Game Analysis
Lean – Under (41) – JACKSONVILLE (-9.5) vs Indianapolis
Jacksonville’s mid-season acquisition of Marcell Dareus may prove to be one of the most impactful of the year with their run defense improving from 30th without him to 9th since the trade according to my metrics. The Colts prefer to run the ball but I rank the Indianapolis rush offense at 27th in the league and I do not expect them to have success on the ground. That will leave it up to quarterback Jacoby Brissett to carry the offensive load for the Colts but that poses a problem against a Jacksonville defense with the best sack rate in the league, as the Colts have the worst sack rate allowed in the NFL. In the first meeting between these two teams, the Jaguars sacked Jacoby Brissett 10 times, and I expect Jacksonville to have no trouble pressuring the quarterback again on Sunday.
However, Jacksonville may not completely run away with this game because Jags’ quarterback Blake Bortles is not ideally suited to take advantage of a Colts’ defense ranked 30th against the pass. The Jaguars are the only team in the league to call more run plays than passes this season and the strength of the Colts’ defense, if you want to call it that, is their run defense (4.0 ypr allowed).
Neither team matches up well with the other team’s defense in this game and my model projects only 38.9 points even without fully taking those negative match-ups into account.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.2
35.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
39.5%
47.9%
-
Sack Rate
11.7%
4.8%
-
Int Rate
2.3%
2.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.9%
23.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
43.9%
49.2%
-
NYPP
5.9
7.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.6
29.0
-
RB YPR
3.4
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
23.3%
23.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.6%
38.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
36.4%
43.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.5
3.8
Game
-
All Snaps
62.8
64.6
-
Early Down Succ
41.8%
44.3%
-
Succ Rate
39.9%
42.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
41.9%
48.3%
-
Yards Per Play
4.7
5.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.1
28.5
-
Run Ratio
44.1%
45.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.4
27.2
-
Game Control
-1.3
1.3
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.5
36.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
42.8%
37.3%
-
Sack Rate
5.2%
10.0%
-
Int Rate
2.3%
3.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.9%
21.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
29.5%
42.6%
-
NYPP
5.9
4.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
34.5
26.6
-
RB YPR
4.1
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
22.3%
23.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.9%
47.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
46.8%
32.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.6
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
68.1
62.9
-
Early Down Succ
44.5%
46.5%
-
Succ Rate
42.1%
41.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.1%
41.0%
-
Yards Per Play
5.2
4.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
1.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.9
27.6
-
Run Ratio
51.1%
42.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.1
27.5
-
Game Control
4.5
-4.5
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@LA |
9 – 46 L |
-21.3 |
28.0% / 54.8% |
16.0% / 3.2% |
9.5% / 0.0% |
6.0 / 10.0 |
32.0% / 22.5% |
28.0% / 22.5% |
3.0 / 1.7 |
50 / 71 |
40.5% / 43.5% |
30.0% / 36.6% |
81.4% / 52.7% |
4.5 / 5.3 |
2.0% / 1.4% |
50.0% / 56.3% |
23.1 / 35.8 |
2 |
ARI |
13 – 16 L |
6.3 |
41.5% / 40.0% |
9.8% / 10.0% |
2.7% / 2.8% |
4.6 / 7.7 |
34.5% / 34.6% |
24.1% / 11.5% |
2.6 / 3.2 |
70 / 66 |
36.5% / 39.6% |
38.6% / 37.9% |
16.5% / 63.6% |
3.8 / 5.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
41.4% / 39.4% |
24.5 / 29.6 |
3 |
CLE |
31 – 28 W |
9.2 |
33.3% / 35.4% |
11.1% / 2.1% |
0.0% / 6.4% |
9.0 / 4.9 |
27.0% / 57.1% |
37.8% / 19.0% |
2.5 / 5.3 |
64 / 69 |
24.4% / 42.9% |
29.7% / 42.0% |
63.7% / 53.8% |
5.3 / 5.0 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
57.8% / 30.4% |
29.6 / 28.9 |
4 |
@SEA |
18 – 46 L |
-7.0 |
37.5% / 65.5% |
9.4% / 10.3% |
3.4% / 7.7% |
4.3 / 9.8 |
52.0% / 42.4% |
8.0% / 24.2% |
3.9 / 5.9 |
57 / 62 |
44.2% / 47.8% |
43.9% / 53.2% |
30.0% / 67.7% |
4.2 / 7.7 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
43.9% / 53.2% |
28.3 / 20.2 |
5 |
SF |
26 – 23 W |
3.3 |
44.7% / 50.0% |
10.5% / 4.2% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
7.6 / 7.0 |
32.4% / 31.8% |
32.4% / 31.8% |
4.4 / 3.0 |
75 / 70 |
38.2% / 46.3% |
38.7% / 44.3% |
58.1% / 37.3% |
6.0 / 5.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
49.3% / 31.4% |
28.8 / 17.5 |
6 |
@TEN |
22 – 36 L |
1.2 |
51.4% / 57.6% |
0.0% / 3.0% |
0.0% / 3.1% |
5.7 / 9.2 |
40.0% / 42.9% |
20.0% / 20.0% |
4.3 / 4.8 |
57 / 68 |
53.2% / 51.9% |
47.4% / 50.0% |
22.6% / 42.2% |
5.2 / 7.0 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
35.1% / 51.5% |
26.5 / 27.4 |
7 |
JAC |
0 – 27 L |
-18.7 |
34.0% / 53.6% |
21.3% / 3.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
2.9 / 11.8 |
60.0% / 44.7% |
20.0% / 21.1% |
4.8 / 5.0 |
67 / 66 |
46.9% / 49.0% |
41.8% / 48.5% |
41.4% / 61.8% |
3.5 / 7.9 |
0.0% / 3.0% |
29.9% / 57.6% |
28.0 / 20.1 |
8 |
@CIN |
23 – 24 L |
0.5 |
39.5% / 43.8% |
9.3% / 9.4% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
5.0 / 6.8 |
60.7% / 30.4% |
10.7% / 30.4% |
4.1 / 2.6 |
71 / 55 |
48.1% / 40.0% |
47.9% / 38.2% |
18.1% / 46.0% |
4.7 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 3.6% |
39.4% / 41.8% |
31.4 / 32.7 |
9 |
@HOU |
20 – 14 W |
6.3 |
45.5% / 28.3% |
9.1% / 4.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.5 / 4.2 |
44.8% / 38.1% |
20.7% / 14.3% |
3.2 / 4.5 |
62 / 67 |
51.1% / 32.7% |
45.2% / 31.3% |
55.6% / 31.6% |
6.0 / 4.3 |
1.6% / 1.5% |
46.8% / 31.3% |
19.1 / 24.2 |
10 |
PIT |
17 – 20 L |
5.1 |
40.7% / 50.0% |
11.1% / 3.1% |
4.2% / 3.2% |
7.3 / 7.1 |
36.7% / 36.7% |
33.3% / 36.7% |
2.4 / 2.9 |
57 / 62 |
40.0% / 44.9% |
38.6% / 43.5% |
45.1% / 38.9% |
4.7 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
52.6% / 48.4% |
21.6 / 31.7 |
12 |
TEN |
16 – 20 L |
0.5 |
37.8% / 48.0% |
21.6% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 8.0% |
4.5 / 7.4 |
37.5% / 40.0% |
20.8% / 26.7% |
3.7 / 3.1 |
61 / 55 |
36.2% / 48.8% |
37.7% / 43.6% |
28.3% / 35.6% |
4.2 / 5.1 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
39.3% / 54.5% |
29.8 / 31.1 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@HOU |
30 – 7 W |
11.9 |
52.4% / 34.8% |
0.0% / 21.7% |
0.0% / 2.8% |
6.0 / 2.4 |
41.5% / 60.9% |
17.1% / 17.4% |
3.8 / 4.0 |
62 / 69 |
53.3% / 44.6% |
45.2% / 43.5% |
32.6% / 12.8% |
4.5 / 2.9 |
0.0% / 4.3% |
66.1% / 33.3% |
38.2 / 26.5 |
2 |
TEN |
16 – 37 L |
-7.9 |
41.7% / 42.9% |
5.6% / 3.6% |
5.9% / 3.7% |
5.9 / 7.5 |
64.0% / 68.4% |
12.0% / 10.5% |
4.0 / 4.8 |
61 / 66 |
52.1% / 64.0% |
50.8% / 57.6% |
23.5% / 41.6% |
5.1 / 5.9 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
41.0% / 57.6% |
23.4 / 39.9 |
3 |
BAL |
44 – 7 W |
23.9 |
54.5% / 24.1% |
0.0% / 6.9% |
0.0% / 7.4% |
7.4 / 1.8 |
31.6% / 56.0% |
10.5% / 20.0% |
4.4 / 5.4 |
71 / 54 |
48.1% / 42.9% |
42.3% / 38.9% |
35.8% / 39.2% |
5.8 / 3.4 |
0.0% / 1.9% |
53.5% / 46.3% |
38.5 / 24.1 |
4 |
@NYJ |
20 – 23 L |
-2.3 |
30.6% / 44.4% |
2.8% / 13.9% |
2.9% / 3.2% |
3.8 / 6.0 |
57.5% / 31.3% |
20.0% / 43.8% |
4.4 / 8.0 |
76 / 68 |
50.8% / 37.3% |
44.7% / 38.2% |
27.6% / 68.6% |
4.1 / 6.9 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
52.6% / 47.1% |
27.0 / 29.5 |
5 |
@PIT |
30 – 9 W |
4.5 |
37.5% / 42.9% |
12.5% / 3.6% |
7.1% / 9.3% |
5.1 / 5.4 |
40.5% / 40.0% |
24.3% / 35.0% |
6.2 / 3.5 |
53 / 76 |
36.6% / 41.0% |
39.6% / 42.1% |
60.1% / 44.5% |
5.9 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
69.8% / 26.3% |
26.4 / 21.8 |
6 |
LA |
17 – 27 L |
-5.1 |
37.5% / 37.5% |
12.5% / 12.5% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
5.5 / 4.5 |
42.3% / 64.7% |
30.8% / 20.6% |
6.5 / 4.2 |
66 / 58 |
42.0% / 65.9% |
39.4% / 53.4% |
54.2% / 35.5% |
5.9 / 4.3 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
39.4% / 58.6% |
25.3 / 30.5 |
7 |
@IND |
27 – 0 W |
18.7 |
53.6% / 34.0% |
3.6% / 21.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
11.8 / 2.9 |
44.7% / 60.0% |
21.1% / 20.0% |
5.0 / 4.8 |
66 / 67 |
49.0% / 46.9% |
48.5% / 41.8% |
61.8% / 41.4% |
7.9 / 3.5 |
3.0% / 0.0% |
57.6% / 29.9% |
20.1 / 28.0 |
9 |
CIN |
23 – 7 W |
7.2 |
55.3% / 30.0% |
0.0% / 10.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.8 / 6.0 |
41.5% / 15.8% |
12.2% / 21.1% |
3.7 / 1.6 |
79 / 39 |
44.1% / 29.6% |
48.1% / 23.1% |
32.8% / 52.7% |
5.2 / 3.8 |
1.3% / 0.0% |
51.9% / 48.7% |
21.1 / 20.2 |
10 |
LAC |
20 – 17 W |
-0.3 |
37.0% / 43.2% |
5.6% / 0.0% |
3.9% / 2.7% |
4.9 / 6.4 |
29.6% / 48.4% |
29.6% / 25.8% |
5.0 / 2.8 |
81 / 68 |
36.1% / 54.9% |
34.6% / 45.6% |
34.7% / 38.4% |
4.9 / 4.8 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
33.3% / 45.6% |
30.7 / 21.1 |
11 |
@CLE |
19 – 7 W |
3.9 |
31.3% / 32.4% |
6.3% / 13.5% |
0.0% / 6.3% |
4.5 / 3.6 |
31.1% / 36.8% |
35.6% / 26.3% |
3.1 / 2.7 |
77 / 56 |
32.1% / 40.0% |
31.2% / 33.9% |
24.2% / 42.2% |
3.7 / 3.3 |
1.3% / 5.4% |
58.4% / 33.9% |
33.0 / 30.4 |
12 |
@ARI |
24 – 27 L |
-5.2 |
40.0% / 43.6% |
8.6% / 2.6% |
3.1% / 2.6% |
3.7 / 6.1 |
36.4% / 40.6% |
31.8% / 21.9% |
4.1 / 3.4 |
57 / 71 |
45.5% / 44.2% |
38.6% / 42.3% |
31.5% / 33.9% |
3.8 / 4.9 |
3.5% / 1.4% |
38.6% / 45.1% |
25.5 / 30.9 |