Game Analysis

Lean – Over (46) – JACKSONVILLE (-3) vs Indianapolis

• Trevor Lawrence leads the NFL with 9 completions on passes with at least 20 air yards, but his short passing has been a major challenge for Jacksonville’s offense.
• Lawrence has a career-high 21% off-target rate and a -8.5% completion percentage versus expectation (3rd-worst). Lawrence was -0.5% versus expectation last year and I expect his short passing to improve.
• Only 30% of Lawrence’s passing yards have come after the catch but the Jaguars are likely to have TE Evan Engram back in uniform this week. Engram had 528 yards after the catch last season, ranking 2nd among tight ends.
• Anthony Richardson has only 2 yards passing versus the blitz this season, but he is averaging 8.3 yppp against a standard pass rush and he has a favorable matchup on Sunday as Jacksonville’s defense leads the NFL with an 82.1% standard pass rush rate.
• Jaguars edge defender Josh Hines-Allen got a concussion in the third quarter last game and is likely out this week. Hines-Allen ranked 3rd in pass-rushing efficiency last season and is worth 1.7 points by our metrics.
• Jacksonville’s pass rush will not be able to get home without Hines-Allen. Jaguars’ interior defender Roy Robertson-Harris ranks 17th in pass-rushing efficiency and he will likely be kept in check by LG Quenton Nelson, who has conceded 4 pressures (9th).
• Jacksonville’s defense will also possibly be without both starting linebackers Foyesade Oluokun and Devin Lloyd, who are worth 0.9 points combined.
• The Jaguars call middle-field open coverage on 65.6% of snaps (5th-highest) and they will struggle as Indianapolis is averaging 41% more yards per pass play versus middle-field open than middle-field closed coverage (2nd).
• Colts’ slot WR Josh Downs was out to start the year but he had 9 targets for 82 yards last week and he has a favorable matchup on the inside across from nickelback Jarrian Jones, who is allowing 1.40 yards per cover snap in the slot (6th-worst).
• Rain is expected in Jacksonville during the game, which is the only factor stopping this game from flying over.
• Our model favors the Jaguars by 6.1 with a predicted total of 48.5 (weather adjustment includes, as it always is).