Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

TENNESSEE (+2) vs Houston

Marcus Mariota injured his elbow during the Tennessee’s opening game, forcing Blaine Gabbert to come in during the loss in Miami. The Titans’ new offense under Matt LaFleur graded 30th in week 1 according to our metrics with the quarterbacks combining for just 5.8 yards per pass play and 3 interceptions. Mariota will be back under center on Sunday, which is good news for the Titans as our quarterback model makes Gabbert 5 points worse per game, but other injuries on Tennessee’s offense will make a major impact in this game. Tight end Delanie Walker is out for the rest of the season after making three consecutive Pro Bowls and our numbers value him at about a half point per game. Furthermore, starting tackles Jack Conklin and Taylor Lewan are both listed as questionable. Conklin and Lewan are two of the best tackles in the game ranking 12th and 15th respectively last season in Pro Football Focus’s pass blocking efficiency. Our model makes a 1.3-point adjustment if both players are unable to suit up providing an excellent matchup for Houston’s defensive front and their three All-Pro pass rushers.

Receiver Will Fuller practiced for the Texans this week and it looks like he may make his season debut in this game, which would take some of the pressure off DeAndre Hopkins, who saw mostly double-teams from the Patriots in week 1. Deshaun Watson and Fuller had a great connection in the 4 games they played together last year with 12.7 yards per target and 7 touchdowns. I expect the Texans offense to look much better this week if Fuller is in the lineup after averaging just 4.7 yards per play in New England. I thought the line on this game would be at pick but the odds makers made the proper adjustments and our model also has Houston by 2 points. Pass.

Team Stats
Game Log

Texans
Titans

HOU

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 36.0 32.0
Succ Pass Plays 39.2% 44.0%
Sack Rate 9.8% 4.6%
Int Rate 3.1% 1.3%
Deep Pass Rate 29.5% 19.8%
Big Pass Yards 36.9% 37.5%
NYPP 6.3 7.2

Rush

Rush Plays 30.5 32.5
RB YPR 4.7 3.5
Stuff Rate 18.6% 12.2%
Succ Rush Plays 44.0% 37.0%
Big Rush Yards 51.2% 24.5%
Yards Per Rush 5.2 3.4

Game

All Snaps 66.5 64.5
Early Down Succ 44.6% 41.2%
Succ Rate 41.7% 40.6%
Big Yards Rate 45.3% 33.0%
Yards Per Play 5.8 5.2
Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 1.4%
Time Per Play (sec) 26.6 29.0
Run Ratio 45.6% 51.4%
Starting Field Pos 31.0 24.3
Game Control -8.5 8.5

Points 18.5 23.5

TEN

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 30.5 32.0
Succ Pass Plays 38.0% 51.9%
Sack Rate 2.2% 7.4%
Int Rate 3.9% 5.2%
Deep Pass Rate 17.4% 24.9%
Big Pass Yards 25.1% 50.0%
NYPP 6.9 8.0

Rush

Rush Plays 31.5 28.0
RB YPR 3.5 4.6
Stuff Rate 16.0% 19.1%
Succ Rush Plays 40.1% 47.8%
Big Rush Yards 17.7% 46.1%
Yards Per Rush 3.5 4.9

Game

All Snaps 62.0 60.0
Early Down Succ 38.1% 56.3%
Succ Rate 38.6% 50.1%
Big Yards Rate 22.4% 48.7%
Yards Per Play 5.0 6.5
Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.3 30.0
Run Ratio 51.5% 46.7%
Starting Field Pos 26.2 31.0
Game Control 1.5 -1.5

Points 18.5 22.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NE	20 – 27 L	-10.6	29.7% / 48.8%	8.1% / 4.9%	2.9% / 2.6%	4.3 / 6.5	45.7% / 38.7%	25.7% / 9.7%	4.8 / 3.9	72 / 72	43.1% / 47.4%	37.5% / 44.4%	37.4% / 38.0%	4.5 / 5.4	1.4% / 2.8%	48.6% / 43.1%	35.4 / 25.4
2	@TEN	17 – 20 L	-6.4	48.6% / 39.1%	11.4% / 4.3%	3.2% / 0.0%	8.3 / 8.0	42.3% / 35.3%	11.5% / 14.7%	5.7 / 2.9	61 / 57	46.0% / 35.0%	45.9% / 36.8%	53.1% / 27.9%	7.2 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	42.6% / 59.6%	26.6 / 23.2

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@MIA	17 – 27 L	-3.5	36.8% / 55.2%	0.0% / 3.4%	7.9% / 7.1%	5.8 / 7.7	44.8% / 53.3%	17.2% / 26.7%	4.0 / 4.1	67 / 59	41.2% / 66.7%	40.3% / 54.2%	17.0% / 44.3%	5.0 / 5.8	0.0% / 0.0%	43.3% / 50.8%	29.2 / 35.5
2	HOU	20 – 17 W	6.4	39.1% / 48.6%	4.3% / 11.4%	0.0% / 3.2%	8.0 / 8.3	35.3% / 42.3%	14.7% / 11.5%	2.9 / 5.7	57 / 61	35.0% / 46.0%	36.8% / 45.9%	27.9% / 53.1%	5.0 / 7.2	0.0% / 0.0%	59.6% / 42.6%	23.2 / 26.6

Houston Texans @

Tennessee Titans

Sun, Sep 16

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis