Game Analysis
1-Star Best Bet – *Indianapolis (+7) over BUFFALO
Lean – Under 51
After dismantling the Dolphins last week, Josh Allen is now averaging 7.3 yards per pass play (5th) but I expect him to be held in check this Saturday – especially if one of his best receiving options is sidelined. Cole Beasley is dealing with a leg injury and I think there is a good chance he will miss this game, which would be worth nearly a point for Buffalo’s offense. Beasley is averaging 2.31 yards per route run in the slot this season, nearly a half yard per route more than Cooper Kupp, who ranks second (1.84). WR John Brown looks to be back healthy after missing five straight games due to an ankle injury. Brown ran a route on 89% of Allen’s dropbacks last week and will play alongside Stefon Diggs (5th in yards per route run), but both Bills wide receivers could be limited on Saturday by the Indianapolis cornerbacks. CB Rock Ya-Sin is dealing with a concussion but his availability shouldn’t affect the Colts. TJ Carrie is conceding 0.62 less yards per cover snap than Ya-Sin and the Indianapolis defense allowed just 6.1 yppp during the six games TJ Carrie played more than 50% of snaps. Xavier Rhodes is allowing a reception on just one out of every 14.6 cover snaps (7th). Allen will be under fire as LG Ike Boettger ranks 53rd out of 58 qualifying guards in pass blocking efficiency and he will not be able to stay in front of interior defender DeForest Buckner, who has 53 pressures (7th).
Buffalo’s rush defense ranks 26th and the Colts will likely feature their ground game while Philip Rivers should have some time in the pocket when he does drop back to pass. LG Quenton Nelson ranks 3rd in pass blocking efficiency and the Pro Bowler will limit Bills’ interior defender Ed Oliver. Indianapolis is without starting left tackle Anthony Castonzo but backup Jared Veldheer looked serviceable last Sunday, allowing just 2 pressures in 27 pass blocking snaps (we’re still valuing Castanzo at 0.9 points).
Our model favors the Bills by just 2.7 points, with a predicted total of 51.1 points. Indianapolis is a 1-Star Best Bet at +7 at -115 odds or better (Strong Opinion at +6 or +6.5 points). The lean under is based on the matchups that favor a lower scoring game than projected by the model.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.9
37.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
50.6%
48.9%
-
Sack Rate
3.6%
6.8%
-
Int Rate
1.9%
2.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.2%
18.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
37.6%
39.7%
-
NYPP
7.1
6.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.7
24.4
-
RB YPR
4.4
3.4
-
Stuff Rate
20.1%
22.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
47.9%
45.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
49.2%
32.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
3.5
Game
-
All Snaps
64.6
62.0
-
Early Down Succ
52.0%
50.5%
-
Succ Rate
49.2%
48.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.3%
37.6%
-
Yards Per Play
5.9
5.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.4%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.0
28.2
-
Run Ratio
44.3%
39.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.1
25.7
-
Game Control
2.7
-2.7
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.9
38.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
55.7%
47.6%
-
Sack Rate
4.4%
6.6%
-
Int Rate
2.0%
2.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.3%
12.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.8%
32.2%
-
NYPP
7.4
6.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.7
25.9
-
RB YPR
3.8
4.3
-
Stuff Rate
20.5%
21.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
49.6%
53.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
46.5%
42.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.1
4.4
Game
-
All Snaps
64.6
64.1
-
Early Down Succ
55.6%
52.5%
-
Succ Rate
53.6%
50.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
41.9%
37.1%
-
Yards Per Play
6.1
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.4
26.5
-
Run Ratio
40.2%
40.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.4
26.8
-
Game Control
6.4
-6.4
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@JAC |
20 – 27 L |
2.5 |
55.3% /
62.5% |
2.1% /
16.7% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
7.6 /
6.3 |
36.4% /
39.1% |
27.3% /
17.4% |
4.0 /
4.0 |
69 /
47 |
53.7% /
52.8% |
49.3% /
51.1% |
30.1% /
34.9% |
6.4 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.9% /
48.9% |
27.0 /
31.0 |
| 2 |
MIN |
28 – 11 W |
9.3 |
51.9% /
24.1% |
7.4% /
10.3% |
4.0% /
11.5% |
7.5 /
3.3 |
50.0% /
38.9% |
17.5% /
11.1% |
3.8 /
4.4 |
67 /
47 |
56.6% /
32.4% |
50.7% /
29.8% |
34.5% /
41.7% |
5.3 /
3.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
59.7% /
38.3% |
44.6 /
20.5 |
| 3 |
NYJ |
36 – 7 W |
12.6 |
64.0% /
41.9% |
0.0% /
6.5% |
0.0% /
10.3% |
9.4 /
4.9 |
25.8% /
41.4% |
12.9% /
17.2% |
3.8 /
3.8 |
56 /
60 |
46.5% /
46.8% |
42.9% /
41.7% |
45.6% /
26.9% |
6.3 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
55.4% /
48.3% |
33.6 /
18.4 |
| 4 |
@CHI |
19 – 11 W |
8.5 |
40.0% /
46.5% |
3.3% /
2.3% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
6.2 /
5.6 |
28.9% /
31.3% |
26.3% /
18.8% |
2.7 /
1.8 |
68 /
59 |
30.4% /
47.7% |
33.8% /
42.4% |
39.8% /
39.8% |
4.3 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
55.9% /
27.1% |
31.7 /
20.5 |
| 5 |
@CLE |
23 – 32 L |
-5.2 |
47.1% /
48.7% |
2.9% /
2.6% |
6.1% /
5.3% |
7.1 /
6.7 |
50.0% /
42.4% |
11.1% /
21.2% |
3.8 /
3.8 |
52 /
72 |
51.3% /
40.7% |
48.1% /
45.8% |
26.0% /
36.9% |
5.9 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.6% /
45.8% |
25.0 /
28.6 |
| 6 |
CIN |
31 – 27 W |
-6.2 |
53.3% /
43.9% |
2.2% /
4.9% |
2.3% /
2.6% |
8.2 /
7.3 |
40.0% /
43.8% |
20.0% /
28.1% |
3.9 /
3.1 |
60 /
73 |
47.9% /
41.5% |
50.0% /
43.8% |
50.7% /
39.4% |
7.2 /
5.5 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
25.0% /
43.8% |
29.0 /
23.7 |
| 8 |
@DET |
41 – 21 W |
6.0 |
58.3% /
40.4% |
5.6% /
10.6% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
6.9 /
6.3 |
48.7% /
30.8% |
17.9% /
46.2% |
3.1 /
2.2 |
75 /
60 |
55.2% /
36.4% |
53.3% /
38.3% |
43.2% /
50.9% |
4.9 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
52.0% /
21.7% |
29.4 /
27.8 |
| 9 |
BAL |
10 – 24 L |
-1.9 |
43.2% /
60.0% |
0.0% /
8.0% |
2.3% /
0.0% |
5.2 /
6.2 |
61.9% /
60.5% |
14.3% /
26.3% |
5.3 /
2.9 |
65 /
63 |
58.3% /
65.3% |
49.2% /
60.3% |
31.0% /
15.4% |
5.2 /
4.2 |
1.5% /
1.6% |
32.3% /
60.3% |
27.8 /
28.0 |
| 10 |
@TEN |
34 – 17 W |
0.8 |
55.0% /
46.4% |
2.5% /
3.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.4 /
4.9 |
65.5% /
53.1% |
24.1% /
31.3% |
4.6 /
4.9 |
69 /
60 |
65.4% /
55.1% |
59.4% /
50.0% |
39.3% /
35.7% |
6.2 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
42.0% /
53.3% |
29.9 /
22.3 |
| 11 |
GB |
34 – 31 W |
-5.0 |
51.4% /
53.8% |
2.7% /
2.6% |
2.8% /
2.6% |
7.6 /
7.7 |
45.9% /
72.2% |
32.4% /
16.7% |
3.8 /
3.7 |
74 /
57 |
48.2% /
68.2% |
48.6% /
59.6% |
37.9% /
44.4% |
5.7 /
6.4 |
1.4% /
5.3% |
50.0% /
31.6% |
41.6 /
28.6 |
| 12 |
TEN |
26 – 45 L |
-12.6 |
45.7% /
52.2% |
4.3% /
4.3% |
2.3% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
9.6 |
38.1% /
64.4% |
9.5% /
6.7% |
2.7 /
5.1 |
67 /
68 |
45.1% /
66.0% |
43.3% /
60.3% |
34.2% /
55.9% |
5.0 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.3% /
66.2% |
19.5 /
36.4 |
| 13 |
@HOU |
26 – 20 W |
4.0 |
50.0% /
44.2% |
7.9% /
11.6% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
6.9 /
7.2 |
48.3% /
36.8% |
27.6% /
21.1% |
3.8 /
4.7 |
67 /
62 |
56.9% /
42.9% |
49.3% /
41.9% |
39.6% /
46.2% |
5.5 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
43.3% /
30.6% |
27.0 /
22.4 |
| 14 |
@LV |
44 – 27 W |
7.4 |
50.0% /
56.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
4.3% |
8.7 /
7.5 |
45.2% /
45.5% |
25.8% /
27.3% |
6.8 /
3.6 |
59 /
68 |
43.5% /
50.0% |
47.5% /
52.9% |
71.7% /
45.3% |
7.7 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
52.5% /
32.4% |
31.2 /
24.0 |
| 15 |
HOU |
27 – 20 W |
6.5 |
56.7% /
60.9% |
3.3% /
10.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.4 /
7.4 |
60.9% /
52.4% |
21.7% /
4.8% |
5.5 /
4.0 |
53 /
67 |
60.0% /
58.0% |
58.5% /
58.2% |
49.7% /
32.5% |
6.6 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
3.0% |
43.4% /
31.3% |
24.5 /
22.9 |
| 16 |
@PIT |
24 – 28 L |
6.1 |
40.0% /
60.0% |
12.5% /
2.0% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
6.7 |
64.3% /
35.7% |
14.3% /
28.6% |
4.5 /
1.4 |
68 /
64 |
53.7% /
62.0% |
50.0% /
54.7% |
50.4% /
36.8% |
5.4 /
5.5 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
41.2% /
21.9% |
23.8 /
33.1 |
| 17 |
JAC |
28 – 14 W |
9.8 |
48.1% /
39.6% |
0.0% /
12.5% |
3.7% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
4.8 |
56.8% /
35.3% |
18.9% /
29.4% |
7.4 /
3.1 |
64 /
65 |
59.6% /
41.7% |
53.1% /
38.5% |
53.3% /
18.7% |
6.8 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
57.8% /
26.2% |
35.9 /
23.2 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
NYJ |
27 – 17 W |
12.9 |
55.1% /
36.8% |
6.1% /
7.9% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
6.2 /
5.3 |
40.6% /
60.0% |
31.3% /
20.0% |
3.1 /
3.5 |
81 /
53 |
48.4% /
47.5% |
49.4% /
43.4% |
27.5% /
47.2% |
5.0 /
4.8 |
2.5% /
1.9% |
39.5% /
28.3% |
39.5 /
20.7 |
| 2 |
@MIA |
31 – 28 W |
4.2 |
61.1% /
48.0% |
2.8% /
6.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
11.5 /
6.2 |
39.1% /
63.6% |
17.4% /
18.2% |
4.8 /
4.5 |
59 /
72 |
55.3% /
56.9% |
52.5% /
52.8% |
70.0% /
29.5% |
8.9 /
5.7 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
39.0% /
30.6% |
20.4 /
26.9 |
| 3 |
LA |
35 – 32 W |
8.9 |
56.8% /
58.8% |
10.8% /
5.9% |
3.0% /
3.1% |
7.4 /
9.1 |
61.9% /
68.8% |
14.3% /
18.8% |
4.8 /
5.2 |
58 /
66 |
59.6% /
65.5% |
58.6% /
63.6% |
57.1% /
48.3% |
6.5 /
7.2 |
1.7% /
1.5% |
36.2% /
48.5% |
32.9 /
27.0 |
| 4 |
@LV |
30 – 23 W |
7.0 |
57.1% /
54.3% |
2.9% /
4.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.8 /
6.5 |
50.0% /
52.2% |
37.5% /
26.1% |
2.6 /
3.7 |
59 /
69 |
54.5% /
53.8% |
54.2% /
53.6% |
39.3% /
27.7% |
5.7 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
2.9% |
40.7% /
33.3% |
38.3 /
23.8 |
| 5 |
@TEN |
16 – 42 L |
-9.8 |
55.3% /
67.9% |
2.1% /
0.0% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
5.9 /
7.0 |
54.5% /
47.1% |
9.1% /
17.6% |
4.3 /
4.1 |
69 /
62 |
49.0% /
54.9% |
55.1% /
56.5% |
15.1% /
19.5% |
5.4 /
5.4 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
31.9% /
54.8% |
17.3 /
46.1 |
| 6 |
KC |
17 – 26 L |
-3.6 |
44.4% /
59.3% |
0.0% /
3.7% |
3.7% /
0.0% |
4.5 /
8.2 |
56.5% /
67.4% |
17.4% /
17.4% |
3.7 /
5.3 |
50 /
73 |
51.2% /
65.5% |
50.0% /
64.4% |
21.8% /
44.8% |
4.1 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
46.0% /
63.0% |
27.4 /
21.8 |
| 7 |
@NYJ |
18 – 10 W |
-1.4 |
57.8% /
27.6% |
4.4% /
20.7% |
0.0% /
8.7% |
6.6 /
3.1 |
63.0% /
59.1% |
18.5% /
27.3% |
4.7 /
4.5 |
72 /
51 |
67.8% /
45.2% |
59.7% /
41.2% |
33.2% /
34.7% |
5.9 /
3.7 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
37.5% /
43.1% |
36.1 /
25.8 |
| 8 |
NE |
24 – 21 W |
3.8 |
47.4% /
48.1% |
5.3% /
7.4% |
5.6% /
0.0% |
7.8 /
6.0 |
52.6% /
55.9% |
10.5% /
11.8% |
5.0 /
5.5 |
57 /
61 |
55.8% /
52.9% |
50.9% /
52.5% |
54.0% /
37.8% |
5.9 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
66.7% /
55.7% |
23.6 /
32.4 |
| 9 |
SEA |
44 – 34 W |
13.1 |
55.6% /
45.7% |
15.6% /
10.9% |
0.0% /
4.9% |
8.6 /
7.9 |
36.8% /
58.8% |
26.3% /
35.3% |
1.8 /
3.4 |
64 /
63 |
54.0% /
54.2% |
50.0% /
49.2% |
54.5% /
52.5% |
6.6 /
6.7 |
0.0% /
3.2% |
29.7% /
27.0% |
44.8 /
24.1 |
| 10 |
@ARI |
30 – 32 L |
3.2 |
54.0% /
51.4% |
0.0% /
8.6% |
4.0% /
3.1% |
5.9 /
6.7 |
44.4% /
62.9% |
38.9% /
14.3% |
4.1 /
6.2 |
68 /
70 |
52.7% /
60.7% |
51.5% /
57.1% |
40.4% /
53.9% |
5.4 /
6.5 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
26.5% /
50.0% |
29.9 /
29.3 |
| 12 |
LAC |
27 – 17 W |
7.9 |
50.0% /
43.6% |
10.7% /
5.5% |
4.0% /
1.9% |
5.7 /
5.3 |
53.3% /
33.3% |
26.7% /
41.7% |
5.7 /
3.2 |
58 /
79 |
54.2% /
43.1% |
51.7% /
40.5% |
48.8% /
31.6% |
5.7 /
4.6 |
3.4% /
0.0% |
51.7% /
30.4% |
30.3 /
26.3 |
| 13 |
@SF |
34 – 24 W |
6.7 |
75.6% /
56.4% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
5.1% |
9.0 /
8.1 |
48.1% /
47.6% |
25.9% /
28.6% |
3.0 /
4.1 |
68 /
60 |
69.1% /
54.2% |
64.7% /
53.3% |
38.8% /
42.3% |
6.6 /
6.7 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
39.7% /
35.0% |
29.2 /
30.0 |
| 14 |
PIT |
26 – 15 W |
4.7 |
45.5% /
47.4% |
2.3% /
2.6% |
2.3% /
5.4% |
5.2 /
4.7 |
48.1% /
35.3% |
14.8% /
23.5% |
3.9 /
2.8 |
71 /
55 |
47.3% /
51.1% |
46.5% /
43.6% |
28.1% /
8.9% |
4.7 /
4.1 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
38.0% /
30.9% |
27.5 /
26.0 |
| 15 |
@DEN |
48 – 19 W |
14.7 |
56.1% /
48.6% |
2.4% /
8.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.6 /
3.3 |
54.2% /
50.0% |
12.5% /
17.9% |
7.6 /
5.0 |
65 /
63 |
52.9% /
51.0% |
55.4% /
49.2% |
53.2% /
23.9% |
8.2 /
4.0 |
1.5% /
1.6% |
36.9% /
44.4% |
32.9 /
24.9 |
| 16 |
@NE |
38 – 9 W |
14.1 |
57.5% /
20.8% |
0.0% /
12.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.6 /
2.3 |
54.8% /
41.7% |
6.5% /
12.5% |
4.2 /
6.0 |
71 /
48 |
60.4% /
30.6% |
56.3% /
31.3% |
39.7% /
49.8% |
6.7 /
4.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.7% /
50.0% |
23.3 /
19.1 |
| 17 |
MIA |
56 – 26 W |
15.6 |
61.5% /
46.7% |
2.6% /
1.7% |
5.3% /
5.1% |
9.7 /
6.4 |
36.0% /
50.0% |
20.0% /
15.0% |
3.1 /
3.5 |
64 /
80 |
56.9% /
53.1% |
51.6% /
47.5% |
48.8% /
41.9% |
7.1 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
39.1% /
25.0% |
33.4 /
24.6 |
Indianapolis Colts
@ 
Buffalo Bills