Game Analysis
Indianapolis (-4) vs JACKSONVILLE
Jacksonville made some major changes on offense this week with the firing of coordinator Nathaniel Hackett and the benching of quarterback Blake Bortles. Hackett was consistently one of the most predictable and conservative play callers in the league and the Jaguars will almost certainly be better off without him and overrated running back Leonard Fournette, who is suspended for this game. New quarterback Cody Kessler is gaining just 5.2 yards per pass play in his career and looked terrible in week 7 when Bortles was benched the first time. Kessler will get a full week of first-team reps for this game, but our metrics show he’s likely to be at least a point worse than Bortles, whose numbers are not actually much different from last season. The Jaguars will be without both starting guards, Brandon Linder and Andrew Norwell, and left tackle Ereck Flowers has little chance of staying in front of Colts’ pass-rusher Kemoko Turray, who’s having a great rookie season – ranking 8th in pass rush efficiency and recording a 31.7% pressure rate on 3rd-and-long situations. On the whole, we’re expecting Jacksonville’s offense to play about 2 points worse than their season-to-date performance.
The Colts use 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs) at the 2nd-lowest rate in the league and such teams have typically been an Achilles heel for the Jaguars defense. I expect Indianapolis to move the ball effectively on Sunday, as they did in a 29-26 home win over the Jags a few weeks ago. Andrew Luck likes to throw to his tight ends – targeting a TE on 28% of passes (4th-most) – and they will look for Eric Ebron often with fellow TE Jack Doyle. Ebron should have a big games against a Jags defense that is weakest against opposing tight ends, conceding 8.1 yards per target (20th). Making matters worse for the Jags is not having safety Tashaun Gipson at 100%, as Gipson has not been practicing this week due to an an ankle injury. Colts’ big-play receiver T.Y. Hilton has 280 receiving yards the last two weeks and he may catch a break as Jaguars’ head coach Doug Marrone is not optimistic that All-Pro CB Jalen Ramsey will be available. Luck should have enough time to look downfield for Hilton or find Ebron in the middle of the field, as the Colts offensive line ranks 2nd in pass blocking efficiency since left tackle Anthony Castonzo started playing in week 6. Castonzo should make it tough for All-Pro Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue, who is 4th in pass rush efficiency, to put pressure on Luck. Our model favors the Colts by 6.4-points and the match-ups are favorable. However, Jacksonville applies to a 73-28-1 ATS contrary situation and an 89-35-1 ATS division home revenge situation. I’ll pass on this one, although those of you in pools are probably better off trusting the math model and selecting the Colts.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
40.8
35.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
55.2%
53.4%
-
Sack Rate
2.5%
7.2%
-
Int Rate
2.6%
2.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.7%
14.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
32.7%
33.2%
-
NYPP
7.1
6.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.6
27.3
-
RB YPR
3.7
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
20.6%
28.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.6%
45.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
35.6%
46.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
3.9
Game
-
All Snaps
66.4
62.8
-
Early Down Succ
52.8%
50.9%
-
Succ Rate
51.1%
49.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
34.9%
37.1%
-
Yards Per Play
5.8
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
1.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.6
30.1
-
Run Ratio
39.1%
43.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.6
27.7
-
Game Control
2.1
-2.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.7
32.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.7%
46.5%
-
Sack Rate
8.7%
5.8%
-
Int Rate
2.7%
2.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.3%
18.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
37.5%
37.3%
-
NYPP
5.9
6.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.6
28.0
-
RB YPR
3.5
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
20.4%
23.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
47.5%
37.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
32.3%
42.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
4.0
Game
-
All Snaps
63.3
60.6
-
Early Down Succ
48.1%
45.3%
-
Succ Rate
47.9%
42.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
36.0%
41.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.2
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.6%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.9
29.2
-
Run Ratio
41.8%
46.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.5
29.4
-
Game Control
-3.0
3.0
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
CIN |
23 – 34 L |
3.1 |
56.4% /
60.0% |
3.6% /
6.7% |
1.9% /
3.6% |
5.5 /
7.6 |
54.5% /
65.0% |
22.7% /
20.0% |
3.4 /
5.1 |
77 /
50 |
53.3% /
64.3% |
55.8% /
62.0% |
10.0% /
38.8% |
4.9 /
6.6 |
1.3% /
2.0% |
28.6% /
40.0% |
33.4 /
26.2 |
| 2 |
@WAS |
21 – 9 W |
8.3 |
43.8% /
48.9% |
3.1% /
6.4% |
6.5% /
0.0% |
5.5 /
5.7 |
40.0% /
40.9% |
13.3% /
40.9% |
3.5 /
3.0 |
62 /
69 |
40.5% /
50.0% |
41.9% /
46.4% |
25.4% /
28.1% |
4.6 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
48.4% /
31.9% |
24.7 /
29.3 |
| 3 |
@PHI |
16 – 20 L |
-0.6 |
39.5% /
47.6% |
4.7% /
11.9% |
0.0% /
2.7% |
3.3 /
5.4 |
38.5% /
60.0% |
23.1% /
28.6% |
5.2 /
4.3 |
56 /
77 |
45.2% /
55.6% |
39.3% /
53.2% |
46.9% /
34.0% |
3.7 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
23.2% /
45.5% |
36.1 /
21.6 |
| 4 |
HOU |
34 – 37 L |
-6.7 |
48.5% /
55.3% |
6.1% /
14.9% |
0.0% /
2.5% |
6.6 /
7.4 |
41.2% /
42.9% |
41.2% /
28.6% |
2.4 /
3.4 |
83 /
82 |
44.6% /
49.2% |
47.0% /
50.0% |
26.6% /
37.1% |
5.8 /
5.7 |
2.4% /
0.0% |
20.5% /
42.7% |
24.1 /
33.4 |
| 5 |
@NE |
24 – 38 L |
-12.6 |
76.9% /
88.2% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
5.3% /
5.9% |
9.1 /
10.0 |
47.6% /
44.0% |
4.8% /
20.0% |
4.0 /
4.0 |
60 /
59 |
49.2% /
65.5% |
66.7% /
69.5% |
28.7% /
26.8% |
7.3 /
7.5 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
35.0% /
42.4% |
27.9 /
35.5 |
| 6 |
@NYJ |
34 – 42 L |
-6.3 |
46.5% /
67.7% |
0.0% /
6.5% |
7.0% /
3.4% |
7.0 /
8.6 |
60.9% /
23.1% |
17.4% /
28.2% |
5.5 /
2.8 |
66 /
70 |
54.7% /
48.0% |
51.5% /
42.9% |
32.5% /
41.9% |
6.5 /
5.4 |
1.5% /
1.4% |
34.8% /
55.7% |
32.7 /
40.5 |
| 7 |
BUF |
37 – 5 W |
16.0 |
56.5% /
39.4% |
0.0% /
6.1% |
0.0% /
9.7% |
6.8 /
5.1 |
43.9% /
50.0% |
14.6% /
31.8% |
5.5 /
6.1 |
64 /
55 |
53.5% /
48.9% |
48.4% /
43.6% |
53.2% /
39.9% |
5.9 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
3.6% |
64.1% /
40.0% |
36.3 /
22.8 |
| 8 |
@OAK |
42 – 28 W |
1.5 |
61.3% /
57.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.7 /
8.7 |
66.7% /
55.0% |
11.9% /
15.0% |
5.3 /
5.2 |
73 /
48 |
66.7% /
61.1% |
64.4% /
56.3% |
36.3% /
47.4% |
6.3 /
7.3 |
0.0% /
2.1% |
57.5% /
41.7% |
35.6 /
26.1 |
| 10 |
JAC |
29 – 26 W |
7.6 |
55.2% /
56.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
3.4% /
0.0% |
9.8 /
8.3 |
32.0% /
50.0% |
32.0% /
32.4% |
3.4 /
2.7 |
54 /
73 |
47.4% /
50.9% |
44.4% /
53.4% |
60.4% /
37.3% |
6.8 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
46.3% /
46.6% |
24.1 /
31.0 |
| 11 |
TEN |
38 – 10 W |
18.5 |
71.9% /
47.1% |
0.0% /
14.7% |
0.0% /
6.9% |
9.2 /
5.2 |
51.6% /
36.0% |
16.1% /
32.0% |
3.4 /
3.5 |
63 /
59 |
70.8% /
42.2% |
61.9% /
42.4% |
26.5% /
33.8% |
6.3 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.2% /
42.4% |
29.7 /
21.1 |
| 12 |
MIA |
27 – 24 W |
-2.2 |
61.5% /
42.3% |
2.6% /
3.8% |
5.3% /
0.0% |
8.6 /
7.7 |
53.8% /
42.3% |
19.2% /
26.9% |
4.5 /
4.4 |
65 /
52 |
62.7% /
46.2% |
58.5% /
42.3% |
46.6% /
55.6% |
7.0 /
6.1 |
1.5% /
1.9% |
40.0% /
50.0% |
24.4 /
28.8 |
| 13 |
@JAC |
0 – 6 L |
-2.3 |
41.8% /
44.4% |
5.5% /
11.1% |
1.9% /
0.0% |
4.1 /
4.9 |
18.8% /
33.3% |
25.0% /
33.3% |
2.6 /
2.9 |
71 /
54 |
42.0% /
38.5% |
36.6% /
38.9% |
11.7% /
16.1% |
3.7 /
3.9 |
1.4% /
1.9% |
22.5% /
50.0% |
31.0 /
21.9 |
| 14 |
@HOU |
24 – 21 W |
3.4 |
58.1% /
39.5% |
4.7% /
11.6% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
9.0 /
5.3 |
30.8% /
44.0% |
26.9% /
28.0% |
2.0 /
3.6 |
69 /
68 |
55.8% /
41.2% |
47.8% /
41.2% |
49.0% /
45.1% |
6.4 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.7% /
36.8% |
25.3 /
22.3 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@NYG |
20 – 15 W |
3.9 |
44.1% /
28.2% |
2.9% /
5.1% |
3.0% /
2.7% |
4.9 /
5.4 |
36.7% /
34.8% |
16.7% /
30.4% |
4.6 /
5.0 |
64 /
62 |
46.8% /
31.9% |
40.6% /
30.6% |
38.8% /
38.0% |
4.8 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
46.9% /
37.1% |
31.5 /
25.3 |
| 2 |
NE |
31 – 20 W |
13.1 |
57.8% /
48.6% |
0.0% /
5.4% |
2.2% /
0.0% |
8.4 /
5.9 |
36.0% /
36.0% |
16.0% /
12.0% |
4.2 /
3.3 |
70 /
62 |
46.3% /
47.9% |
50.0% /
43.5% |
42.7% /
38.3% |
6.9 /
4.9 |
1.4% /
1.6% |
35.7% /
40.3% |
25.7 /
30.1 |
| 3 |
TEN |
6 – 9 L |
-1.5 |
37.8% /
45.8% |
8.1% /
12.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
3.9 /
3.5 |
52.6% /
42.9% |
15.8% /
25.7% |
4.6 /
4.3 |
56 /
59 |
46.3% /
47.7% |
42.9% /
44.1% |
10.3% /
34.3% |
4.1 /
3.9 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
33.9% /
59.3% |
23.3 /
28.2 |
| 4 |
NYJ |
31 – 12 W |
10.3 |
57.5% /
32.4% |
5.0% /
8.1% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
9.4 /
3.9 |
38.2% /
28.6% |
20.6% /
35.7% |
3.7 /
2.4 |
74 /
51 |
50.0% /
35.1% |
48.6% /
31.4% |
50.5% /
23.6% |
6.8 /
3.5 |
2.7% /
0.0% |
45.9% /
27.5% |
26.8 /
29.8 |
| 5 |
@KC |
14 – 30 L |
-14.4 |
73.7% /
87.0% |
13.2% /
4.3% |
12.1% /
9.1% |
10.6 /
13.0 |
70.6% /
28.1% |
5.9% /
25.0% |
5.9 /
4.0 |
55 /
55 |
48.4% /
45.5% |
72.7% /
52.7% |
49.8% /
49.3% |
9.1 /
7.7 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
30.9% /
58.2% |
28.3 /
21.3 |
| 6 |
@DAL |
7 – 40 L |
-18.5 |
48.3% /
36.7% |
10.3% /
10.0% |
3.8% /
0.0% |
4.8 /
5.7 |
38.9% /
45.2% |
16.7% /
23.8% |
3.6 /
4.9 |
47 /
72 |
48.6% /
39.6% |
44.7% /
41.7% |
32.4% /
45.0% |
4.3 /
5.3 |
2.1% /
0.0% |
38.3% /
58.3% |
26.4 /
37.8 |
| 7 |
HOU |
7 – 20 L |
-12.6 |
45.7% /
36.0% |
8.7% /
4.0% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
4.1 /
5.2 |
31.8% /
51.3% |
27.3% /
12.8% |
3.2 /
3.7 |
68 /
64 |
41.7% /
47.7% |
41.2% /
45.3% |
13.1% /
21.2% |
3.8 /
4.3 |
2.9% /
0.0% |
32.4% /
60.9% |
20.0 /
36.3 |
| 8 |
PHI |
18 – 24 L |
-2.2 |
44.4% /
52.9% |
8.9% /
11.8% |
0.0% /
3.3% |
5.9 /
7.7 |
64.7% /
41.9% |
17.6% /
12.9% |
4.1 /
4.4 |
62 /
65 |
52.2% /
50.0% |
50.0% /
47.7% |
34.3% /
62.6% |
5.4 /
6.1 |
1.6% /
1.5% |
27.4% /
47.7% |
29.0 /
26.9 |
| 10 |
@IND |
26 – 29 L |
-7.6 |
56.4% /
55.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
3.4% |
8.3 /
9.8 |
50.0% /
32.0% |
32.4% /
32.0% |
2.7 /
3.4 |
73 /
54 |
50.9% /
47.4% |
53.4% /
44.4% |
37.3% /
60.4% |
5.7 /
6.8 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
46.6% /
46.3% |
31.0 /
24.1 |
| 11 |
PIT |
16 – 20 L |
6.1 |
25.0% /
46.8% |
25.0% /
4.3% |
0.0% /
6.7% |
2.7 /
6.3 |
53.5% /
36.4% |
20.9% /
27.3% |
4.2 /
2.4 |
67 /
58 |
46.9% /
51.1% |
43.3% /
44.8% |
44.9% /
49.2% |
3.6 /
5.6 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
64.2% /
19.0% |
32.1 /
26.2 |
| 12 |
@BUF |
21 – 24 L |
-4.4 |
42.3% /
36.8% |
11.5% /
0.0% |
8.7% /
0.0% |
4.1 /
8.4 |
53.8% /
45.9% |
23.1% /
16.2% |
5.8 /
4.6 |
65 /
56 |
51.9% /
52.4% |
49.2% /
42.9% |
62.8% /
50.5% |
5.1 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
60.0% /
66.1% |
24.6 /
31.5 |
| 13 |
IND |
6 – 0 W |
2.3 |
44.4% /
41.8% |
11.1% /
5.5% |
0.0% /
1.9% |
4.9 /
4.1 |
33.3% /
18.8% |
33.3% /
25.0% |
2.9 /
2.6 |
54 /
71 |
38.5% /
42.0% |
38.9% /
36.6% |
16.1% /
11.7% |
3.9 /
3.7 |
1.9% /
1.4% |
50.0% /
22.5% |
21.9 /
31.0 |
| 14 |
@TEN |
9 – 30 L |
-13.6 |
42.6% /
56.0% |
8.5% /
4.0% |
0.0% /
4.2% |
4.1 /
6.5 |
57.1% /
44.1% |
19.0% /
26.5% |
2.9 /
7.8 |
68 /
59 |
57.1% /
51.2% |
47.1% /
49.2% |
34.8% /
60.7% |
3.8 /
7.3 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
30.9% /
57.6% |
24.3 /
33.5 |
Indianapolis Colts
@ 
Jacksonville Jaguars