Game Analysis
Indianapolis (-8) at JACKSONVILLE
The Colts closed as 4.5-point road favorites in Jacksonville the last time we saw these teams in week 17 last year. Now, we’re seeing this number move through the key number of 7 with the amount of fans allowed in the stadium reducing home field advantage, the Colts’ addition of Philip Rivers, and the Jaguars fire sale this off-season. Jacksonville got rid of all three remaining Pro Bowl defenders they had in Calais Campbell, AJ Bouye, and Yannick Ngakoue.
Now, the Jaguars have one of the least talented defenses I’ve ever seen to start a season. DJ Hayden is probably the only player worth even a half point as the nickelback finished the best in completion percentage over expectation allowed in the slot last year. Jacksonville’s defense surrendered 6.3 yards per play (31st) after Jalen Ramsey departed in week 4 and it could get much worse this season. The Jaguars are fielding the second-youngest opening week roster going back 5 seasons.
Rivers will go from playing behind some truly awful offensive lines with the Chargers to probably the best unit in the NFL and I think Frank Reich is a top-notch play-caller. The Indianapolis offense should finish in the top half of the league, especially if TY Hilton can stay healthy. Hilton gained 2.54 yards per route run (4th) with a competent QB under center (Andrew Luck) and Reich calling the plays in 2018.
The Jaguars rush defense ranked 30th in 2019 and the Colts are likely to have one of the best ground games in the NFL. Indianapolis rushed for 6.3 yards per carry in the two games versus Jacksonville last year and should have success in that regard again.
Offensively, wide receiver DJ Chark (coming off a 1000-yard season) is the only real threat for the Jaguars. Our metrics have Gardner Minshew rated as the second-worst starting quarterback in the league so it will be a challenge for the Jags to win games this season given how bad they are on both sides of the ball.
The Colts defense will improve with the addition of interior defender DeForest Buckner (11th in pass rush efficiency) coming over from San Francisco and we expect them to finish around the league-average.
Our model tends to agree with the market move making Indianapolis a 7.6-point favorite with a predicted total of 44.8.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.1
37.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
42.2%
47.4%
-
Sack Rate
6.3%
6.9%
-
Int Rate
1.8%
2.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.9%
16.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
29.6%
34.6%
-
NYPP
5.6
6.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.4
23.9
-
RB YPR
4.3
3.8
-
Stuff Rate
23.4%
25.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
50.1%
44.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
39.3%
40.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
4.0
Game
-
All Snaps
63.5
61.6
-
Early Down Succ
48.4%
48.3%
-
Succ Rate
46.6%
46.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
37.5%
37.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.2
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.1%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.6
29.3
-
Run Ratio
46.2%
38.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.4
28.9
-
Game Control
0.2
-0.2
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.4
35.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
41.7%
47.8%
-
Sack Rate
6.6%
8.1%
-
Int Rate
1.3%
1.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.0%
18.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
40.9%
47.0%
-
NYPP
6.0
6.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.3
27.3
-
RB YPR
3.8
4.8
-
Stuff Rate
21.3%
21.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.0%
50.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
44.6%
50.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.2
4.9
Game
-
All Snaps
63.8
62.5
-
Early Down Succ
43.5%
51.7%
-
Succ Rate
41.2%
48.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.0%
50.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.4
6.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.1%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.8
28.3
-
Run Ratio
37.6%
43.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
25.7
29.6
-
Game Control
-5.3
5.3
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@LAC |
24 – 30 L |
-6.2 |
44.8% /
52.6% |
6.9% /
10.5% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
6.0 /
8.2 |
66.7% /
57.1% |
15.2% /
23.8% |
6.2 /
6.0 |
62 /
59 |
56.3% /
52.1% |
56.5% /
54.2% |
38.0% /
57.9% |
6.1 /
7.4 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
53.2% /
35.6% |
26.4 /
30.0 |
| 2 |
@TEN |
19 – 17 W |
1.3 |
45.2% /
37.5% |
9.7% /
12.5% |
3.6% /
0.0% |
3.9 /
3.7 |
47.1% /
50.0% |
29.4% /
20.8% |
4.9 /
5.1 |
65 /
56 |
45.8% /
52.3% |
46.2% /
42.9% |
27.8% /
38.4% |
4.4 /
4.3 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
52.3% /
42.9% |
26.5 /
31.5 |
| 3 |
ATL |
27 – 24 W |
8.1 |
60.5% /
61.8% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
7.9 /
8.9 |
41.7% /
50.0% |
33.3% /
25.0% |
3.3 /
4.7 |
62 /
54 |
53.8% /
53.5% |
53.2% /
57.4% |
34.6% /
35.0% |
6.1 /
7.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
38.7% /
37.0% |
20.9 /
24.0 |
| 4 |
OAK |
24 – 31 L |
-10.8 |
34.8% /
43.8% |
0.0% /
3.1% |
2.2% /
0.0% |
5.8 /
5.9 |
47.8% /
46.9% |
34.8% /
21.9% |
3.5 /
5.9 |
69 /
64 |
36.7% /
46.0% |
39.1% /
45.3% |
45.7% /
38.5% |
5.0 /
5.9 |
1.4% /
1.6% |
33.3% /
50.0% |
28.7 /
23.5 |
| 5 |
@KC |
19 – 13 W |
1.9 |
48.3% /
39.5% |
0.0% /
9.3% |
3.4% /
0.0% |
5.2 /
6.7 |
68.9% /
42.9% |
11.1% /
35.7% |
4.0 /
2.6 |
74 /
57 |
67.9% /
42.9% |
60.8% /
40.4% |
22.4% /
53.1% |
4.5 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
60.8% /
24.6% |
32.0 /
25.1 |
| 7 |
HOU |
30 – 23 W |
6.0 |
46.3% /
54.1% |
2.4% /
8.1% |
0.0% /
5.9% |
7.8 /
7.9 |
26.9% /
50.0% |
38.5% /
33.3% |
2.4 /
4.2 |
67 /
61 |
37.5% /
58.7% |
38.8% /
52.5% |
42.0% /
40.4% |
5.7 /
6.4 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
38.8% /
39.3% |
25.9 /
31.7 |
| 8 |
DEN |
15 – 13 W |
-2.8 |
44.8% /
28.6% |
13.8% /
8.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
4.7 |
58.1% /
50.0% |
29.0% /
21.4% |
4.1 /
4.0 |
60 /
63 |
57.4% /
43.1% |
51.7% /
38.1% |
32.7% /
39.4% |
5.3 /
4.4 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
51.7% /
44.4% |
21.9 /
28.9 |
| 9 |
@PIT |
24 – 26 L |
0.9 |
44.4% /
38.9% |
13.9% /
2.8% |
3.2% /
2.9% |
5.3 /
5.1 |
51.7% /
32.0% |
24.1% /
36.0% |
4.8 /
3.6 |
65 /
61 |
50.0% /
37.8% |
47.7% /
36.1% |
28.7% /
31.1% |
5.0 /
4.5 |
3.1% /
1.6% |
44.6% /
41.0% |
35.8 /
30.2 |
| 10 |
MIA |
12 – 16 L |
-4.1 |
37.5% /
36.1% |
2.5% /
8.3% |
7.7% /
3.0% |
4.8 /
4.4 |
41.4% /
26.9% |
31.0% /
38.5% |
3.8 /
2.7 |
69 /
62 |
41.5% /
30.2% |
39.1% /
32.3% |
55.0% /
22.7% |
4.3 /
3.7 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
42.0% /
41.9% |
32.5 /
33.4 |
| 11 |
JAC |
33 – 13 W |
7.1 |
40.7% /
42.9% |
11.1% /
4.1% |
4.2% /
2.1% |
4.6 /
5.7 |
58.3% /
33.3% |
8.3% /
33.3% |
7.3 /
3.2 |
63 /
58 |
56.3% /
41.9% |
50.8% /
41.4% |
52.7% /
28.6% |
6.2 /
5.3 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
57.1% /
15.5% |
24.0 /
30.3 |
| 12 |
@HOU |
17 – 20 L |
-0.4 |
46.2% /
48.4% |
3.8% /
3.2% |
0.0% /
3.3% |
4.7 /
9.6 |
53.8% /
45.8% |
10.3% /
41.7% |
4.5 /
4.1 |
65 /
55 |
50.0% /
48.8% |
50.8% /
47.3% |
17.9% /
59.6% |
4.6 /
7.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
60.0% /
43.6% |
25.2 /
26.6 |
| 13 |
TEN |
17 – 31 L |
1.1 |
48.8% /
39.3% |
7.0% /
21.4% |
5.0% /
0.0% |
7.2 /
4.9 |
37.5% /
50.0% |
25.0% /
10.0% |
3.4 /
5.1 |
67 /
58 |
46.3% /
47.6% |
44.8% /
44.8% |
36.3% /
41.8% |
5.8 /
5.0 |
1.5% /
3.4% |
35.8% /
51.7% |
27.5 /
32.8 |
| 14 |
@TB |
35 – 38 L |
4.4 |
29.7% /
62.0% |
2.7% /
2.0% |
0.0% /
6.1% |
6.6 /
9.3 |
45.5% /
35.7% |
31.8% /
10.7% |
3.0 /
2.7 |
59 /
78 |
32.5% /
53.3% |
35.6% /
52.6% |
47.2% /
42.1% |
5.2 /
6.9 |
1.7% /
1.3% |
37.3% /
35.9% |
35.8 /
27.5 |
| 15 |
@NO |
7 – 34 L |
-18.0 |
37.1% /
76.7% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.5 /
10.2 |
35.3% /
48.5% |
23.5% /
12.1% |
2.7 /
3.5 |
52 /
63 |
39.5% /
65.4% |
36.5% /
61.9% |
32.2% /
36.3% |
3.9 /
6.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.7% /
52.4% |
22.0 /
30.3 |
| 16 |
CAR |
38 – 6 W |
16.9 |
33.3% /
40.0% |
10.0% /
10.0% |
0.0% /
6.7% |
3.5 /
4.0 |
65.6% /
52.4% |
6.3% /
14.3% |
6.8 /
4.1 |
62 /
71 |
55.3% /
47.2% |
50.0% /
43.7% |
49.1% /
18.5% |
5.2 /
4.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
51.6% /
29.6% |
25.7 /
22.1 |
| 17 |
@JAC |
20 – 38 L |
-1.7 |
32.1% /
57.1% |
10.7% /
7.1% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
5.1 /
6.8 |
55.6% /
41.7% |
22.2% /
20.8% |
4.9 /
2.8 |
55 /
66 |
47.6% /
52.0% |
43.6% /
51.5% |
38.2% /
19.5% |
5.0 /
5.3 |
3.6% /
0.0% |
49.1% /
36.4% |
27.9 /
33.8 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
KC |
26 – 40 L |
-11.7 |
52.9% /
58.8% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
3.0% /
0.0% |
10.2 /
11.1 |
43.8% /
57.7% |
12.5% /
26.9% |
5.1 /
4.3 |
50 /
60 |
50.0% /
62.5% |
50.0% /
58.3% |
55.4% /
62.3% |
8.6 /
8.2 |
2.0% /
0.0% |
32.0% /
43.3% |
23.8 /
38.4 |
| 2 |
@HOU |
12 – 13 L |
-3.3 |
40.5% /
36.4% |
10.8% /
12.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.8 /
4.2 |
42.9% /
56.7% |
14.3% /
16.7% |
4.9 /
4.2 |
58 /
63 |
44.2% /
46.8% |
41.4% /
46.0% |
40.6% /
35.0% |
4.8 /
4.2 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
36.2% /
47.6% |
26.0 /
26.8 |
| 3 |
TEN |
20 – 7 W |
13.0 |
43.3% /
30.6% |
0.0% /
18.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.8 /
5.1 |
15.0% /
53.8% |
45.0% /
19.2% |
4.4 /
3.5 |
50 /
75 |
37.8% /
36.8% |
32.0% /
38.7% |
56.8% /
57.1% |
5.8 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
40.0% /
34.7% |
25.7 /
28.9 |
| 4 |
@DEN |
26 – 24 W |
-5.0 |
36.8% /
52.6% |
13.2% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
4.9 /
8.0 |
50.0% /
43.8% |
10.5% /
12.5% |
7.1 /
4.3 |
76 /
54 |
45.9% /
54.8% |
43.4% /
50.0% |
52.1% /
52.3% |
6.0 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
29.6% |
24.0 /
27.0 |
| 5 |
@CAR |
27 – 34 L |
-5.8 |
52.2% /
44.1% |
4.3% /
8.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.8 /
4.7 |
45.2% /
55.6% |
25.8% /
18.5% |
4.8 /
10.6 |
77 /
61 |
50.8% /
54.2% |
49.4% /
49.2% |
57.8% /
63.8% |
6.6 /
7.3 |
3.9% /
0.0% |
40.3% /
44.3% |
22.9 /
28.8 |
| 6 |
NO |
6 – 13 L |
-2.4 |
38.7% /
48.7% |
6.5% /
7.7% |
3.4% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
5.7 |
25.0% /
65.4% |
16.7% /
19.2% |
3.1 /
4.0 |
55 /
65 |
35.0% /
62.0% |
32.7% /
55.4% |
35.8% /
36.5% |
4.1 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.6% /
40.0% |
18.1 /
32.1 |
| 7 |
@CIN |
27 – 17 W |
2.4 |
38.2% /
37.8% |
5.9% /
4.4% |
0.0% /
7.0% |
7.2 /
5.7 |
52.3% /
30.0% |
25.0% /
50.0% |
4.9 /
1.7 |
78 /
65 |
53.4% /
34.0% |
46.2% /
35.4% |
66.7% /
53.6% |
5.9 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
56.4% /
30.8% |
28.6 /
29.1 |
| 8 |
NYJ |
29 – 15 W |
8.5 |
50.0% /
44.7% |
5.6% /
21.1% |
0.0% /
10.0% |
7.7 /
4.4 |
17.6% /
46.7% |
44.1% /
26.7% |
3.3 /
3.1 |
70 /
53 |
32.0% /
51.2% |
34.3% /
45.3% |
55.3% /
39.0% |
5.6 /
4.0 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
48.6% /
28.3% |
36.9 /
26.5 |
| 9 |
HOU |
3 – 26 L |
-8.4 |
39.2% /
62.1% |
7.8% /
3.4% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
5.5 /
6.7 |
60.0% /
50.0% |
6.7% /
20.6% |
4.9 /
6.4 |
66 /
63 |
47.2% /
58.8% |
43.9% /
55.6% |
35.4% /
42.0% |
5.4 /
6.5 |
3.0% /
1.6% |
22.7% /
54.0% |
24.0 /
35.0 |
| 11 |
@IND |
13 – 33 L |
-7.1 |
42.9% /
40.7% |
4.1% /
11.1% |
2.1% /
4.2% |
5.7 /
4.6 |
33.3% /
58.3% |
33.3% /
8.3% |
3.2 /
7.3 |
58 /
63 |
41.9% /
56.3% |
41.4% /
50.8% |
28.6% /
52.7% |
5.3 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
15.5% /
57.1% |
30.3 /
24.0 |
| 12 |
@TEN |
20 – 42 L |
-12.2 |
43.1% /
73.7% |
5.9% /
5.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
13.3 |
44.4% /
48.5% |
7.4% /
18.2% |
4.3 /
6.6 |
78 /
52 |
45.6% /
65.0% |
43.6% /
57.7% |
30.9% /
67.7% |
4.7 /
9.1 |
1.3% /
3.8% |
34.6% /
63.5% |
23.0 /
32.6 |
| 13 |
TB |
11 – 28 L |
-16.8 |
23.9% /
43.2% |
10.9% /
10.8% |
4.9% /
0.0% |
4.2 /
6.5 |
41.2% /
29.0% |
29.4% /
45.2% |
2.9 /
2.4 |
63 /
68 |
28.3% /
34.7% |
28.6% /
36.8% |
40.9% /
61.0% |
3.8 /
4.6 |
3.2% /
1.5% |
27.0% /
45.6% |
28.7 /
37.4 |
| 14 |
LAC |
10 – 45 L |
-17.4 |
35.0% /
57.1% |
5.0% /
3.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.1 /
11.8 |
56.5% /
63.3% |
13.0% /
10.0% |
3.8 /
6.5 |
63 /
58 |
47.7% /
60.4% |
42.9% /
60.3% |
17.1% /
62.7% |
4.0 /
9.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.5% /
51.7% |
22.7 /
26.6 |
| 15 |
@OAK |
20 – 16 W |
-8.2 |
41.9% /
45.0% |
6.5% /
10.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
5.9 |
40.9% /
53.1% |
27.3% /
18.8% |
3.5 /
4.0 |
53 /
72 |
45.0% /
50.8% |
41.5% /
48.6% |
51.5% /
38.5% |
4.9 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.5% /
44.4% |
22.3 /
25.6 |
| 16 |
@ATL |
12 – 24 L |
-12.4 |
31.4% /
56.5% |
8.6% /
2.2% |
0.0% /
4.4% |
4.9 /
8.3 |
45.8% /
40.7% |
8.3% /
14.8% |
4.8 /
5.0 |
59 /
73 |
40.0% /
51.7% |
37.3% /
50.7% |
43.4% /
43.4% |
4.9 /
7.1 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
40.7% /
37.0% |
20.4 /
26.1 |
| 17 |
IND |
38 – 20 W |
1.7 |
57.1% /
32.1% |
7.1% /
10.7% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
6.8 /
5.1 |
41.7% /
55.6% |
20.8% /
22.2% |
2.8 /
4.9 |
66 /
55 |
52.0% /
47.6% |
51.5% /
43.6% |
19.5% /
38.2% |
5.3 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
3.6% |
36.4% /
49.1% |
33.8 /
27.9 |
Indianapolis Colts
@ 
Jacksonville Jaguars