Game Analysis

Lean – Houston (+3) over TENNESSEE

· Houston was a 3.5-point favorite over Tennessee on the look-ahead line before the Titans’ upset win in Miami and a bevy of Texans injuries.

· The market has fully accounted for Houston’s losses with Tennessee favored by a field goal and we show value on the Texans in our technical analysis.

· CJ Stroud got a concussion and could not finish the last game after taking a hit late in the fourth quarter. Stroud is worth 4 points over competent backup quarterback Case Keenum, who is averaging 6.1 yppp for his career.

· The Texans were already without starting WR Tank Dell after he suffered a season-ending leg injury in week 13 and it looks like they’ll also be without WR Nico Collins, who is averaging 0.63 EPA/target (4th).

· Houston edge rusher Will Anderson left last week’s game in the fourth quarter with an ankle injury and he is likely out. Anderson has 14 quarterback hits this season (3rd).

· Our power rating on the Texans is 5.5 points lower than it was last week. The market moved 6.5 points through 0.

· Our model favors the Titans by 4.0 with a predicted total of 37.8 points.

· Houston applies to a 67-16-3 ATS bounce-back situation that plays on teams after losing by double-digits as a road favorite, and the Titans apply to a 6-42-2 ATS letdown situation that applies to teams coming off a win as a road underdog or more than 10 points the previous week.

· This game also applies to a 218-132-6 Under situation and I expect Houston’s defense to respond with a good effort after giving up 30 points to the Jets last week.