Game Analysis
Houston (-3) vs WASHINGTON
The Redskins offensive line is in shambles as they play without 6-time Pro Bowl left tackle Trent Williams and both starting guards. They lost backup Geron Christian to a torn ACL last week and his backup Ty Nsekhe is now questionable with an ankle injury. I expect J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney, and Whitney Mercilus to dominate the trenches in this game. The Texans have the 3rd-rated rush defense in our numbers and should limit receiving out of the backfield as they allow just 5.1 yards per target to opposing running backs (6th). Alex Smith may not have his running backs available on check-downs, but he does have a favorable matchup targeting tight ends, which Washington does at the 4th-highest rate in the league. Houston’s defense is surrendering 9.1 yards per target to opposing tight ends and I expect productive outings from Vernon Davis and Jordan Reed.
The Texans will play their second game without deep threat Will Fuller, but Demaryius Thomas might be a better fit for Houston’s offense as Deshaun Watson doesn’t typically have time to look downfield due to getting pressured on a league-high 45% of his drop backs. The Texans target wide receivers 4th-most in the league, and while Washington’s defense has done a good job limiting opposing running backs and tight ends, they concede 9.5 yards per target to wide receivers (29th). I expect Watson to utilize DeAndre Hopkins and Thomas often on Sunday.
Road favorites coming off a bye are 69-38-1 ATS since 2000 but Washington applies to an 80-25-1 ATS home underdog momentum situation that is based on last week’s impressive win at Tampa Bay. Our model favors Houston by 3.7 points after accounting for the injuries but I’m going to pass on this game.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.3
38.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.6%
47.2%
-
Sack Rate
9.4%
6.9%
-
Int Rate
2.4%
2.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.8%
15.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
37.2%
38.8%
-
NYPP
7.6
6.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
31.0
26.0
-
RB YPR
3.3
3.3
-
Stuff Rate
25.1%
25.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.2%
39.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
35.9%
29.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
3.6
Game
-
All Snaps
64.3
64.2
-
Early Down Succ
46.0%
43.4%
-
Succ Rate
44.8%
43.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
37.9%
35.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.8
5.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
1.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.8
29.8
-
Run Ratio
48.4%
42.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
31.8
24.6
-
Game Control
1.1
-1.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
30.2
36.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
108.7%
120.5%
-
Sack Rate
16.2%
17.1%
-
Int Rate
0.0%
0.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.7%
17.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.0%
41.6%
-
NYPP
15.1
14.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.3
22.4
-
RB YPR
4.1
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
27.2%
18.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.8%
49.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
52.4%
31.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.2
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
58.6
58.8
-
Early Down Succ
47.7%
48.3%
-
Succ Rate
50.6%
55.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.1%
40.0%
-
Yards Per Play
5.9
6.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
2.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
32.9
32.7
-
Run Ratio
49.9%
42.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.7
25.2
-
Game Control
1.6
-1.6
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@NE |
20 – 27 L |
-10.6 |
29.7% / 48.8% |
8.1% / 4.9% |
2.9% / 2.6% |
4.3 / 6.5 |
45.7% / 38.7% |
25.7% / 9.7% |
4.8 / 3.9 |
72 / 72 |
43.1% / 47.4% |
37.5% / 44.4% |
37.4% / 38.0% |
4.5 / 5.4 |
1.4% / 2.8% |
48.6% / 43.1% |
35.4 / 25.4 |
2 |
@TEN |
17 – 20 L |
-6.4 |
48.6% / 39.1% |
11.4% / 4.3% |
3.2% / 0.0% |
8.3 / 8.0 |
42.3% / 35.3% |
11.5% / 14.7% |
5.7 / 2.9 |
61 / 57 |
46.0% / 35.0% |
45.9% / 36.8% |
53.1% / 27.9% |
7.2 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
42.6% / 59.6% |
26.6 / 23.2 |
3 |
NYG |
22 – 27 L |
-7.6 |
53.7% / 60.6% |
7.3% / 12.1% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
9.0 / 8.0 |
42.1% / 32.1% |
36.8% / 25.0% |
3.1 / 4.1 |
60 / 61 |
50.0% / 47.8% |
50.0% / 47.5% |
53.4% / 41.3% |
7.1 / 6.2 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
31.7% / 45.9% |
28.9 / 22.2 |
4 |
@IND |
37 – 34 W |
6.7 |
55.3% / 48.5% |
14.9% / 6.1% |
2.5% / 0.0% |
7.4 / 6.6 |
42.9% / 41.2% |
28.6% / 41.2% |
3.4 / 2.4 |
82 / 83 |
49.2% / 44.6% |
50.0% / 47.0% |
37.1% / 26.6% |
5.7 / 5.8 |
0.0% / 2.4% |
42.7% / 20.5% |
33.4 / 24.1 |
5 |
DAL |
19 – 16 W |
-0.3 |
79.4% / 65.0% |
2.9% / 10.0% |
3.0% / 11.1% |
11.0 / 9.7 |
32.3% / 36.7% |
32.3% / 30.0% |
2.8 / 3.3 |
65 / 50 |
53.3% / 43.2% |
56.9% / 48.0% |
30.1% / 52.9% |
7.1 / 5.9 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
47.7% / 60.0% |
27.9 / 30.8 |
6 |
BUF |
20 – 13 W |
4.3 |
27.3% / 29.0% |
21.2% / 6.5% |
7.7% / 6.9% |
4.3 / 4.2 |
36.0% / 40.7% |
28.0% / 22.2% |
3.0 / 3.7 |
58 / 58 |
34.9% / 32.6% |
31.0% / 34.5% |
34.1% / 46.3% |
3.7 / 3.9 |
1.7% / 1.7% |
43.1% / 46.6% |
36.5 / 28.2 |
7 |
@JAC |
20 – 7 W |
12.6 |
36.0% / 45.7% |
4.0% / 8.7% |
0.0% / 2.4% |
5.2 / 4.1 |
51.3% / 31.8% |
12.8% / 27.3% |
3.7 / 3.2 |
64 / 68 |
47.7% / 41.7% |
45.3% / 41.2% |
21.2% / 13.1% |
4.3 / 3.8 |
0.0% / 2.9% |
60.9% / 32.4% |
36.3 / 20.0 |
8 |
MIA |
42 – 23 W |
7.4 |
45.0% / 40.0% |
0.0% / 5.0% |
0.0% / 2.6% |
12.0 / 6.4 |
38.9% / 64.0% |
19.4% / 20.0% |
5.3 / 4.6 |
56 / 65 |
39.0% / 54.9% |
41.1% / 49.2% |
64.0% / 34.3% |
7.6 / 5.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
64.3% / 38.5% |
29.7 / 25.3 |
9 |
@DEN |
19 – 17 W |
3.8 |
53.6% / 47.7% |
14.3% / 4.5% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.9 / 6.2 |
39.4% / 35.0% |
30.3% / 40.0% |
3.0 / 3.8 |
61 / 64 |
51.1% / 43.8% |
45.9% / 43.8% |
10.7% / 38.5% |
4.8 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
54.1% / 31.3% |
31.4 / 22.5 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@ARI |
24 – 6 W |
13.7 |
600.0% / 700.0% |
100.0% / 100.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
82.3 / 72.5 |
46.5% / 56.3% |
25.6% / 12.5% |
4.3 / 4.3 |
46 / 18 |
50.0% / 53.7% |
82.6% / 127.8% |
47.0% / 35.0% |
9.3 / 11.9 |
2.2% / 5.6% |
93.5% / 88.9% |
18.0 / 29.3 |
2 |
IND |
9 – 21 L |
-8.3 |
48.9% / 43.8% |
6.4% / 3.1% |
0.0% / 6.5% |
5.7 / 5.5 |
40.9% / 40.0% |
40.9% / 13.3% |
3.0 / 3.5 |
69 / 62 |
50.0% / 40.5% |
46.4% / 41.9% |
28.1% / 25.4% |
4.8 / 4.6 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
31.9% / 48.4% |
29.3 / 24.7 |
3 |
GB |
31 – 17 W |
12.0 |
50.0% / 34.7% |
0.0% / 8.2% |
5.0% / 0.0% |
11.0 / 4.9 |
32.4% / 64.7% |
10.8% / 11.8% |
4.5 / 5.9 |
57 / 66 |
40.5% / 42.9% |
38.6% / 42.4% |
60.1% / 35.9% |
6.8 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
64.9% / 25.8% |
30.8 / 26.4 |
5 |
@NO |
19 – 43 L |
-15.4 |
69.2% / 71.4% |
11.5% / 7.1% |
4.3% / 0.0% |
9.4 / 12.5 |
50.0% / 36.1% |
27.8% / 5.6% |
2.2 / 2.8 |
44 / 64 |
48.8% / 54.9% |
61.4% / 51.6% |
51.2% / 54.3% |
6.4 / 7.0 |
2.3% / 1.6% |
40.9% / 56.3% |
33.4 / 36.2 |
6 |
CAR |
23 – 17 W |
9.4 |
35.9% / 53.7% |
7.7% / 2.4% |
0.0% / 2.5% |
4.0 / 6.6 |
51.7% / 47.4% |
10.3% / 26.3% |
4.6 / 4.3 |
68 / 60 |
43.8% / 58.3% |
42.6% / 51.7% |
36.3% / 25.9% |
4.3 / 5.9 |
0.0% / 3.3% |
42.6% / 31.7% |
33.7 / 20.3 |
7 |
DAL |
20 – 17 W |
4.7 |
42.3% / 41.0% |
3.8% / 10.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.7 / 6.4 |
40.6% / 54.5% |
40.6% / 27.3% |
4.1 / 3.3 |
58 / 61 |
46.7% / 48.9% |
41.4% / 45.9% |
46.6% / 45.8% |
5.3 / 5.3 |
0.0% / 3.3% |
55.2% / 36.1% |
33.4 / 21.4 |
8 |
@NYG |
20 – 13 W |
6.0 |
46.9% / 32.1% |
0.0% / 13.2% |
0.0% / 4.3% |
5.6 / 5.0 |
50.0% / 35.7% |
23.5% / 42.9% |
5.4 / 2.6 |
66 / 67 |
53.1% / 34.7% |
48.5% / 32.8% |
42.1% / 46.9% |
5.5 / 4.5 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
51.5% / 20.9% |
26.4 / 27.2 |
9 |
ATL |
14 – 38 L |
-12.7 |
44.9% / 45.0% |
6.1% / 5.0% |
2.2% / 2.6% |
5.9 / 8.4 |
53.3% / 62.5% |
33.3% / 0.0% |
5.3 / 6.4 |
64 / 64 |
46.9% / 45.1% |
46.9% / 51.6% |
36.6% / 54.4% |
5.7 / 7.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
23.4% / 37.5% |
23.8 / 22.7 |
10 |
@TB |
16 – 3 W |
4.7 |
40.0% / 62.8% |
10.0% / 4.7% |
0.0% / 4.9% |
5.7 / 9.3 |
56.0% / 45.8% |
32.0% / 25.0% |
4.6 / 4.3 |
55 / 67 |
50.0% / 56.1% |
47.3% / 56.7% |
39.9% / 36.5% |
5.2 / 7.5 |
0.0% / 3.0% |
45.5% / 35.8% |
29.7 / 19.0 |