Game Analysis

HOUSTON (-10.5) vs Indianapolis

• Houston needs a win and a Jacksonville loss to win the AFC South and get the 3 seed in the AFC.
• Even if the Jaguars (who play at the same time) were to win their game, the Texans have an incentive to keep their position as the 5 seed, as it’s the difference between facing the AFC North winner compared to Denver, New England, or Jacksonville.
• Indianapolis has been eliminated and is starting Riley Leonard over Phillip Rivers. The Colts waiting until being officially out of the postseason and going through all the hoops to bring in Rivers implies that they think Leonard is notably worse than Rivers and didn’t want to give the rookie snaps until they were out of it. I agree, as Leonard was an average collegiate passer and only added value with his running (notice how much better the Notre Dame offense was this season without him).
• I have the Indianapolis offense rated 26th with Leonard just below offenses quarterbacked by fellow rookies Quinn Ewers and Cam Ward. The Colts are rated above the dregs of the NFL, like the Chiefs and Jets offenses.
• Leonard will go against a Houston defense allowing a league-low -0.11 EPA/play.
• Our model favors the Texans by 10.3 with a predicted total of 38.8 points. I just can’t get myself to trust Leonard against an elite defense so I used Houston in my spread pool.