Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Note: The first half Under 21 Best Bet is now out of range but I still lean Under for the first half and/or the game.

Best Bet – *First Half Under (21) – Indianapolis (-5) vs JACKSONVILLE

Jacoby Brissett has averaged just 5.6 yards per pass play in the month of December without TE Eric Ebron. Jack Doyle is averaging 6.5 targets per game in the 4 weeks without Ebron compared to less than 4 targets per game when his fellow tight end was healthy. However, Doyle should not be the focal point of an offense as he is gaining just 1.26 yards per route run (26th). Calais Campbell and Josh Allen both rank inside the top 25 edge defenders in pass rushing efficiency and the pair will take advantage of the weaker side of the Indianapolis offensive line. Right guard Mark Glowinski and right tackle Braden Smith have combined to surrender 80 pressures this season. Meanwhile, Quenton Nelson has not conceded a sack all year, but it looks like the All-Pro left guard could miss this game with a concussion and our metrics have him valued at 0.7 points. The Colts have the 2nd-best ground game in the NFL by our numbers and I expect Frank Reich’s offense to pound the rock against a Jaguars rush defense ranked 30th.

Leonard Fournette has 341 touches, second only to Christian McCaffrey, but the running back is one of the most overrated players in the league and has not been effective with the huge workload. Fournette is gaining only 1.08 yards per route run (33rd) and Jacksonville’s rush offense ranks 30th in efficiency. Gardner Minshew is also not looking like much of a threat after averaging less than 5 yards per pass play against a terrible Falcons secondary last week. Indianapolis nickelback Kenny Moore is in jeopardy of missing his fourth-straight game, but Dede Westbrook has been one of the worst slot receivers in the NFL averaging just 1.05 yards per route run and he likely won’t be able to exploit the Colts on the inside. Interior defender Denico Autry is recovering from a concussion, but edge rusher Justin Houston has 57 pressures (17th) and he has a favorable matchup across from left tackle Cam Robinson, who ranks 8th-worst in pass blocking efficiency.

The Indianapolis offense comes into this game overrated after scoring 38 points last week on only 5.2 yards per play. The Colts benefited from two punt return touchdowns and another punt return putting the offense in field goal range. Returns are mostly the result of luck and I expect Nyheim Hines to have a much quieter game. Our model makes Indianapolis a 3.1-point favorite with a predicted total of 38.2 points after adjusting for all of Jacksonville’s defensive injuries. Our numbers indicate playing the Under 21 (-105) in the first half is more valuable than full game Under 43 (-115). The first-half Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 21 points or more.

Team Stats
Game Log

Colts
Jaguars

IND

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 34.5 37.4
Succ Pass Plays 42.8% 46.8%
Sack Rate 6.0% 6.9%
Int Rate 2.0% 2.4%
Deep Pass Rate 17.9% 17.1%
Big Pass Yards 29.1% 35.3%
NYPP 5.6 6.6

Rush

Rush Plays 29.6 23.9
RB YPR 4.2 3.9
Stuff Rate 23.4% 25.2%
Succ Rush Plays 49.8% 44.8%
Big Rush Yards 39.4% 43.5%
Yards Per Rush 4.3 4.1

Game

All Snaps 64.1 61.3
Early Down Succ 48.5% 48.0%
Succ Rate 46.8% 46.0%
Big Yards Rate 37.5% 38.9%
Yards Per Play 5.2 5.7
Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 0.9%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.6 29.2
Run Ratio 46.0% 39.0%
Starting Field Pos 27.4 28.5
Game Control 0.4 -0.4

Points 22.7 22.3

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@LAC	24 – 30 L	-6.2	44.8% / 52.6%	6.9% / 10.5%	0.0% / 2.9%	6.0 / 8.2	66.7% / 57.1%	15.2% / 23.8%	6.2 / 6.0	62 / 59	56.3% / 52.1%	56.5% / 54.2%	38.0% / 57.9%	6.1 / 7.4	0.0% / 1.7%	53.2% / 35.6%	26.4 / 30.0
2	@TEN	19 – 17 W	1.3	45.2% / 37.5%	9.7% / 12.5%	3.6% / 0.0%	3.9 / 3.7	47.1% / 50.0%	29.4% / 20.8%	4.9 / 5.1	65 / 56	45.8% / 52.3%	46.2% / 42.9%	27.8% / 38.4%	4.4 / 4.3	1.5% / 0.0%	52.3% / 42.9%	26.5 / 31.5
3	ATL	27 – 24 W	8.1	60.5% / 61.8%	2.6% / 0.0%	0.0% / 2.9%	7.9 / 8.9	41.7% / 50.0%	33.3% / 25.0%	3.3 / 4.7	62 / 54	53.8% / 53.5%	53.2% / 57.4%	34.6% / 35.0%	6.1 / 7.4	0.0% / 0.0%	38.7% / 37.0%	20.9 / 24.0
4	OAK	24 – 31 L	-10.8	34.8% / 43.8%	0.0% / 3.1%	2.2% / 0.0%	5.8 / 5.9	47.8% / 46.9%	34.8% / 21.9%	3.5 / 5.9	69 / 64	36.7% / 46.0%	39.1% / 45.3%	45.7% / 38.5%	5.0 / 5.9	1.4% / 1.6%	33.3% / 50.0%	28.7 / 23.5
5	@KC	19 – 13 W	1.9	48.3% / 39.5%	0.0% / 9.3%	3.4% / 0.0%	5.2 / 6.7	68.9% / 42.9%	11.1% / 35.7%	4.0 / 2.6	74 / 57	67.9% / 42.9%	60.8% / 40.4%	22.4% / 53.1%	4.5 / 5.7	0.0% / 1.8%	60.8% / 24.6%	32.0 / 25.1
7	HOU	30 – 23 W	6.0	46.3% / 54.1%	2.4% / 8.1%	0.0% / 5.9%	7.8 / 7.9	26.9% / 50.0%	38.5% / 33.3%	2.4 / 4.2	67 / 61	37.5% / 58.7%	38.8% / 52.5%	42.0% / 40.4%	5.7 / 6.4	1.5% / 0.0%	38.8% / 39.3%	25.9 / 31.7
8	DEN	15 – 13 W	-2.8	44.8% / 28.6%	13.8% / 8.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.6 / 4.7	58.1% / 50.0%	29.0% / 21.4%	4.1 / 4.0	60 / 63	57.4% / 43.1%	51.7% / 38.1%	32.7% / 39.4%	5.3 / 4.4	1.7% / 0.0%	51.7% / 44.4%	21.9 / 28.9
9	@PIT	24 – 26 L	0.9	44.4% / 38.9%	13.9% / 2.8%	3.2% / 2.9%	5.3 / 5.1	51.7% / 32.0%	24.1% / 36.0%	4.8 / 3.6	65 / 61	50.0% / 37.8%	47.7% / 36.1%	28.7% / 31.1%	5.0 / 4.5	3.1% / 1.6%	44.6% / 41.0%	35.8 / 30.2
10	MIA	12 – 16 L	-4.1	37.5% / 36.1%	2.5% / 8.3%	7.7% / 3.0%	4.8 / 4.4	41.4% / 26.9%	31.0% / 38.5%	3.8 / 2.7	69 / 62	41.5% / 30.2%	39.1% / 32.3%	55.0% / 22.7%	4.3 / 3.7	0.0% / 1.6%	42.0% / 41.9%	32.5 / 33.4
11	JAC	33 – 13 W	7.1	40.7% / 42.9%	11.1% / 4.1%	4.2% / 2.1%	4.6 / 5.7	58.3% / 33.3%	8.3% / 33.3%	7.3 / 3.2	63 / 58	56.3% / 41.9%	50.8% / 41.4%	52.7% / 28.6%	6.2 / 5.3	1.6% / 0.0%	57.1% / 15.5%	24.0 / 30.3
12	@HOU	17 – 20 L	-0.4	46.2% / 48.4%	3.8% / 3.2%	0.0% / 3.3%	4.7 / 9.6	53.8% / 45.8%	10.3% / 41.7%	4.5 / 4.1	65 / 55	50.0% / 48.8%	50.8% / 47.3%	17.9% / 59.6%	4.6 / 7.2	0.0% / 0.0%	60.0% / 43.6%	25.2 / 26.6
13	TEN	17 – 31 L	1.1	48.8% / 39.3%	7.0% / 21.4%	5.0% / 0.0%	7.2 / 4.9	37.5% / 50.0%	25.0% / 10.0%	3.4 / 5.1	67 / 58	46.3% / 47.6%	44.8% / 44.8%	36.3% / 41.8%	5.8 / 5.0	1.5% / 3.4%	35.8% / 51.7%	27.5 / 32.8
14	@TB	35 – 38 L	4.4	29.7% / 62.0%	2.7% / 2.0%	0.0% / 6.1%	6.6 / 9.3	45.5% / 35.7%	31.8% / 10.7%	3.0 / 2.7	59 / 78	32.5% / 53.3%	35.6% / 52.6%	47.2% / 42.1%	5.2 / 6.9	1.7% / 1.3%	37.3% / 35.9%	35.8 / 27.5
15	@NO	7 – 34 L	-18.0	37.1% / 76.7%	2.9% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.5 / 10.2	35.3% / 48.5%	23.5% / 12.1%	2.7 / 3.5	52 / 63	39.5% / 65.4%	36.5% / 61.9%	32.2% / 36.3%	3.9 / 6.7	0.0% / 0.0%	32.7% / 52.4%	22.0 / 30.3
16	CAR	38 – 6 W	16.9	33.3% / 40.0%	10.0% / 10.0%	0.0% / 6.7%	3.5 / 4.0	65.6% / 52.4%	6.3% / 14.3%	6.8 / 4.1	62 / 71	55.3% / 47.2%	50.0% / 43.7%	49.1% / 18.5%	5.2 / 4.0	0.0% / 0.0%	51.6% / 29.6%	25.7 / 22.1

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	KC	26 – 40 L	-11.7	52.9% / 58.8%	2.9% / 0.0%	3.0% / 0.0%	10.2 / 11.1	43.8% / 57.7%	12.5% / 26.9%	5.1 / 4.3	50 / 60	50.0% / 62.5%	50.0% / 58.3%	55.4% / 62.3%	8.6 / 8.2	2.0% / 0.0%	32.0% / 43.3%	23.8 / 38.4
2	@HOU	12 – 13 L	-3.3	40.5% / 36.4%	10.8% / 12.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.8 / 4.2	42.9% / 56.7%	14.3% / 16.7%	4.9 / 4.2	58 / 63	44.2% / 46.8%	41.4% / 46.0%	40.6% / 35.0%	4.8 / 4.2	1.7% / 0.0%	36.2% / 47.6%	26.0 / 26.8
3	TEN	20 – 7 W	13.0	43.3% / 30.6%	0.0% / 18.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.8 / 5.1	15.0% / 53.8%	45.0% / 19.2%	4.4 / 3.5	50 / 75	37.8% / 36.8%	32.0% / 38.7%	56.8% / 57.1%	5.8 / 4.5	0.0% / 1.3%	40.0% / 34.7%	25.7 / 28.9
4	@DEN	26 – 24 W	-5.0	36.8% / 52.6%	13.2% / 0.0%	0.0% / 2.6%	4.9 / 8.0	50.0% / 43.8%	10.5% / 12.5%	7.1 / 4.3	76 / 54	45.9% / 54.8%	43.4% / 50.0%	52.1% / 52.3%	6.0 / 6.9	0.0% / 0.0%	50.0% / 29.6%	24.0 / 27.0
5	@CAR	27 – 34 L	-5.8	52.2% / 44.1%	4.3% / 8.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.8 / 4.7	45.2% / 55.6%	25.8% / 18.5%	4.8 / 10.6	77 / 61	50.8% / 54.2%	49.4% / 49.2%	57.8% / 63.8%	6.6 / 7.3	3.9% / 0.0%	40.3% / 44.3%	22.9 / 28.8
6	NO	6 – 13 L	-2.4	38.7% / 48.7%	6.5% / 7.7%	3.4% / 0.0%	4.9 / 5.7	25.0% / 65.4%	16.7% / 19.2%	3.1 / 4.0	55 / 65	35.0% / 62.0%	32.7% / 55.4%	35.8% / 36.5%	4.1 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	43.6% / 40.0%	18.1 / 32.1
7	@CIN	27 – 17 W	2.4	38.2% / 37.8%	5.9% / 4.4%	0.0% / 7.0%	7.2 / 5.7	52.3% / 30.0%	25.0% / 50.0%	4.9 / 1.7	78 / 65	53.4% / 34.0%	46.2% / 35.4%	66.7% / 53.6%	5.9 / 4.5	0.0% / 1.5%	56.4% / 30.8%	28.6 / 29.1
8	NYJ	29 – 15 W	8.5	50.0% / 44.7%	5.6% / 21.1%	0.0% / 10.0%	7.7 / 4.4	17.6% / 46.7%	44.1% / 26.7%	3.3 / 3.1	70 / 53	32.0% / 51.2%	34.3% / 45.3%	55.3% / 39.0%	5.6 / 4.0	1.4% / 0.0%	48.6% / 28.3%	36.9 / 26.5
9	HOU	3 – 26 L	-8.4	39.2% / 62.1%	7.8% / 3.4%	4.3% / 0.0%	5.5 / 6.7	60.0% / 50.0%	6.7% / 20.6%	4.9 / 6.4	66 / 63	47.2% / 58.8%	43.9% / 55.6%	35.4% / 42.0%	5.4 / 6.5	3.0% / 1.6%	22.7% / 54.0%	24.0 / 35.0
11	@IND	13 – 33 L	-7.1	42.9% / 40.7%	4.1% / 11.1%	2.1% / 4.2%	5.7 / 4.6	33.3% / 58.3%	33.3% / 8.3%	3.2 / 7.3	58 / 63	41.9% / 56.3%	41.4% / 50.8%	28.6% / 52.7%	5.3 / 6.2	0.0% / 1.6%	15.5% / 57.1%	30.3 / 24.0
12	@TEN	20 – 42 L	-12.2	43.1% / 73.7%	5.9% / 5.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.9 / 13.3	44.4% / 48.5%	7.4% / 18.2%	4.3 / 6.6	78 / 52	45.6% / 65.0%	43.6% / 57.7%	30.9% / 67.7%	4.7 / 9.1	1.3% / 3.8%	34.6% / 63.5%	23.0 / 32.6
13	TB	11 – 28 L	-16.8	23.9% / 43.2%	10.9% / 10.8%	4.9% / 0.0%	4.2 / 6.5	41.2% / 29.0%	29.4% / 45.2%	2.9 / 2.4	63 / 68	28.3% / 34.7%	28.6% / 36.8%	40.9% / 61.0%	3.8 / 4.6	3.2% / 1.5%	27.0% / 45.6%	28.7 / 37.4
14	LAC	10 – 45 L	-17.4	35.0% / 57.1%	5.0% / 3.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.1 / 11.8	56.5% / 63.3%	13.0% / 10.0%	3.8 / 6.5	63 / 58	47.7% / 60.4%	42.9% / 60.3%	17.1% / 62.7%	4.0 / 9.1	0.0% / 0.0%	36.5% / 51.7%	22.7 / 26.6
15	@OAK	20 – 16 W	-8.2	41.9% / 45.0%	6.5% / 10.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.0 / 5.9	40.9% / 53.1%	27.3% / 18.8%	3.5 / 4.0	53 / 72	45.0% / 50.8%	41.5% / 48.6%	51.5% / 38.5%	4.9 / 5.1	0.0% / 0.0%	41.5% / 44.4%	22.3 / 25.6
16	@ATL	12 – 24 L	-12.4	31.4% / 56.5%	8.6% / 2.2%	0.0% / 4.4%	4.9 / 8.3	45.8% / 40.7%	8.3% / 14.8%	4.8 / 5.0	59 / 73	40.0% / 51.7%	37.3% / 50.7%	43.4% / 43.4%	4.9 / 7.1	1.7% / 0.0%	40.7% / 37.0%	20.4 / 26.1

Indianapolis Colts @

Jacksonville Jaguars

Sun, Dec 29

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis