Houston Texans @

Washington Redskins

Sun, Nov 18
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 463
Odds: Washington Redskins +3, Total: 42

Game Analysis

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Houston (-3) vs WASHINGTON

The Redskins offensive line is in shambles as they play without 6-time Pro Bowl left tackle Trent Williams and both starting guards. They lost backup Geron Christian to a torn ACL last week and his backup Ty Nsekhe is now questionable with an ankle injury. I expect J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney, and Whitney Mercilus to dominate the trenches in this game. The Texans have the 3rd-rated rush defense in our numbers and should limit receiving out of the backfield as they allow just 5.1 yards per target to opposing running backs (6th). Alex Smith may not have his running backs available on check-downs, but he does have a favorable matchup targeting tight ends, which Washington does at the 4th-highest rate in the league. Houston’s defense is surrendering 9.1 yards per target to opposing tight ends and I expect productive outings from Vernon Davis and Jordan Reed.

The Texans will play their second game without deep threat Will Fuller, but Demaryius Thomas might be a better fit for Houston’s offense as Deshaun Watson doesn’t typically have time to look downfield due to getting pressured on a league-high 45% of his drop backs. The Texans target wide receivers 4th-most in the league, and while Washington’s defense has done a good job limiting opposing running backs and tight ends, they concede 9.5 yards per target to wide receivers (29th). I expect Watson to utilize DeAndre Hopkins and Thomas often on Sunday.

Road favorites coming off a bye are 69-38-1 ATS since 2000 but Washington applies to an 80-25-1 ATS home underdog momentum situation that is based on last week’s impressive win at Tampa Bay. Our model favors Houston by 3.7 points after accounting for the injuries but I’m going to pass on this game.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Texans
  • Redskins
HOU
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 33.3 38.2
  • Succ Pass Plays 47.6% 47.2%
  • Sack Rate 9.4% 6.9%
  • Int Rate 2.4% 2.8%
  • Deep Pass Rate 19.8% 15.9%
  • Big Pass Yards 37.2% 38.8%
  • NYPP 7.6 6.6



Rush


  • Rush Plays 31.0 26.0
  • RB YPR 3.3 3.3
  • Stuff Rate 25.1% 25.6%
  • Succ Rush Plays 41.2% 39.5%
  • Big Rush Yards 35.9% 29.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.9 3.6




Game

  • All Snaps 64.3 64.2
  • Early Down Succ 46.0% 43.4%
  • Succ Rate 44.8% 43.6%
  • Big Yards Rate 37.9% 35.4%
  • Yards Per Play 5.8 5.2
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 1.3%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.8 29.8
  • Run Ratio 48.4% 42.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 31.8 24.6
  • Game Control 1.1 -1.1
 
  • Points 24.0 20.4
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