Game Analysis

JACKSONVILLE (-3.5) vs Indianapolis

• Trevor Lawrence leads the NFL with 9 completions on passes with at least 20 air yards, but his short passing has been a major challenge for Jacksonville’s offense.
• Lawrence has a career-high 21% off-target rate and a -8.5% completion percentage versus expectation (3rd-worst). Lawrence was -0.5% versus expectation last year and I expect his short passing to improve.
• Jacksonville’s defense will also possibly be without both starting linebackers Foyesade Oluokun and Devin Lloyd, who are worth 0.9 points combined.
• The Jaguars call middle-field open coverage on 65.6% of snaps (5th-highest) and Joe Flacco should be able to find the holes in the defense as Indianapolis is averaging 41% more yards per pass play versus middle-field open than middle-field closed coverage (2nd).
• Colts’ slot WR Josh Downs was out to start the year but he had 9 targets for 82 yards last week and he has a favorable matchup on the inside across from nickelback Jarrian Jones, who is allowing 1.40 yards per cover snap in the slot (6th-worst).
• Our model favors the Jaguars by 7.3 points, with a predicted total of 46.3, but Indy applies to a 103-43-3 ATS situation, which will keep us off Jacksonville.