Houston Texans @ Pittsburgh Steelers Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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PITTSBURGH (-4) vs Houston

The Texans easily have played the toughest schedule through two weeks, opening the season with the Chiefs and Ravens. Their schedule has been 2.8 points more difficult than any other team by our metrics and they have another tough matchup against Pittsburgh in a game in which Deshaun Watson may struggle.

The Steelers lead the league, by far, with a 58% blitz rate thus far and Watson is 0.6 yppp worse against the blitz in his career. Cameron Heyward and Stephon Tuitt rank 5th and 6th, respectively, in pass rushing efficiency among interior defenders while TJ Watt and Bud Dupree have combined for 27 pressures already off the edge. The Texans are 28th in pass block efficiency this season and facing the Steelers aggressive front could spell more trouble for them.

Furthermore, WR Will Fuller’s status is up in the air for Sunday’s game. Fuller’s ability to stretch the field is the key to Houston’s offense because it opens space up underneath. Fuller ranked 5th in the NFL with 32.9% of his targets having at least 20 air yards in 2019.

Ben Roethlisberger’s average target depth of 6.6 yards is the lowest of his career by a yard and a half. If Roethlisberger continues to avoid deep balls against Houston’s 30th-rated pass defense, I think it might be time for Steelers fans to start worrying about their quarterback.

Pittsburgh’s offensive line does get starting RG David DeCastro back on Sunday, but JJ Watt will be lining up across from backup RT Chukwuma Okorafor, which could create problems for Big Ben.

Our model favors the Steelers by 4.7 points, with a predicted total of 47.9 points.

Team Stats
Game Log

Texans
Steelers

HOU

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 38.0 30.5
Succ Pass Plays 55.3% 56.5%
Sack Rate 10.6% 8.7%
Int Rate 3.0% 0.0%
Deep Pass Rate 20.1% 14.0%
Big Pass Yards 31.5% 21.5%
NYPP 6.5 6.2

Rush

Rush Plays 19.5 35.5
RB YPR 4.1 6.0
Stuff Rate 13.4% 13.0%
Succ Rush Plays 47.2% 46.5%
Big Rush Yards 20.8% 55.9%
Yards Per Rush 4.2 5.5

Game

All Snaps 57.5 66.0
Early Down Succ 57.0% 52.8%
Succ Rate 53.0% 51.4%
Big Yards Rate 30.6% 38.5%
Yards Per Play 5.8 5.9
Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 0.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 26.1 31.8
Run Ratio 33.9% 53.8%
Starting Field Pos 23.1 32.5
Game Control -8.4 8.4

Points 18.0 33.5

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@KC	20 – 34 L	-8.0	55.6% / 66.7%	11.1% / 3.0%	3.1% / 0.0%	6.7 / 6.2	59.1% / 47.1%	9.1% / 20.6%	5.4 / 4.9	58 / 67	59.6% / 56.6%	56.9% / 56.7%	33.3% / 19.0%	6.2 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	37.9% / 50.7%	22.3 / 37.2
2	BAL	16 – 33 L	-8.9	55.0% / 46.4%	10.0% / 14.3%	2.8% / 0.0%	6.3 / 6.3	35.3% / 45.9%	17.6% / 5.4%	3.0 / 6.2	57 / 65	54.3% / 48.9%	49.1% / 46.2%	28.0% / 58.0%	5.3 / 6.3	1.8% / 0.0%	29.8% / 56.9%	23.8 / 27.8

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NYG	26 – 16 W	3.1	44.1% / 50.0%	5.9% / 6.8%	0.0% / 4.9%	6.1 / 6.0	36.7% / 25.0%	20.0% / 40.0%	4.7 / 1.5	64 / 64	36.2% / 38.3%	40.6% / 42.2%	35.8% / 31.6%	5.5 / 4.5	1.6% / 0.0%	46.9% / 31.3%	30.3 / 36.3
2	DEN	26 – 21 W	7.1	45.2% / 34.8%	2.4% / 15.2%	2.4% / 2.6%	7.2 / 4.7	40.9% / 42.3%	27.3% / 23.1%	5.0 / 4.0	64 / 72	51.0% / 40.0%	43.8% / 37.5%	49.5% / 57.4%	6.4 / 4.4	1.6% / 1.4%	34.4% / 36.1%	35.1 / 29.9

Houston Texans @

Pittsburgh Steelers

Sun, Sep 27

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis