Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *PITTSBURGH (+3.5 -115) over Houston

Strong Opinion – Jonnu Smith (PITT) OVER 1.5 Receptions (-155) to -165 odds

Lean – Under (39.5)

• Most offenses have to change their regular game plan against Houston’s defense. Pittsburgh does not. The Texans have a 42% pressure rate (2nd) but the Steelers rank 2nd in pass blocking efficiency partially because Aaron Rodgers has a 2.57-second Average Time to Throw (3rd-fastest).
• Pittsburgh’s offense is targeting running backs on 25.4% of passes (2nd-most), and RB Kenneth Gainwell is averaging 1.47 yards per route run (4th). Additionally, TE Jonnu Smith has 13 screen targets (3rd). The Steelers lead the NFL averaging 6.5 yards after the catch and Houston’s defense will struggle against the screens as the Texans have missed the 9th-most tackles on throws with less than 10 air yards.
• Rodgers will dissect a predictable Houston front with a league-high 80% standard pass rush rate. Pittsburgh’s offense ranks 2nd, relatively, versus a standard pass rush compared to the blitz.
• Steelers’ wide receiver DK Metcalf will be back this week and he has significant value to the offense because his downfield ability is the only threat keeping opposing defenses from selling out against Pittsburgh’s short game. The Steelers are averaging 1.3 yppl more with Metcalf on the field compared to off the field.
• The Texans have the 6th-highest cover 4 rate and Metcalf will make them respect the deep ball, which will open up space underneath for quick passes. Pittsburgh’s offense is averaging 16% more yppp versus cover 4 compared to other coverages (7th).
• The Steelers allowed 0.09 EPA/play in the first 8 weeks of the year (25th) before moving Jalen Ramsey from nickelback to safety, and Pittsburgh’s defense conceded -0.03 EPA/play the rest of the season. CJ Stroud averaged just 5.3 yppp against defenses allowing negative EPA/play this year.
• Pittsburgh edge defender Alex Highsmith ranks 14th in pass rushing efficiency, and he will wreak havoc across from rookie LT Aireontae Ersery, who has surrendered 44 pressures (9th-most).
• Our model favors the Steelers by 1.2 points with a predicted total of 37.3 points.

Pittsburgh is a 1-Star Best Bet at +3 -110 odds or better (Strong Opinion at +3 -115).