Indianapolis Colts @

Jacksonville Jaguars

Sun, Jan 9
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 457
Odds: Jacksonville Jaguars +14.5, Total: 43.5

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – Indianapolis Team Total Under (30)

Lean – JACKSONVILLE (+14.5) over Indianapolis

Lean – Under (43.5)

The Colts averaged only 4.8 yards per play versus the Jaguars in the first meeting this season because Jacksonville’s defense has the ability to control the Indianapolis running backs. RB Nyheim Hines is averaging 1.47 yards per route run (8th) and RB Jonathan Taylor is averaging 1.32 yards per route run (10th), but the Jaguars have conceded just 471 receiving yards to opposing running backs all season (4th) and they will limit the screens from Carson Wentz. Jacksonville’s defense is allowing just 4.0 yards per rush at home this year, so they could also slow down the Indy rushing attack. LT Eric Fisher is banged-up with a knee injury and ranks 50th in pass blocking efficiency out of 53 qualifying tackles. Fisher will struggle to stay in front of Jaguars edge defender Josh Allen, who has 46 pressures (23rd). Furthermore, Jacksonville edge defender Dawuane Smoot will return to the lineup this week after missing last game with covid and he ranks 28th in pass rushing efficiency.

Trevor Lawrence is averaging just 5.3 yppp (29th) in a disappointing rookie season and he is unlikely to improve this week without starting LT Cam Robinson and starting center Brandon Linder. Jaguars’ backup left tackle Walker Little has surrendered 2 sacks in less than 100 pass blocking snaps and Pro Bowl interior defender DeForest Buckner (14th in pass rushing efficiency) will line up across from backup C Tyler Shatley.

Our model favors the Colts by 10.3 points, with a predicted total of 39.3 points. In don’t trust the Jaguars’ offense to play to their rating so the Indy Team Total Under 29 or more is a Strong Opinion. The alternate play is the game under 43.5 (at 43 or more).

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Colts
  • Jaguars
IND
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 32.38 37.31
  • Succ Pass Plays 44.2% 50.1%
  • Sack Rate 5.0% 5.4%
  • Int Rate 1.4% 3.2%
  • Deep Pass Rate 16.7% 16.1%
  • Big Pass Yards 38.5% 30.9%
  • NYPP 6.22 6.30



Rush


  • Rush Plays 30.06 24.25
  • RB YPR 5.09 4.16
  • Stuff Rate 23.9% 21.9%
  • Succ Rush Plays 52.0% 50.8%
  • Big Rush Yards 54.0% 44.2%
  • Yards Per Rush 5.09 4.52




Game

  • All Snaps 62.44 61.56
  • Early Down Succ 49.7% 54.3%
  • Succ Rate 47.9% 50.4%
  • Big Yards Rate 45.0% 35.0%
  • Yards Per Play 5.67 5.60
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 1.3%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 31.13 28.01
  • Run Ratio 48.1% 39.4%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control 4.85 -4.85
 
  • Points 27.50 21.19
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