Indianapolis Colts
@ 
Los Angeles Rams
Game Analysis
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L.A. RAMS (-3 ½) over Indianapolis
The Colts opened as 3-point favorites before it was announced Andrew Luck would miss week 1. Now the spread has moved 6 points and Rams are favored by 3 ½ points, which is a line move that my numbers agree with. Scott Tolzien has a rating of -0.10 EPA per pass play in his career thus far compared to Andrew Luck’s +0.08 EPA/pass play. This equates to about 7 points per game but most of Tolzien’s playing time was in 2013, just his 3rd year in the league. After factoring in some likely improvement in Tolzien’s 7th year, a 6 point move seems about right.
Wade Phillips is the new Rams defensive coordinator. He has taken over as the new defensive coordinator for 4 teams since 2000. His defenses in those years improved on average 0.145 EPA/play – that equates to about 9 points per game. If Aaron Donald reports, the Rams defense should improve quite a bit. If he does not report, I still expect a slight improvement. I’d lean with the Rams at -3 or less.
- Team Stats
- Game Log
- Colts
- Rams
IND
Offense
Defense
Pass
- Pass Plays 39.1 38.3
- Succ Pass Plays 49.6% 49.7%
- Sack Rate 6.7% 5.2%
- Int Rate 2.6% 1.4%
- Deep Pass Rate 20.6% 17.7%
- Big Pass Yards 43.6% 37.6%
- NYPP 6.9 6.9
Rush
- Rush Plays 26.7 26.3
- RB YPR 3.5 4.4
- Stuff Rate 15.7% 17.5%
- Succ Rush Plays 47.0% 50.1%
- Big Rush Yards 33.1% 38.3%
- Yards Per Rush 3.9 4.5
Game
- All Snaps 65.8 64.5
- Early Down Succ 50.4% 53.7%
- Succ Rate 47.5% 50.3%
- Big Yards Rate 40.9% 39.1%
- Yards Per Play 5.6 6.0
- Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.9%
- Time Per Play (sec) 28.1 27.5
- Run Ratio 40.5% 40.3%
- Starting Field Pos 27.9 26.5
- Game Control 0.9 -0.9
- Points 25.7 24.5
LOS
Offense
Defense
Pass
- Pass Plays 36.5 38.3
- Succ Pass Plays 36.2% 45.8%
- Sack Rate 8.5% 5.2%
- Int Rate 3.7% 1.6%
- Deep Pass Rate 14.0% 11.7%
- Big Pass Yards 45.3% 32.3%
- NYPP 5.1 6.1
Rush
- Rush Plays 24.1 27.6
- RB YPR 3.2 3.7
- Stuff Rate 25.1% 30.5%
- Succ Rush Plays 39.6% 38.3%
- Big Rush Yards 30.3% 48.1%
- Yards Per Rush 3.2 3.8
Game
- All Snaps 60.6 65.8
- Early Down Succ 40.0% 44.8%
- Succ Rate 37.4% 42.4%
- Big Yards Rate 41.0% 39.0%
- Yards Per Play 4.3 5.1
- Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 0.8%
- Time Per Play (sec) 29.2 28.1
- Run Ratio 39.7% 42.1%
- Starting Field Pos 26.9 27.3
- Game Control -4.8 4.8
- Points 14.0 24.6
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log | PASS | RUSH | GAMES | |||||||||||||||
| Wk | Opp | Score | Game Control | Succ Pass Plays | Sack Rate | Int Rate | NYPP | Succ Rush Plays | Stuff Rate | Yds per Rush | All Snaps | Early Down Succ | Succ Rate | Big Yards Rate | Yds per Play | Fum Lost Rate | Run Ratio | Starting Field Pos |
| 1 | DET | 35 – 39 L | -6.8 | 46.9% / 62.5% |
4.1% / 2.5% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.5 / 8.3 |
73.7% / 56.0% |
10.5% / 16.0% |
4.3 / 4.7 |
68 / 65 |
53.8% / 63.0% |
54.4% / 60.0% |
35.3% / 30.5% |
6.6 / 6.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
27.9% / 38.5% |
22.8 / 23.3 |
| 2 | @DEN | 20 – 34 L | -4.5 | 37.8% / 58.8% |
11.1% / 2.9% |
2.5% / 3.0% |
3.8 / 7.8 |
50.0% / 54.8% |
4.5% / 22.6% |
3.8 / 4.3 |
67 / 65 |
42.0% / 59.3% |
41.8% / 56.9% |
28.7% / 30.3% |
3.8 / 6.2 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
32.8% / 47.7% |
26.7 / 24.8 |
| 3 | SD | 26 – 22 W | 1.8 | 53.8% / 56.1% |
5.1% / 4.9% |
2.7% / 0.0% |
8.1 / 7.8 |
38.5% / 35.3% |
34.6% / 17.6% |
3.6 / 2.2 |
65 / 58 |
50.9% / 53.2% |
47.7% / 50.0% |
36.8% / 40.2% |
6.3 / 6.1 |
1.5% / 5.2% |
40.0% / 29.3% |
28.1 / 28.6 |
| 4 | @JAC | 27 – 30 L | -7.8 | 34.0% / 36.1% |
12.8% / 8.3% |
2.4% / 0.0% |
4.0 / 5.4 |
64.0% / 55.2% |
12.0% / 20.7% |
3.8 / 4.7 |
72 / 65 |
42.6% / 47.2% |
44.4% / 44.6% |
36.6% / 28.1% |
3.9 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
34.7% / 44.6% |
25.0 / 29.7 |
| 5 | CHI | 29 – 23 W | 2.7 | 52.3% / 53.5% |
11.4% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.8 / 9.2 |
34.8% / 40.0% |
13.0% / 20.0% |
4.3 / 6.3 |
67 / 63 |
54.0% / 56.9% |
46.3% / 49.2% |
61.3% / 38.6% |
5.9 / 8.3 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
34.3% / 31.7% |
30.9 / 21.5 |
| 6 | @HOU | 23 – 26 L | 8.0 | 51.4% / 50.0% |
8.6% / 2.5% |
3.1% / 2.6% |
6.6 / 6.4 |
46.9% / 48.3% |
18.8% / 27.6% |
5.0 / 5.5 |
67 / 69 |
53.8% / 51.8% |
49.3% / 49.3% |
49.5% / 49.2% |
5.9 / 6.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
47.8% / 42.0% |
32.5 / 22.4 |
| 7 | @TEN | 34 – 26 W | 3.1 | 53.7% / 48.7% |
4.9% / 7.7% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.3 / 5.3 |
53.8% / 67.9% |
11.5% / 10.7% |
3.2 / 4.4 |
67 / 67 |
60.4% / 55.8% |
53.7% / 56.7% |
50.0% / 32.0% |
6.3 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
38.8% / 41.8% |
27.0 / 23.1 |
| 8 | KC | 14 – 30 L | -8.3 | 36.6% / 45.5% |
14.6% / 6.8% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
4.2 / 7.6 |
50.0% / 35.7% |
18.2% / 21.4% |
4.8 / 3.2 |
63 / 72 |
45.7% / 42.6% |
41.3% / 41.7% |
32.7% / 48.7% |
4.4 / 5.9 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
34.9% / 38.9% |
22.8 / 34.8 |
| 9 | @GB | 31 – 26 W | 9.7 | 50.0% / 50.0% |
5.3% / 6.5% |
5.6% / 2.3% |
7.1 / 6.3 |
35.5% / 50.0% |
16.1% / 10.0% |
2.8 / 5.9 |
69 / 66 |
46.0% / 55.8% |
43.5% / 50.0% |
32.7% / 46.1% |
5.2 / 6.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
44.9% / 30.3% |
24.5 / 30.4 |
| 11 | TEN | 24 – 17 W | 10.8 | 43.3% / 46.5% |
6.7% / 11.6% |
3.6% / 0.0% |
8.4 / 5.9 |
37.5% / 59.3% |
12.5% / 18.5% |
2.5 / 3.6 |
62 / 70 |
45.2% / 56.6% |
40.3% / 51.4% |
58.0% / 35.0% |
5.3 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
51.6% / 38.6% |
27.3 / 22.4 |
| 12 | PIT | 7 – 28 L | -12.2 | 45.0% / 47.6% |
7.5% / 0.0% |
5.4% / 0.0% |
5.5 / 10.5 |
30.4% / 65.5% |
26.1% / 6.9% |
4.0 / 5.1 |
63 / 50 |
34.1% / 56.4% |
39.7% / 58.0% |
37.4% / 61.5% |
4.9 / 7.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
36.5% / 58.0% |
27.1 / 24.6 |
| 13 | @NYJ | 41 – 10 W | 20.5 | 70.0% / 39.5% |
3.3% / 2.6% |
0.0% / 8.1% |
9.4 / 5.6 |
30.2% / 53.3% |
16.3% / 13.3% |
3.3 / 2.5 |
73 / 53 |
50.0% / 50.0% |
46.6% / 43.4% |
44.3% / 31.9% |
5.8 / 4.7 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
58.9% / 28.3% |
43.7 / 18.3 |
| 14 | HOU | 17 – 22 L | -3.5 | 41.3% / 40.0% |
2.2% / 8.0% |
4.4% / 4.3% |
5.8 / 5.2 |
56.3% / 48.8% |
6.3% / 11.6% |
5.3 / 4.3 |
62 / 68 |
48.9% / 52.0% |
45.2% / 45.6% |
32.4% / 31.8% |
5.6 / 4.7 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
25.8% / 63.2% |
24.3 / 36.1 |
| 15 | @MIN | 34 – 6 W | 18.0 | 60.7% / 51.1% |
0.0% / 10.6% |
0.0% / 2.4% |
8.9 / 5.3 |
57.5% / 44.4% |
17.5% / 22.2% |
4.0 / 3.8 |
68 / 56 |
61.1% / 54.3% |
58.8% / 50.0% |
32.1% / 38.3% |
6.0 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 3.6% |
58.8% / 16.1% |
31.0 / 24.7 |
| 16 | @OAK | 25 – 33 L | -9.6 | 65.5% / 55.9% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
6.9% / 0.0% |
9.9 / 7.3 |
52.0% / 37.5% |
20.0% / 20.0% |
4.2 / 5.3 |
54 / 74 |
65.1% / 46.3% |
59.3% / 45.9% |
46.4% / 43.7% |
7.3 / 6.2 |
1.9% / 0.0% |
46.3% / 54.1% |
24.3 / 32.5 |
| 17 | JAC | 24 – 20 W | -6.7 | 51.2% / 53.7% |
9.3% / 4.9% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
6.7 / 7.0 |
40.9% / 50.0% |
13.6% / 20.0% |
4.3 / 6.1 |
65 / 71 |
52.8% / 57.9% |
47.7% / 52.1% |
39.8% / 40.0% |
5.9 / 6.6 |
1.5% / 2.8% |
33.8% / 42.3% |
28.1 / 27.2 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log | PASS | RUSH | GAMES | |||||||||||||||
| Wk | Opp | Score | Game Control | Succ Pass Plays | Sack Rate | Int Rate | NYPP | Succ Rush Plays | Stuff Rate | Yds per Rush | All Snaps | Early Down Succ | Succ Rate | Big Yards Rate | Yds per Play | Fum Lost Rate | Run Ratio | Starting Field Pos |
| 1 | @SF | 0 – 28 L | -12.6 | 27.0% / 45.7% |
5.4% / 0.0% |
5.7% / 0.0% |
3.2 / 4.9 |
37.5% / 37.2% |
20.8% / 32.6% |
2.8 / 3.5 |
61 / 78 |
35.7% / 40.4% |
31.1% / 41.0% |
29.0% / 35.2% |
3.0 / 4.1 |
0.0% / 1.3% |
39.3% / 55.1% |
31.4 / 24.4 |
| 2 | SEA | 9 – 3 W | 2.9 | 39.4% / 37.8% |
9.1% / 5.4% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.6 / 6.5 |
29.6% / 33.3% |
25.9% / 45.8% |
2.4 / 2.8 |
60 / 61 |
40.9% / 37.5% |
35.0% / 36.1% |
41.4% / 44.8% |
4.8 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 3.3% |
45.0% / 39.3% |
23.7 / 17.0 |
| 3 | @TB | 37 – 32 W | 0.7 | 40.7% / 50.0% |
3.7% / 3.3% |
3.8% / 1.7% |
6.8 / 6.5 |
57.6% / 65.2% |
21.2% / 17.4% |
4.2 / 3.7 |
60 / 83 |
51.1% / 55.6% |
50.0% / 54.2% |
43.4% / 30.9% |
5.3 / 5.7 |
1.7% / 1.2% |
55.0% / 27.7% |
28.9 / 28.5 |
| 4 | @ARI | 17 – 13 W | 1.3 | 40.6% / 44.9% |
6.3% / 6.1% |
0.0% / 6.5% |
7.7 / 6.2 |
12.5% / 40.0% |
29.2% / 24.0% |
1.8 / 4.7 |
56 / 74 |
25.6% / 42.6% |
28.6% / 43.2% |
68.9% / 44.5% |
5.2 / 5.7 |
1.8% / 2.7% |
42.9% / 33.8% |
30.3 / 27.2 |
| 5 | BUF | 19 – 30 L | -4.3 | 42.9% / 36.0% |
11.4% / 8.0% |
6.5% / 0.0% |
6.9 / 4.5 |
55.2% / 46.4% |
13.8% / 28.6% |
3.5 / 6.9 |
64 / 53 |
54.0% / 45.0% |
48.4% / 41.5% |
54.8% / 56.5% |
5.4 / 5.8 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
45.3% / 52.8% |
21.2 / 34.0 |
| 6 | @DET | 28 – 31 L | 0.9 | 66.7% / 56.3% |
3.0% / 3.1% |
3.1% / 0.0% |
9.4 / 8.3 |
54.5% / 39.3% |
31.8% / 28.6% |
3.5 / 3.0 |
55 / 60 |
62.2% / 48.8% |
61.8% / 48.3% |
32.3% / 43.4% |
7.0 / 5.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
40.0% / 46.7% |
20.5 / 30.4 |
| 7 | NYG | 10 – 17 L | 1.8 | 33.9% / 40.5% |
5.4% / 0.0% |
7.5% / 0.0% |
4.8 / 5.3 |
55.0% / 36.4% |
10.0% / 18.2% |
3.7 / 1.7 |
76 / 59 |
35.7% / 45.2% |
39.5% / 39.0% |
36.8% / 34.6% |
4.5 / 4.0 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
26.3% / 37.3% |
26.8 / 21.5 |
| 9 | CAR | 10 – 13 L | -6.2 | 44.0% / 43.2% |
8.0% / 13.5% |
2.2% / 0.0% |
5.6 / 5.0 |
35.3% / 23.1% |
17.6% / 34.6% |
3.5 / 2.3 |
67 / 63 |
44.0% / 34.8% |
41.8% / 34.9% |
32.7% / 28.2% |
5.1 / 3.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
25.4% / 41.3% |
23.4 / 28.5 |
| 10 | @NYJ | 9 – 6 W | -0.5 | 36.4% / 39.4% |
9.1% / 3.0% |
0.0% / 3.1% |
4.7 / 4.8 |
40.5% / 48.0% |
27.0% / 32.0% |
3.5 / 5.6 |
70 / 58 |
43.8% / 47.8% |
38.6% / 43.1% |
49.1% / 50.3% |
4.0 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
52.9% / 43.1% |
27.6 / 17.7 |
| 11 | MIA | 10 – 14 L | 6.9 | 28.1% / 44.7% |
3.1% / 10.5% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
3.9 / 3.7 |
27.6% / 36.8% |
34.5% / 42.1% |
3.6 / 5.2 |
61 / 57 |
31.8% / 50.0% |
27.9% / 42.1% |
36.4% / 23.8% |
3.7 / 4.2 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
47.5% / 33.3% |
29.1 / 23.1 |
| 12 | @NO | 21 – 49 L | -9.8 | 38.2% / 65.8% |
8.8% / 5.3% |
3.2% / 0.0% |
5.2 / 9.1 |
35.3% / 50.0% |
23.5% / 28.1% |
4.1 / 6.5 |
51 / 70 |
43.6% / 60.0% |
37.3% / 58.6% |
41.3% / 65.4% |
4.8 / 7.9 |
2.0% / 1.4% |
33.3% / 45.7% |
30.2 / 31.8 |
| 13 | @NE | 10 – 26 L | -15.0 | 16.7% / 45.7% |
11.1% / 0.0% |
6.3% / 0.0% |
3.5 / 5.8 |
28.6% / 41.9% |
28.6% / 25.8% |
2.6 / 4.4 |
50 / 77 |
22.9% / 50.9% |
20.0% / 44.2% |
40.5% / 23.5% |
3.3 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
28.0% / 40.3% |
25.1 / 27.6 |
| 14 | ATL | 14 – 42 L | -23.1 | 38.6% / 43.8% |
6.8% / 6.3% |
4.9% / 0.0% |
4.7 / 6.9 |
65.2% / 36.0% |
13.0% / 36.0% |
4.5 / 2.6 |
67 / 57 |
49.1% / 43.2% |
47.8% / 40.4% |
19.6% / 34.6% |
4.7 / 5.0 |
4.5% / 0.0% |
34.3% / 43.9% |
26.0 / 26.7 |
| 15 | @SEA | 3 – 24 L | -9.4 | 30.8% / 46.4% |
10.3% / 7.1% |
0.0% / 3.8% |
3.5 / 8.1 |
29.4% / 27.3% |
47.1% / 36.4% |
2.8 / 2.3 |
56 / 61 |
35.0% / 35.0% |
30.4% / 36.1% |
50.3% / 51.3% |
3.3 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
30.4% / 54.1% |
21.1 / 33.8 |
| 16 | SF | 21 – 22 L | 5.7 | 32.1% / 47.6% |
14.3% / 9.5% |
8.3% / 2.6% |
2.8 / 6.0 |
33.3% / 18.2% |
16.7% / 24.2% |
3.3 / 2.2 |
58 / 75 |
33.3% / 36.5% |
32.8% / 34.7% |
36.5% / 14.8% |
3.1 / 4.3 |
0.0% / 1.3% |
51.7% / 44.0% |
35.9 / 26.7 |
| 17 | ARI | 6 – 44 L | -16.1 | 22.9% / 44.2% |
20.0% / 2.3% |
7.1% / 4.8% |
2.0 / 6.0 |
36.4% / 33.3% |
40.9% / 33.3% |
2.4 / 3.5 |
57 / 67 |
31.7% / 43.1% |
28.1% / 40.3% |
42.3% / 42.7% |
2.2 / 5.1 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
38.6% / 35.8% |
29.2 / 38.7 |