Indianapolis Colts @

Jacksonville Jaguars

Sun, Dec 3
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 363
Odds: Jacksonville Jaguars -9.5, Total: 41

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

Lean – Under (41) – JACKSONVILLE (-9.5) vs Indianapolis

Jacksonville’s mid-season acquisition of Marcell Dareus may prove to be one of the most impactful of the year with their run defense improving from 30th without him to 9th since the trade according to my metrics. The Colts prefer to run the ball but I rank the Indianapolis rush offense at 27th in the league and I do not expect them to have success on the ground. That will leave it up to quarterback Jacoby Brissett to carry the offensive load for the Colts but that poses a problem against a Jacksonville defense with the best sack rate in the league, as the Colts have the worst sack rate allowed in the NFL. In the first meeting between these two teams, the Jaguars sacked Jacoby Brissett 10 times, and I expect Jacksonville to have no trouble pressuring the quarterback again on Sunday.

However, Jacksonville may not completely run away with this game because Jags’ quarterback Blake Bortles is not ideally suited to take advantage of a Colts’ defense ranked 30th against the pass. The Jaguars are the only team in the league to call more run plays than passes this season and the strength of the Colts’ defense, if you want to call it that, is their run defense (4.0 ypr allowed).

Neither team matches up well with the other team’s defense in this game and my model projects only 38.9 points even without fully taking those negative match-ups into account.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Colts
  • Jaguars
IND
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 35.2 35.6
  • Succ Pass Plays 39.5% 47.9%
  • Sack Rate 11.7% 4.8%
  • Int Rate 2.3% 2.8%
  • Deep Pass Rate 15.9% 23.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 43.9% 49.2%
  • NYPP 5.9 7.8



Rush


  • Rush Plays 27.6 29.0
  • RB YPR 3.4 3.7
  • Stuff Rate 23.3% 23.5%
  • Succ Rush Plays 41.6% 38.3%
  • Big Rush Yards 36.4% 43.1%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.5 3.8




Game

  • All Snaps 62.8 64.6
  • Early Down Succ 41.8% 44.3%
  • Succ Rate 39.9% 42.7%
  • Big Yards Rate 41.9% 48.3%
  • Yards Per Play 4.7 5.8
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 0.9%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.1 28.5
  • Run Ratio 44.1% 45.1%
  • Starting Field Pos 26.4 27.2
  • Game Control -1.3 1.3
 
  • Points 17.7 27.3
Share This