Indianapolis Colts @

Jacksonville Jaguars

Sun, Sep 13
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 467
Odds: Jacksonville Jaguars +8, Total: 45

Game Analysis

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Indianapolis (-8) at JACKSONVILLE

The Colts closed as 4.5-point road favorites in Jacksonville the last time we saw these teams in week 17 last year. Now, we’re seeing this number move through the key number of 7 with the amount of fans allowed in the stadium reducing home field advantage, the Colts’ addition of Philip Rivers, and the Jaguars fire sale this off-season. Jacksonville got rid of all three remaining Pro Bowl defenders they had in Calais Campbell, AJ Bouye, and Yannick Ngakoue.

Now, the Jaguars have one of the least talented defenses I’ve ever seen to start a season. DJ Hayden is probably the only player worth even a half point as the nickelback finished the best in completion percentage over expectation allowed in the slot last year. Jacksonville’s defense surrendered 6.3 yards per play (31st) after Jalen Ramsey departed in week 4 and it could get much worse this season. The Jaguars are fielding the second-youngest opening week roster going back 5 seasons.

Rivers will go from playing behind some truly awful offensive lines with the Chargers to probably the best unit in the NFL and I think Frank Reich is a top-notch play-caller. The Indianapolis offense should finish in the top half of the league, especially if TY Hilton can stay healthy. Hilton gained 2.54 yards per route run (4th) with a competent QB under center (Andrew Luck) and Reich calling the plays in 2018.

The Jaguars rush defense ranked 30th in 2019 and the Colts are likely to have one of the best ground games in the NFL. Indianapolis rushed for 6.3 yards per carry in the two games versus Jacksonville last year and should have success in that regard again.

Offensively, wide receiver DJ Chark (coming off a 1000-yard season) is the only real threat for the Jaguars. Our metrics have Gardner Minshew rated as the second-worst starting quarterback in the league so it will be a challenge for the Jags to win games this season given how bad they are on both sides of the ball.

The Colts defense will improve with the addition of interior defender DeForest Buckner (11th in pass rush efficiency) coming over from San Francisco and we expect them to finish around the league-average.

Our model tends to agree with the market move making Indianapolis a 7.6-point favorite with a predicted total of 44.8.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Colts
  • Jaguars


  • Pass Plays 34.1 37.7
  • Succ Pass Plays 42.2% 47.4%
  • Sack Rate 6.3% 6.9%
  • Int Rate 1.8% 2.4%
  • Deep Pass Rate 17.9% 16.8%
  • Big Pass Yards 29.6% 34.6%
  • NYPP 5.6 6.6


  • Rush Plays 29.4 23.9
  • RB YPR 4.3 3.8
  • Stuff Rate 23.4% 25.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 50.1% 44.6%
  • Big Rush Yards 39.3% 40.8%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.3 4.0


  • All Snaps 63.5 61.6
  • Early Down Succ 48.4% 48.3%
  • Succ Rate 46.6% 46.4%
  • Big Yards Rate 37.5% 37.7%
  • Yards Per Play 5.2 5.6
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.1% 0.8%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.6 29.3
  • Run Ratio 46.2% 38.9%
  • Starting Field Pos 27.4 28.9
  • Game Control 0.2 -0.2
  • Points 22.6 23.3
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