Game Analysis
Strong Opinion – Indianapolis Team Total Under (30)
Lean – JACKSONVILLE (+14.5) over Indianapolis
Lean – Under (43.5)
The Colts averaged only 4.8 yards per play versus the Jaguars in the first meeting this season because Jacksonville’s defense has the ability to control the Indianapolis running backs. RB Nyheim Hines is averaging 1.47 yards per route run (8th) and RB Jonathan Taylor is averaging 1.32 yards per route run (10th), but the Jaguars have conceded just 471 receiving yards to opposing running backs all season (4th) and they will limit the screens from Carson Wentz. Jacksonville’s defense is allowing just 4.0 yards per rush at home this year, so they could also slow down the Indy rushing attack. LT Eric Fisher is banged-up with a knee injury and ranks 50th in pass blocking efficiency out of 53 qualifying tackles. Fisher will struggle to stay in front of Jaguars edge defender Josh Allen, who has 46 pressures (23rd). Furthermore, Jacksonville edge defender Dawuane Smoot will return to the lineup this week after missing last game with covid and he ranks 28th in pass rushing efficiency.
Trevor Lawrence is averaging just 5.3 yppp (29th) in a disappointing rookie season and he is unlikely to improve this week without starting LT Cam Robinson and starting center Brandon Linder. Jaguars’ backup left tackle Walker Little has surrendered 2 sacks in less than 100 pass blocking snaps and Pro Bowl interior defender DeForest Buckner (14th in pass rushing efficiency) will line up across from backup C Tyler Shatley.
Our model favors the Colts by 10.3 points, with a predicted total of 39.3 points. In don’t trust the Jaguars’ offense to play to their rating so the Indy Team Total Under 29 or more is a Strong Opinion. The alternate play is the game under 43.5 (at 43 or more).
Pass
-
Pass Plays
32.38
37.31
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.2%
50.1%
-
Sack Rate
5.0%
5.4%
-
Int Rate
1.4%
3.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.7%
16.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.5%
30.9%
-
NYPP
6.22
6.30
Rush
-
Rush Plays
30.06
24.25
-
RB YPR
5.09
4.16
-
Stuff Rate
23.9%
21.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
52.0%
50.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
54.0%
44.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
5.09
4.52
Game
-
All Snaps
62.44
61.56
-
Early Down Succ
49.7%
54.3%
-
Succ Rate
47.9%
50.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
45.0%
35.0%
-
Yards Per Play
5.67
5.60
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
1.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
31.13
28.01
-
Run Ratio
48.1%
39.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.00
0.00
-
Game Control
4.85
-4.85
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.69
33.75
-
Succ Pass Plays
43.9%
50.9%
-
Sack Rate
5.1%
4.8%
-
Int Rate
3.0%
1.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.5%
15.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
33.3%
38.6%
-
NYPP
5.34
6.92
Rush
-
Rush Plays
22.50
29.69
-
RB YPR
4.42
3.98
-
Stuff Rate
20.6%
21.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
50.8%
50.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
38.0%
36.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.58
4.28
Game
-
All Snaps
60.19
63.44
-
Early Down Succ
50.6%
53.6%
-
Succ Rate
46.5%
50.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
34.8%
37.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.06
5.68
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.2%
0.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.86
31.18
-
Run Ratio
37.4%
46.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.00
0.00
-
Game Control
-8.06
8.06
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
SEA |
16 – 28 L |
-7.55 |
48.8% /
57.7% |
7.3% /
11.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.44 /
9.27 |
60.0% /
66.7% |
13.3% /
14.8% |
3.77 /
5.19 |
71 /
53 |
60.0% /
69.0% |
53.5% /
62.3% |
9.9% /
51.0% |
4.73 /
7.19 |
1.4% /
1.9% |
42.3% /
50.9% |
23.18 /
32.70 |
| 2 |
LA |
24 – 27 L |
-3.60 |
46.2% /
58.1% |
7.7% /
3.2% |
5.6% /
3.3% |
6.28 /
8.71 |
53.8% /
50.0% |
23.1% /
21.4% |
4.19 /
3.61 |
65 /
59 |
51.9% /
59.2% |
49.2% /
54.2% |
36.2% /
40.6% |
5.45 /
6.29 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
40.0% /
47.5% |
29.70 /
24.40 |
| 3 |
@TEN |
16 – 25 L |
-4.29 |
30.8% /
53.6% |
5.1% /
3.6% |
0.0% /
7.4% |
4.56 /
6.71 |
61.1% /
37.8% |
16.7% /
27.0% |
4.83 /
4.86 |
57 /
65 |
42.9% /
42.3% |
40.4% /
44.6% |
30.6% /
39.8% |
4.65 /
5.66 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
31.6% /
56.9% |
31.44 /
26.78 |
| 4 |
@MIA |
27 – 17 W |
4.25 |
35.3% /
51.5% |
5.9% /
9.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.18 /
5.09 |
42.4% /
50.0% |
39.4% /
31.3% |
4.21 /
2.19 |
67 /
49 |
37.3% /
58.8% |
38.8% /
51.0% |
56.1% /
47.4% |
5.21 /
4.14 |
1.5% /
4.1% |
49.3% /
32.7% |
32.40 /
31.50 |
| 5 |
@BLT |
25 – 31 L |
8.82 |
54.1% /
77.8% |
5.4% /
4.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.54 /
9.71 |
61.5% /
44.0% |
23.1% /
24.0% |
4.73 /
3.44 |
63 /
70 |
58.8% /
71.7% |
57.1% /
65.7% |
61.7% /
32.4% |
8.14 /
7.47 |
1.6% /
1.4% |
41.3% /
35.7% |
22.50 /
20.80 |
| 6 |
HST |
31 – 3 W |
12.03 |
40.9% /
51.1% |
9.1% /
4.4% |
0.0% /
4.7% |
9.73 /
5.09 |
30.8% /
34.5% |
26.9% /
34.5% |
6.69 /
4.28 |
48 /
74 |
36.1% /
41.8% |
35.4% /
44.6% |
65.5% /
24.5% |
8.08 /
4.77 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
54.2% /
39.2% |
25.00 /
23.55 |
| 7 |
@SF |
30 – 18 W |
-0.02 |
25.9% /
37.9% |
3.7% /
6.9% |
0.0% /
7.4% |
5.44 /
5.83 |
42.4% /
50.0% |
33.3% /
20.8% |
4.48 /
4.63 |
60 /
53 |
31.8% /
53.7% |
35.0% /
43.4% |
54.0% /
49.3% |
4.92 /
5.28 |
3.3% /
3.8% |
55.0% /
45.3% |
36.46 /
28.36 |
| 8 |
TEN |
31 – 34 L |
3.46 |
42.3% /
43.2% |
1.9% /
8.1% |
3.9% /
5.9% |
4.31 /
6.68 |
70.0% /
35.5% |
5.0% /
25.8% |
4.15 /
3.00 |
72 /
68 |
50.9% /
37.0% |
50.0% /
39.7% |
31.2% /
23.2% |
4.26 /
5.00 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
27.8% /
45.6% |
30.92 /
29.25 |
| 9 |
NYJ |
45 – 30 W |
13.38 |
64.5% /
50.0% |
3.2% /
3.7% |
0.0% /
1.9% |
8.77 /
7.37 |
50.0% /
57.1% |
16.7% /
19.0% |
8.67 /
4.19 |
61 /
75 |
60.4% /
51.7% |
57.4% /
52.0% |
58.3% /
24.2% |
8.72 /
6.48 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
49.2% /
28.0% |
29.00 /
20.45 |
| 10 |
JAX |
23 – 17 W |
8.74 |
34.3% /
34.2% |
2.9% /
7.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.80 /
4.00 |
48.1% /
58.3% |
29.6% /
16.7% |
4.70 /
7.46 |
62 /
62 |
45.7% /
50.0% |
40.3% /
43.5% |
26.4% /
49.0% |
4.76 /
5.34 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
43.5% /
38.7% |
25.50 /
26.62 |
| 11 |
@BUF |
41 – 15 W |
15.20 |
45.0% /
51.2% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
0.0% /
7.5% |
5.30 /
5.27 |
65.2% /
69.2% |
19.6% /
7.7% |
5.74 /
7.00 |
66 /
54 |
58.5% /
58.1% |
59.1% /
55.6% |
43.0% /
27.9% |
5.61 /
5.69 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
69.7% /
24.1% |
46.56 /
22.56 |
| 12 |
TB |
31 – 38 L |
1.88 |
51.1% /
50.0% |
6.4% /
5.6% |
4.5% /
2.9% |
6.06 /
6.03 |
55.0% /
77.8% |
20.0% /
7.4% |
5.35 /
5.26 |
67 /
63 |
54.9% /
69.8% |
52.2% /
61.9% |
42.4% /
38.0% |
5.85 /
5.70 |
4.5% /
1.6% |
29.9% /
42.9% |
33.50 /
33.15 |
| 13 |
@HST |
31 – 0 W |
13.77 |
56.5% /
25.8% |
4.3% /
12.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.57 /
1.84 |
56.3% /
36.8% |
22.9% /
31.6% |
4.96 /
4.42 |
71 /
50 |
56.1% /
36.4% |
56.3% /
30.0% |
36.4% /
9.0% |
5.48 /
2.82 |
1.4% /
2.0% |
67.6% /
38.0% |
42.50 /
20.82 |
| 15 |
NE |
27 – 17 W |
11.85 |
30.8% /
47.8% |
7.7% /
2.2% |
8.3% /
4.4% |
3.77 /
6.17 |
59.0% /
47.4% |
20.5% /
26.3% |
5.79 /
4.26 |
52 /
65 |
56.4% /
51.1% |
51.9% /
47.7% |
56.9% /
34.5% |
5.29 /
5.62 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
75.0% /
29.2% |
34.70 /
27.10 |
| 16 |
@ARZ |
22 – 16 W |
2.29 |
50.0% /
51.2% |
6.7% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.33 /
5.70 |
24.2% /
61.9% |
39.4% /
19.0% |
3.82 /
6.33 |
63 /
64 |
32.6% /
58.3% |
36.5% /
54.7% |
54.4% /
38.4% |
5.49 /
5.91 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
52.4% /
32.8% |
35.10 /
26.33 |
| 17 |
LV |
20 – 23 L |
-2.59 |
42.9% /
52.9% |
3.6% /
5.9% |
0.0% /
6.3% |
5.00 /
7.09 |
53.8% /
51.9% |
23.1% /
18.5% |
4.69 /
3.15 |
54 /
61 |
52.4% /
53.3% |
48.1% /
52.5% |
37.4% /
27.1% |
4.85 /
5.34 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
48.1% /
44.3% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@HST |
21 – 37 L |
-14.37 |
38.5% /
55.9% |
1.9% /
2.9% |
5.9% /
0.0% |
6.13 /
8.50 |
62.5% /
48.8% |
18.8% /
19.5% |
4.75 /
3.90 |
68 /
75 |
47.3% /
50.9% |
44.1% /
52.0% |
38.7% /
46.6% |
5.81 /
5.99 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
23.5% /
54.7% |
21.36 /
33.43 |
| 2 |
DEN |
13 – 23 L |
-3.44 |
32.4% /
51.4% |
2.9% /
8.1% |
6.1% /
0.0% |
3.35 /
8.16 |
50.0% /
46.7% |
18.8% /
33.3% |
4.69 /
3.20 |
50 /
67 |
36.8% /
56.9% |
38.0% /
49.3% |
42.5% /
34.9% |
3.78 /
5.94 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.0% /
44.8% |
20.67 /
32.09 |
| 3 |
ARZ |
19 – 31 L |
-3.29 |
51.4% /
61.8% |
8.1% /
0.0% |
5.9% /
2.9% |
5.46 /
9.29 |
65.5% /
56.7% |
17.2% /
23.3% |
5.48 /
3.03 |
66 /
64 |
67.3% /
66.0% |
57.6% /
59.4% |
32.0% /
34.9% |
5.47 /
6.36 |
3.0% /
0.0% |
43.9% /
46.9% |
25.67 /
21.91 |
| 4 |
@CIN |
21 – 24 L |
4.43 |
60.0% /
54.5% |
4.0% /
3.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.08 /
10.36 |
53.3% /
45.5% |
13.3% /
18.2% |
4.63 /
3.55 |
55 /
55 |
60.0% /
51.1% |
56.4% /
50.9% |
47.8% /
49.8% |
6.20 /
7.64 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
54.5% /
40.0% |
27.00 /
17.33 |
| 5 |
TEN |
19 – 37 L |
-9.28 |
54.3% /
40.0% |
5.7% /
12.0% |
3.0% /
0.0% |
7.31 /
7.36 |
61.3% /
63.9% |
19.4% /
13.9% |
6.39 /
5.11 |
66 /
61 |
65.4% /
57.4% |
57.6% /
54.1% |
41.4% /
45.9% |
6.88 /
6.03 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
47.0% /
59.0% |
24.73 /
30.78 |
| 6 |
MIA |
23 – 20 W |
-1.94 |
51.2% /
50.0% |
4.7% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
2.1% |
7.26 /
7.38 |
31.6% /
40.0% |
21.1% /
20.0% |
4.42 /
3.85 |
62 /
68 |
51.1% /
44.9% |
45.2% /
47.1% |
44.2% /
40.6% |
6.39 /
6.34 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
30.6% /
29.4% |
29.73 /
25.91 |
| 8 |
@SEA |
7 – 31 L |
-14.52 |
52.7% /
51.9% |
1.8% /
11.1% |
1.9% /
0.0% |
4.13 /
5.93 |
47.4% /
44.0% |
10.5% /
32.0% |
4.32 /
2.76 |
74 /
52 |
57.1% /
53.8% |
51.4% /
48.1% |
4.4% /
36.0% |
4.18 /
4.40 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
25.7% /
48.1% |
22.09 /
34.11 |
| 9 |
BUF |
9 – 6 W |
0.59 |
33.3% /
43.1% |
6.7% /
7.8% |
0.0% /
4.3% |
4.63 /
4.49 |
33.3% /
35.7% |
37.0% /
21.4% |
2.93 /
5.14 |
57 /
65 |
36.6% /
45.7% |
33.3% /
41.5% |
33.5% /
29.5% |
3.82 /
4.63 |
1.8% /
1.5% |
47.4% /
21.5% |
32.90 /
27.67 |
| 10 |
@IND |
17 – 23 L |
-8.74 |
34.2% /
34.3% |
7.9% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.00 /
4.80 |
58.3% /
48.1% |
16.7% /
29.6% |
7.46 /
4.70 |
62 /
62 |
50.0% /
45.7% |
43.5% /
40.3% |
49.0% /
26.4% |
5.34 /
4.76 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
38.7% /
43.5% |
26.62 /
25.50 |
| 11 |
SF |
10 – 30 L |
-14.29 |
42.9% /
66.7% |
10.7% /
8.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.21 /
6.75 |
50.0% /
42.9% |
18.8% /
26.2% |
3.38 /
4.07 |
44 /
66 |
45.2% /
51.9% |
45.5% /
51.5% |
15.1% /
42.9% |
4.55 /
5.05 |
4.5% /
0.0% |
36.4% /
63.6% |
24.71 /
27.67 |
| 12 |
ATL |
14 – 21 L |
-8.35 |
37.2% /
53.3% |
2.3% /
3.3% |
2.4% /
3.4% |
5.02 /
6.10 |
67.9% /
51.7% |
7.1% /
17.2% |
5.04 /
5.14 |
71 /
59 |
50.0% /
56.5% |
49.3% /
52.5% |
39.0% /
30.7% |
5.03 /
5.63 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
39.4% /
49.2% |
24.10 /
30.70 |
| 13 |
@LA |
7 – 37 L |
-14.25 |
40.0% /
59.0% |
6.7% /
2.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.53 /
7.44 |
28.0% /
59.3% |
40.0% /
18.5% |
2.44 /
4.74 |
55 /
66 |
31.7% /
63.5% |
34.5% /
59.1% |
24.8% /
42.8% |
3.58 /
6.33 |
3.6% /
0.0% |
45.5% /
40.9% |
27.09 /
28.40 |
| 14 |
@TEN |
0 – 20 L |
-10.30 |
37.2% /
48.6% |
7.0% /
11.4% |
10.0% /
0.0% |
4.28 /
4.60 |
12.5% /
38.2% |
62.5% /
32.4% |
1.00 /
3.00 |
51 /
69 |
31.4% /
46.2% |
33.3% /
43.5% |
31.4% /
18.1% |
3.76 /
3.81 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
15.7% /
49.3% |
27.18 /
33.55 |
| 15 |
HST |
16 – 30 L |
-7.36 |
41.5% /
35.5% |
7.3% /
3.2% |
0.0% /
3.3% |
4.61 /
6.65 |
41.7% /
38.5% |
25.0% /
19.2% |
4.29 /
2.88 |
65 /
57 |
48.9% /
28.9% |
41.5% /
36.8% |
31.6% /
34.5% |
4.49 /
4.93 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.9% /
45.6% |
25.73 /
35.40 |
| 16 |
@NYJ |
21 – 26 L |
-2.12 |
55.0% /
34.8% |
2.5% /
4.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.30 /
4.35 |
58.1% /
58.3% |
16.1% /
16.7% |
4.26 /
7.58 |
71 /
59 |
59.3% /
52.4% |
56.3% /
49.2% |
22.6% /
56.0% |
5.41 /
6.32 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
43.7% /
61.0% |
18.22 /
30.50 |
| 17 |
@NE |
10 – 50 L |
-21.66 |
41.4% /
73.5% |
6.9% /
0.0% |
11.1% /
0.0% |
5.97 /
8.53 |
58.8% /
75.0% |
11.8% /
8.3% |
4.71 /
5.03 |
46 /
70 |
54.3% /
73.3% |
47.8% /
74.3% |
47.3% /
26.3% |
5.50 /
6.73 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.0% /
51.4% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
Indianapolis Colts
@ 
Jacksonville Jaguars