56 / 77	45.2% / 55.6%	39.3% / 53.2%	46.9% / 34.0%	3.7 / 4.9	0.0% / 1.3%	23.2% / 45.5%	36.1 / 21.6
4	HOU	34 – 37 L	-6.7	48.5% / 55.3%	6.1% / 14.9%	0.0% / 2.5%	6.6 / 7.4	41.2% / 42.9%	41.2% / 28.6%	2.4 / 3.4	83 / 82	44.6% / 49.2%	47.0% / 50.0%	26.6% / 37.1%	5.8 / 5.7	2.4% / 0.0%	20.5% / 42.7%	24.1 / 33.4

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	HOU	27 – 20 W	10.6	48.8% / 29.7%	4.9% / 8.1%	2.6% / 2.9%	6.5 / 4.3	38.7% / 45.7%	9.7% / 25.7%	3.9 / 4.8	72 / 72	47.4% / 43.1%	44.4% / 37.5%	38.0% / 37.4%	5.4 / 4.5	2.8% / 1.4%	43.1% / 48.6%	25.4 / 35.4
2	@JAC	20 – 31 L	-13.1	48.6% / 57.8%	5.4% / 0.0%	0.0% / 2.2%	5.9 / 8.4	36.0% / 36.0%	12.0% / 16.0%	3.3 / 4.2	62 / 70	47.9% / 46.3%	43.5% / 50.0%	38.3% / 42.7%	4.9 / 6.9	1.6% / 1.4%	40.3% / 35.7%	30.1 / 25.7
3	@DET	10 – 26 L	-8.1	42.9% / 61.1%	7.1% / 2.8%	3.8% / 2.9%	4.3 / 7.1	57.9% / 45.5%	21.1% / 21.2%	4.7 / 4.8	47 / 69	56.8% / 54.5%	48.9% / 53.6%	19.1% / 36.7%	4.4 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	40.4% / 47.8%	26.4 / 30.2
4	MIA	38 – 7 W	19.6	42.9% / 33.3%	0.0% / 7.4%	5.7% / 4.0%	7.8 / 4.3	34.9% / 11.1%	18.6% / 38.9%	4.1 / 3.1	78 / 45	34.5% / 21.2%	38.5% / 24.4%	45.1% / 20.9%	5.8 / 3.8	0.0% / 2.2%	55.1% / 40.0%	32.0 / 29.5

Indianapolis Colts @

New England Patriots

Thu, Oct 4

5:20 PM Pacific

Game Analysis