Houston Texans @ Washington Redskins Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Houston (-3) vs WASHINGTON

The Redskins offensive line is in shambles as they play without 6-time Pro Bowl left tackle Trent Williams and both starting guards. They lost backup Geron Christian to a torn ACL last week and his backup Ty Nsekhe is now questionable with an ankle injury. I expect J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney, and Whitney Mercilus to dominate the trenches in this game. The Texans have the 3rd-rated rush defense in our numbers and should limit receiving out of the backfield as they allow just 5.1 yards per target to opposing running backs (6th). Alex Smith may not have his running backs available on check-downs, but he does have a favorable matchup targeting tight ends, which Washington does at the 4th-highest rate in the league. Houston’s defense is surrendering 9.1 yards per target to opposing tight ends and I expect productive outings from Vernon Davis and Jordan Reed.

The Texans will play their second game without deep threat Will Fuller, but Demaryius Thomas might be a better fit for Houston’s offense as Deshaun Watson doesn’t typically have time to look downfield due to getting pressured on a league-high 45% of his drop backs. The Texans target wide receivers 4th-most in the league, and while Washington’s defense has done a good job limiting opposing running backs and tight ends, they concede 9.5 yards per target to wide receivers (29th). I expect Watson to utilize DeAndre Hopkins and Thomas often on Sunday.

Road favorites coming off a bye are 69-38-1 ATS since 2000 but Washington applies to an 80-25-1 ATS home underdog momentum situation that is based on last week’s impressive win at Tampa Bay. Our model favors Houston by 3.7 points after accounting for the injuries but I’m going to pass on this game.

Team Stats
Game Log

Texans
Redskins

HOU

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 33.3 38.2
Succ Pass Plays 47.6% 47.2%
Sack Rate 9.4% 6.9%
Int Rate 2.4% 2.8%
Deep Pass Rate 19.8% 15.9%
Big Pass Yards 37.2% 38.8%
NYPP 7.6 6.6

Rush

Rush Plays 31.0 26.0
RB YPR 3.3 3.3
Stuff Rate 25.1% 25.6%
Succ Rush Plays 41.2% 39.5%
Big Rush Yards 35.9% 29.0%
Yards Per Rush 3.9 3.6

Game

All Snaps 64.3 64.2
Early Down Succ 46.0% 43.4%
Succ Rate 44.8% 43.6%
Big Yards Rate 37.9% 35.4%
Yards Per Play 5.8 5.2
Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 1.3%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.8 29.8
Run Ratio 48.4% 42.0%
Starting Field Pos 31.8 24.6
Game Control 1.1 -1.1

Points 24.0 20.4

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NE	20 – 27 L	-10.6	29.7% / 48.8%	8.1% / 4.9%	2.9% / 2.6%	4.3 / 6.5	45.7% / 38.7%	25.7% / 9.7%	4.8 / 3.9	72 / 72	43.1% / 47.4%	37.5% / 44.4%	37.4% / 38.0%	4.5 / 5.4	1.4% / 2.8%	48.6% / 43.1%	35.4 / 25.4
2	@TEN	17 – 20 L	-6.4	48.6% / 39.1%	11.4% / 4.3%	3.2% / 0.0%	8.3 / 8.0	42.3% / 35.3%	11.5% / 14.7%	5.7 / 2.9	61 / 57	46.0% / 35.0%	45.9% / 36.8%	53.1% / 27.9%	7.2 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	42.6% / 59.6%	26.6 / 23.2
3	NYG	22 – 27 L	-7.6	53.7% / 60.6%	7.3% / 12.1%	2.6% / 0.0%	9.0 / 8.0	42.1% / 32.1%	36.8% / 25.0%	3.1 / 4.1	60 / 61	50.0% / 47.8%	50.0% / 47.5%	53.4% / 41.3%	7.1 / 6.2	1.7% / 0.0%	31.7% / 45.9%	28.9 / 22.2
4	@IND	37 – 34 W	6.7	55.3% / 48.5%	14.9% / 6.1%	2.5% / 0.0%	7.4 / 6.6	42.9% / 41.2%	28.6% / 41.2%	3.4 / 2.4	82 / 83	49.2% / 44.6%	50.0% / 47.0%	37.1% / 26.6%	5.7 / 5.8	0.0% / 2.4%	42.7% / 20.5%	33.4 / 24.1
5	DAL	19 – 16 W	-0.3	79.4% / 65.0%	2.9% / 10.0%	3.0% / 11.1%	11.0 / 9.7	32.3% / 36.7%	32.3% / 30.0%	2.8 / 3.3	65 / 50	53.3% / 43.2%	56.9% / 48.0%	30.1% / 52.9%	7.1 / 5.9	1.5% / 0.0%	47.7% / 60.0%	27.9 / 30.8
6	BUF	20 – 13 W	4.3	27.3% / 29.0%	21.2% / 6.5%	7.7% / 6.9%	4.3 / 4.2	36.0% / 40.7%	28.0% / 22.2%	3.0 / 3.7	58 / 58	34.9% / 32.6%	31.0% / 34.5%	34.1% / 46.3%	3.7 / 3.9	1.7% / 1.7%	43.1% / 46.6%	36.5 / 28.2
7	@JAC	20 – 7 W	12.6	36.0% / 45.7%	4.0% / 8.7%	0.0% / 2.4%	5.2 / 4.1	51.3% / 31.8%	12.8% / 27.3%	3.7 / 3.2	64 / 68	47.7% / 41.7%	45.3% / 41.2%	21.2% / 13.1%	4.3 / 3.8	0.0% / 2.9%	60.9% / 32.4%	36.3 / 20.0
8	MIA	42 – 23 W	7.4	45.0% / 40.0%	0.0% / 5.0%	0.0% / 2.6%	12.0 / 6.4	38.9% / 64.0%	19.4% / 20.0%	5.3 / 4.6	56 / 65	39.0% / 54.9%	41.1% / 49.2%	64.0% / 34.3%	7.6 / 5.7	0.0% / 0.0%	64.3% / 38.5%	29.7 / 25.3
9	@DEN	19 – 17 W	3.8	53.6% / 47.7%	14.3% / 4.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.9 / 6.2	39.4% / 35.0%	30.3% / 40.0%	3.0 / 3.8	61 / 64	51.1% / 43.8%	45.9% / 43.8%	10.7% / 38.5%	4.8 / 5.4	0.0% / 1.6%	54.1% / 31.3%	31.4 / 22.5

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@ARI	24 – 6 W	13.7	600.0% / 700.0%	100.0% / 100.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	82.3 / 72.5	46.5% / 56.3%	25.6% / 12.5%	4.3 / 4.3	46 / 18	50.0% / 53.7%	82.6% / 127.8%	47.0% / 35.0%	9.3 / 11.9	2.2% / 5.6%	93.5% / 88.9%	18.0 / 29.3
2	IND	9 – 21 L	-8.3	48.9% / 43.8%	6.4% / 3.1%	0.0% / 6.5%	5.7 / 5.5	40.9% / 40.0%	40.9% / 13.3%	3.0 / 3.5	69 / 62	50.0% / 40.5%	46.4% / 41.9%	28.1% / 25.4%	4.8 / 4.6	1.4% / 0.0%	31.9% / 48.4%	29.3 / 24.7
3	GB	31 – 17 W	12.0	50.0% / 34.7%	0.0% / 8.2%	5.0% / 0.0%	11.0 / 4.9	32.4% / 64.7%	10.8% / 11.8%	4.5 / 5.9	57 / 66	40.5% / 42.9%	38.6% / 42.4%	60.1% / 35.9%	6.8 / 5.2	0.0% / 1.5%	64.9% / 25.8%	30.8 / 26.4
5	@NO	19 – 43 L	-15.4	69.2% / 71.4%	11.5% / 7.1%	4.3% / 0.0%	9.4 / 12.5	50.0% / 36.1%	27.8% / 5.6%	2.2 / 2.8	44 / 64	48.8% / 54.9%	61.4% / 51.6%	51.2% / 54.3%	6.4 / 7.0	2.3% / 1.6%	40.9% / 56.3%	33.4 / 36.2
6	CAR	23 – 17 W	9.4	35.9% / 53.7%	7.7% / 2.4%	0.0% / 2.5%	4.0 / 6.6	51.7% / 47.4%	10.3% / 26.3%	4.6 / 4.3	68 / 60	43.8% / 58.3%	42.6% / 51.7%	36.3% / 25.9%	4.3 / 5.9	0.0% / 3.3%	42.6% / 31.7%	33.7 / 20.3
7	DAL	20 – 17 W	4.7	42.3% / 41.0%	3.8% / 10.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.7 / 6.4	40.6% / 54.5%	40.6% / 27.3%	4.1 / 3.3	58 / 61	46.7% / 48.9%	41.4% / 45.9%	46.6% / 45.8%	5.3 / 5.3	0.0% / 3.3%	55.2% / 36.1%	33.4 / 21.4
8	@NYG	20 – 13 W	6.0	46.9% / 32.1%	0.0% / 13.2%	0.0% / 4.3%	5.6 / 5.0	50.0% / 35.7%	23.5% / 42.9%	5.4 / 2.6	66 / 67	53.1% / 34.7%	48.5% / 32.8%	42.1% / 46.9%	5.5 / 4.5	1.5% / 0.0%	51.5% / 20.9%	26.4 / 27.2
9	ATL	14 – 38 L	-12.7	44.9% / 45.0%	6.1% / 5.0%	2.2% / 2.6%	5.9 / 8.4	53.3% / 62.5%	33.3% / 0.0%	5.3 / 6.4	64 / 64	46.9% / 45.1%	46.9% / 51.6%	36.6% / 54.4%	5.7 / 7.7	0.0% / 0.0%	23.4% / 37.5%	23.8 / 22.7
10	@TB	16 – 3 W	4.7	40.0% / 62.8%	10.0% / 4.7%	0.0% / 4.9%	5.7 / 9.3	56.0% / 45.8%	32.0% / 25.0%	4.6 / 4.3	55 / 67	50.0% / 56.1%	47.3% / 56.7%	39.9% / 36.5%	5.2 / 7.5	0.0% / 3.0%	45.5% / 35.8%	29.7 / 19.0

Houston Texans @

Washington Redskins

Sun, Nov 18

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis