Indianapolis Colts @

Baltimore Ravens

Sat, Dec 23
1:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 101
Odds: Baltimore Ravens -13.5, Total: 41

Game Analysis

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Lean – Indianapolis (+13.5) over BALTIMORE

The Colts allow more yards per pass play than any team in the league and there’s reason to believe it will get even worse with top cornerback Rashaad Melvin out of the lineup. Melvin missed the last two games but his absence was much less pronounced against Buffalo in the “Snow Game” due to the lack of passing. Indianapolis’s defense surrendered 10.7 yards per pass play to Brock Osweiler without Melvin last week. Melvin isn’t an elite cornerback but his replacement, Quincy Wilson, ranks 131st out of 132 cornerbacks with at least 100 plays in coverage allowing 2.79 yards per cover snap. Joe Flacco has struggled throwing the ball deep this season and he’s been more reliant on his running backs with Danny Woodhead in the lineup this season. Woodhead and fellow back Alex Collins haven’t been that successful in the pass offense (Woodhead 5.6 yards per target and Collins 5.9 YPT) but the Colts allow the most yards per target to opposing running backs in the NFL and I expect better production from those two when Flacco isn’t trying to take advantage of the Colts’ weakened secondary.

Indianapolis’s offensive line surrenders a league-worst 10.8% sack rate and Baltimore’s defensive front, boasting 7.2% sack rate (7th), should have success getting to Jacoby Brissett. However, the Colts could be dangerous if Brissett is given time to throw the deep ball to T.Y. Hilton because the Ravens will be without top cornerback Jimmy Smith. Hilton has hauled in 6 of 7 catchable balls thrown his way 20+ yards down the field.

Obviously, the Ravens have the match-up advantages, which is why they’re such a huge favorite. However, the look-ahead line for this game was Ravens by 10 and my model also makes Baltimore a 10-point favorite after adjusting for Melvin’s injury, so there is certainly line value in favor of the underdog here. However, Indy does apply to a 71-143-5 ATS last road game situation that makes me hesitant to take advantage of the line value. Still, I suppose I’d lean slightly with Indianapolis if I was forced to pick this game in a pool. I certainly wouldn’t advise betting it though.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Colts
  • Ravens
IND
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 34.1 33.8
  • Succ Pass Plays 39.4% 47.5%
  • Sack Rate 10.5% 4.7%
  • Int Rate 2.2% 3.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 14.7% 23.8%
  • Big Pass Yards 38.3% 50.4%
  • NYPP 5.5 7.8



Rush


  • Rush Plays 28.6 31.9
  • RB YPR 3.5 3.7
  • Stuff Rate 22.8% 23.9%
  • Succ Rush Plays 41.0% 38.3%
  • Big Rush Yards 34.1% 43.9%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.6 3.9




Game

  • All Snaps 62.7 65.7
  • Early Down Succ 41.3% 43.3%
  • Succ Rate 39.8% 42.5%
  • Big Yards Rate 38.3% 48.6%
  • Yards Per Play 4.6 5.8
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.8%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.6 28.8
  • Run Ratio 45.5% 48.5%
  • Starting Field Pos 26.7 27.3
  • Game Control -2.1 2.1
 
  • Points 16.1 26.3
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