Game Analysis
Lean – Indianapolis (+13.5) over BALTIMORE
The Colts allow more yards per pass play than any team in the league and there’s reason to believe it will get even worse with top cornerback Rashaad Melvin out of the lineup. Melvin missed the last two games but his absence was much less pronounced against Buffalo in the “Snow Game” due to the lack of passing. Indianapolis’s defense surrendered 10.7 yards per pass play to Brock Osweiler without Melvin last week. Melvin isn’t an elite cornerback but his replacement, Quincy Wilson, ranks 131st out of 132 cornerbacks with at least 100 plays in coverage allowing 2.79 yards per cover snap. Joe Flacco has struggled throwing the ball deep this season and he’s been more reliant on his running backs with Danny Woodhead in the lineup this season. Woodhead and fellow back Alex Collins haven’t been that successful in the pass offense (Woodhead 5.6 yards per target and Collins 5.9 YPT) but the Colts allow the most yards per target to opposing running backs in the NFL and I expect better production from those two when Flacco isn’t trying to take advantage of the Colts’ weakened secondary.
Indianapolis’s offensive line surrenders a league-worst 10.8% sack rate and Baltimore’s defensive front, boasting 7.2% sack rate (7th), should have success getting to Jacoby Brissett. However, the Colts could be dangerous if Brissett is given time to throw the deep ball to T.Y. Hilton because the Ravens will be without top cornerback Jimmy Smith. Hilton has hauled in 6 of 7 catchable balls thrown his way 20+ yards down the field.
Obviously, the Ravens have the match-up advantages, which is why they’re such a huge favorite. However, the look-ahead line for this game was Ravens by 10 and my model also makes Baltimore a 10-point favorite after adjusting for Melvin’s injury, so there is certainly line value in favor of the underdog here. However, Indy does apply to a 71-143-5 ATS last road game situation that makes me hesitant to take advantage of the line value. Still, I suppose I’d lean slightly with Indianapolis if I was forced to pick this game in a pool. I certainly wouldn’t advise betting it though.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.1
33.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
39.4%
47.5%
-
Sack Rate
10.5%
4.7%
-
Int Rate
2.2%
3.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.7%
23.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.3%
50.4%
-
NYPP
5.5
7.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.6
31.9
-
RB YPR
3.5
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
22.8%
23.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.0%
38.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
34.1%
43.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.6
3.9
Game
-
All Snaps
62.7
65.7
-
Early Down Succ
41.3%
43.3%
-
Succ Rate
39.8%
42.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.3%
48.6%
-
Yards Per Play
4.6
5.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.6
28.8
-
Run Ratio
45.5%
48.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.7
27.3
-
Game Control
-2.1
2.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.0
37.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
39.7%
40.5%
-
Sack Rate
4.7%
7.6%
-
Int Rate
2.5%
4.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.3%
20.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
29.8%
39.5%
-
NYPP
5.3
5.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.7
27.6
-
RB YPR
4.0
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
23.8%
25.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
45.8%
38.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.9%
42.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
3.9
Game
-
All Snaps
65.7
65.4
-
Early Down Succ
46.2%
41.9%
-
Succ Rate
42.8%
40.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
35.6%
41.7%
-
Yards Per Play
4.6
4.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.4%
1.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.9
27.8
-
Run Ratio
45.6%
42.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
32.0
26.4
-
Game Control
1.9
-1.9
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@LA |
9 – 46 L |
-21.3 |
28.0% / 54.8% |
16.0% / 3.2% |
9.5% / 0.0% |
6.0 / 10.0 |
32.0% / 22.5% |
28.0% / 22.5% |
3.0 / 1.7 |
50 / 71 |
40.5% / 43.5% |
30.0% / 36.6% |
81.4% / 52.7% |
4.5 / 5.3 |
2.0% / 1.4% |
50.0% / 56.3% |
23.1 / 35.8 |
2 |
ARI |
13 – 16 L |
6.3 |
41.5% / 40.0% |
9.8% / 10.0% |
2.7% / 2.8% |
4.6 / 7.7 |
34.5% / 34.6% |
24.1% / 11.5% |
2.6 / 3.2 |
70 / 66 |
36.5% / 39.6% |
38.6% / 37.9% |
16.5% / 63.6% |
3.8 / 5.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
41.4% / 39.4% |
24.5 / 29.6 |
3 |
CLE |
31 – 28 W |
9.2 |
33.3% / 35.4% |
11.1% / 2.1% |
0.0% / 6.4% |
9.0 / 4.9 |
27.0% / 57.1% |
37.8% / 19.0% |
2.5 / 5.3 |
64 / 69 |
24.4% / 42.9% |
29.7% / 42.0% |
63.7% / 53.8% |
5.3 / 5.0 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
57.8% / 30.4% |
29.6 / 28.9 |
4 |
@SEA |
18 – 46 L |
-7.0 |
37.5% / 65.5% |
9.4% / 10.3% |
3.4% / 7.7% |
4.3 / 9.8 |
52.0% / 42.4% |
8.0% / 24.2% |
3.9 / 5.9 |
57 / 62 |
44.2% / 47.8% |
43.9% / 53.2% |
30.0% / 67.7% |
4.2 / 7.7 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
43.9% / 53.2% |
28.3 / 20.2 |
5 |
SF |
26 – 23 W |
3.3 |
44.7% / 50.0% |
10.5% / 4.2% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
7.6 / 7.0 |
32.4% / 31.8% |
32.4% / 31.8% |
4.4 / 3.0 |
75 / 70 |
38.2% / 46.3% |
38.7% / 44.3% |
58.1% / 37.3% |
6.0 / 5.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
49.3% / 31.4% |
28.8 / 17.5 |
6 |
@TEN |
22 – 36 L |
1.2 |
51.4% / 57.6% |
0.0% / 3.0% |
0.0% / 3.1% |
5.7 / 9.2 |
40.0% / 42.9% |
20.0% / 20.0% |
4.3 / 4.8 |
57 / 68 |
53.2% / 51.9% |
47.4% / 50.0% |
22.6% / 42.2% |
5.2 / 7.0 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
35.1% / 51.5% |
26.5 / 27.4 |
7 |
JAC |
0 – 27 L |
-18.7 |
34.0% / 53.6% |
21.3% / 3.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
2.9 / 11.8 |
60.0% / 44.7% |
20.0% / 21.1% |
4.8 / 5.0 |
67 / 66 |
46.9% / 49.0% |
41.8% / 48.5% |
41.4% / 61.8% |
3.5 / 7.9 |
0.0% / 3.0% |
29.9% / 57.6% |
28.0 / 20.1 |
8 |
@CIN |
23 – 24 L |
0.5 |
39.5% / 43.8% |
9.3% / 9.4% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
5.0 / 6.8 |
60.7% / 30.4% |
10.7% / 30.4% |
4.1 / 2.6 |
71 / 55 |
48.1% / 40.0% |
47.9% / 38.2% |
18.1% / 46.0% |
4.7 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 3.6% |
39.4% / 41.8% |
31.4 / 32.7 |
9 |
@HOU |
20 – 14 W |
6.3 |
45.5% / 28.3% |
9.1% / 4.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.5 / 4.2 |
44.8% / 38.1% |
20.7% / 14.3% |
3.2 / 4.5 |
62 / 67 |
51.1% / 32.7% |
45.2% / 31.3% |
55.6% / 31.6% |
6.0 / 4.3 |
1.6% / 1.5% |
46.8% / 31.3% |
19.1 / 24.2 |
10 |
PIT |
17 – 20 L |
5.1 |
40.7% / 50.0% |
11.1% / 3.1% |
4.2% / 3.2% |
7.3 / 7.1 |
36.7% / 36.7% |
33.3% / 36.7% |
2.4 / 2.9 |
57 / 62 |
40.0% / 44.9% |
38.6% / 43.5% |
45.1% / 38.9% |
4.7 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
52.6% / 48.4% |
21.6 / 31.7 |
12 |
TEN |
16 – 20 L |
0.5 |
37.8% / 48.0% |
21.6% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 8.0% |
4.5 / 7.4 |
37.5% / 40.0% |
20.8% / 26.7% |
3.7 / 3.1 |
61 / 55 |
36.2% / 48.8% |
37.7% / 43.6% |
28.3% / 35.6% |
4.2 / 5.1 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
39.3% / 54.5% |
29.8 / 31.1 |
13 |
@JAC |
10 – 30 L |
-11.5 |
44.7% / 56.8% |
10.5% / 2.7% |
5.9% / 0.0% |
3.9 / 8.9 |
50.0% / 40.7% |
15.4% / 33.3% |
5.4 / 3.6 |
64 / 64 |
46.7% / 45.8% |
46.9% / 50.0% |
39.3% / 39.9% |
4.5 / 6.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
40.6% / 42.2% |
21.3 / 30.9 |
14 |
@BUF |
7 – 13 L |
-3.4 |
27.3% / 33.3% |
4.5% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 6.7% |
2.9 / 6.1 |
31.9% / 32.7% |
29.8% / 25.0% |
3.5 / 4.4 |
69 / 67 |
29.8% / 26.7% |
30.4% / 32.8% |
17.5% / 53.4% |
3.3 / 4.8 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
68.1% / 77.6% |
35.8 / 24.7 |
15 |
DEN |
13 – 25 L |
0.8 |
45.2% / 48.3% |
3.2% / 10.3% |
0.0% / 3.8% |
5.1 / 8.6 |
34.8% / 40.8% |
17.4% / 18.4% |
3.1 / 4.4 |
54 / 78 |
42.1% / 46.4% |
40.7% / 43.6% |
18.3% / 56.4% |
4.2 / 5.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
42.6% / 62.8% |
25.8 / 27.4 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@CIN |
20 – 0 W |
11.0 |
27.8% / 30.6% |
5.6% / 13.9% |
5.9% / 12.9% |
6.2 / 4.0 |
45.2% / 36.4% |
19.0% / 22.7% |
3.7 / 3.5 |
60 / 58 |
39.1% / 34.1% |
40.0% / 32.8% |
32.1% / 45.7% |
4.5 / 3.8 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
70.0% / 37.9% |
32.2 / 30.8 |
2 |
CLE |
24 – 10 W |
9.4 |
50.0% / 31.1% |
5.6% / 6.7% |
2.9% / 9.5% |
5.6 / 6.5 |
36.4% / 38.1% |
27.3% / 23.8% |
4.2 / 4.4 |
69 / 66 |
47.3% / 36.5% |
43.5% / 33.3% |
39.9% / 67.1% |
4.9 / 5.8 |
1.4% / 1.5% |
47.8% / 31.8% |
33.9 / 22.3 |
3 |
@JAC |
7 – 44 L |
-23.9 |
24.1% / 54.5% |
6.9% / 0.0% |
7.4% / 0.0% |
1.8 / 7.4 |
56.0% / 31.6% |
20.0% / 10.5% |
5.4 / 4.4 |
54 / 71 |
42.9% / 48.1% |
38.9% / 42.3% |
39.2% / 35.8% |
3.4 / 5.8 |
1.9% / 0.0% |
46.3% / 53.5% |
24.1 / 38.5 |
4 |
PIT |
9 – 26 L |
-8.6 |
52.9% / 41.9% |
7.8% / 3.2% |
4.3% / 3.3% |
4.0 / 6.7 |
46.7% / 46.5% |
46.7% / 23.3% |
5.5 / 4.0 |
66 / 74 |
56.9% / 45.6% |
51.5% / 44.6% |
25.3% / 26.4% |
4.4 / 5.2 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
22.7% / 58.1% |
28.5 / 31.1 |
5 |
@OAK |
30 – 17 W |
11.8 |
42.3% / 34.5% |
0.0% / 10.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.5 / 4.7 |
44.2% / 56.0% |
9.3% / 24.0% |
3.4 / 4.3 |
69 / 54 |
46.9% / 43.9% |
43.5% / 44.4% |
46.5% / 40.0% |
5.3 / 4.5 |
0.0% / 1.9% |
62.3% / 46.3% |
34.0 / 24.9 |
6 |
CHI |
24 – 27 L |
-4.4 |
27.3% / 28.6% |
6.8% / 19.0% |
4.9% / 0.0% |
3.8 / 5.3 |
46.2% / 41.8% |
15.4% / 29.1% |
4.8 / 4.2 |
70 / 76 |
37.3% / 42.1% |
34.3% / 38.2% |
21.6% / 41.1% |
4.2 / 4.5 |
1.4% / 2.6% |
37.1% / 72.4% |
29.9 / 27.6 |
7 |
@MIN |
16 – 24 L |
-5.1 |
36.4% / 54.8% |
11.4% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 3.2% |
3.3 / 6.1 |
40.0% / 39.4% |
35.0% / 27.3% |
3.2 / 5.1 |
64 / 64 |
36.2% / 46.9% |
37.5% / 46.9% |
29.8% / 26.3% |
3.3 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
31.3% / 51.6% |
25.4 / 33.2 |
8 |
MIA |
40 – 0 W |
17.5 |
36.4% / 29.8% |
0.0% / 6.4% |
0.0% / 4.5% |
5.5 / 3.2 |
34.9% / 26.3% |
20.9% / 42.1% |
4.1 / 2.4 |
65 / 66 |
42.6% / 30.6% |
35.4% / 28.8% |
45.0% / 41.3% |
4.6 / 3.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
66.2% / 28.8% |
35.3 / 22.2 |
9 |
@TEN |
20 – 23 L |
-6.3 |
49.1% / 51.6% |
3.6% / 9.7% |
3.8% / 3.6% |
4.9 / 6.0 |
40.9% / 36.4% |
22.7% / 22.7% |
3.3 / 3.3 |
77 / 53 |
47.4% / 53.8% |
46.8% / 45.3% |
8.2% / 49.0% |
4.4 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
28.6% / 41.5% |
24.8 / 34.6 |
11 |
@GB |
23 – 0 W |
7.6 |
32.3% / 38.1% |
9.7% / 14.3% |
3.6% / 8.3% |
5.2 / 4.5 |
44.4% / 44.0% |
25.9% / 32.0% |
2.2 / 3.0 |
58 / 67 |
43.9% / 44.0% |
37.9% / 40.3% |
34.1% / 26.4% |
3.8 / 4.0 |
0.0% / 3.0% |
46.6% / 37.3% |
46.6 / 20.1 |
12 |
HOU |
23 – 16 W |
2.0 |
32.4% / 38.5% |
2.9% / 5.1% |
0.0% / 5.4% |
4.6 / 6.1 |
36.4% / 36.0% |
30.3% / 32.0% |
4.3 / 2.6 |
67 / 64 |
38.3% / 36.0% |
34.3% / 37.5% |
48.3% / 46.9% |
4.4 / 4.7 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
49.3% / 39.1% |
34.3 / 20.9 |
13 |
DET |
44 – 20 W |
9.9 |
55.6% / 48.6% |
0.0% / 8.1% |
0.0% / 5.9% |
7.5 / 7.9 |
46.4% / 20.8% |
28.6% / 37.5% |
3.6 / 3.3 |
64 / 61 |
56.0% / 39.6% |
51.6% / 37.7% |
38.8% / 60.8% |
5.8 / 6.1 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
43.8% / 39.3% |
36.6 / 23.2 |
14 |
@PIT |
38 – 39 L |
-1.6 |
45.7% / 56.7% |
2.9% / 4.5% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
7.5 / 7.3 |
65.4% / 43.8% |
11.5% / 18.8% |
5.8 / 3.7 |
61 / 83 |
56.9% / 50.8% |
54.1% / 54.2% |
49.6% / 41.3% |
6.8 / 6.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
42.6% / 19.3% |
26.0 / 21.0 |
15 |
@CLE |
27 – 10 W |
7.8 |
44.2% / 28.2% |
2.3% / 5.1% |
0.0% / 5.4% |
6.5 / 3.5 |
57.6% / 47.4% |
21.2% / 15.8% |
3.0 / 6.8 |
76 / 58 |
55.4% / 34.9% |
50.0% / 34.5% |
39.2% / 35.3% |
5.0 / 4.6 |
0.0% / 3.4% |
43.4% / 32.8% |
36.0 / 18.8 |