Game Analysis
PHILADELPHIA (-1.5) vs HoustonÂ
The streaky play of Nick Foles continued last week as the Super Bowl MVP threw for 8.7 yards per pass play on Sunday night. However, it’s important to remember Foles is still gaining 5.9 yards per pass play for the season, a half yard below the league average. We have a decent sample size now of Philadelphia’s offense with both quarterbacks under center the last two seasons and Carson Wentz is at least 2 points better than Foles. Zack Ertz is on pace to break Tony Gonzalez’s tight end record of 155 targets in a single season and he has a favorable matchup against a Texans defense allowing 9.1 yards per target to opposing tight ends.
Houston targets wide receivers at the 4th-highest rate in the league and Philadelphia’s backup cornerbacks will struggle to stay with DeAndre Hopkins and Demaryius Thomas when Deshaun Watson has time in the pocket, which likely won’t be too often. The Texans have one of the worst tackle tandems in the NFL with Kendall Lamm and Julie’n Davenport, while the Eagles have racked up a league-high 176 pressures off the edge – led by Michael Bennett, Brandon Graham, and Chris Long.
Lamar Miller is questionable as Houston may not want to take a risk with his lingering ankle injury, but running back is one of the most replaceable positions in football and I expect Alfred Blue to have a solid outing. The Texans rushed up the middle more than any team this season, which could create problems for Philadelphia’s defense assuming Timmy Jernigan isn’t available again. Fletcher Cox is excellent rushing the passer but has ranked outside the top 50 run stop percentage each of the last two seasons.
Our model favors the Eagles by 1.1 with a predicted total of 45.5. That’s just not enough value on either the side or total to even have a lean in this game.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.3
38.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.3%
48.1%
-
Sack Rate
10.8%
7.6%
-
Int Rate
2.2%
2.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.2%
19.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
40.1%
40.0%
-
NYPP
7.1
6.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
30.6
25.1
-
RB YPR
3.6
3.2
-
Stuff Rate
23.8%
26.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.2%
40.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.6%
31.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.1
3.5
Game
-
All Snaps
63.9
63.7
-
Early Down Succ
47.1%
45.9%
-
Succ Rate
45.0%
44.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.8%
37.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.7
5.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
1.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.9
29.2
-
Run Ratio
47.9%
40.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.8
25.3
-
Game Control
2.7
-2.7
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.4
41.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
49.7%
49.3%
-
Sack Rate
6.8%
6.0%
-
Int Rate
1.9%
1.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.4%
19.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
34.6%
42.6%
-
NYPP
6.8
6.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.1
21.9
-
RB YPR
4.1
4.8
-
Stuff Rate
22.7%
27.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.8%
46.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
44.0%
52.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
5.0
Game
-
All Snaps
63.4
63.8
-
Early Down Succ
50.7%
49.8%
-
Succ Rate
48.4%
47.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.0%
47.0%
-
Yards Per Play
5.7
6.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.2%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.2
27.7
-
Run Ratio
39.1%
34.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.6
27.0
-
Game Control
-1.2
1.2
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@NE |
20 – 27 L |
-10.6 |
29.7% / 48.8% |
8.1% / 4.9% |
2.9% / 2.6% |
4.3 / 6.5 |
45.7% / 38.7% |
25.7% / 9.7% |
4.8 / 3.9 |
72 / 72 |
43.1% / 47.4% |
37.5% / 44.4% |
37.4% / 38.0% |
4.5 / 5.4 |
1.4% / 2.8% |
48.6% / 43.1% |
35.4 / 25.4 |
2 |
@TEN |
17 – 20 L |
-6.4 |
48.6% / 39.1% |
11.4% / 4.3% |
3.2% / 0.0% |
8.3 / 8.0 |
42.3% / 35.3% |
11.5% / 14.7% |
5.7 / 2.9 |
61 / 57 |
46.0% / 35.0% |
45.9% / 36.8% |
53.1% / 27.9% |
7.2 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
42.6% / 59.6% |
26.6 / 23.2 |
3 |
NYG |
22 – 27 L |
-7.6 |
53.7% / 60.6% |
7.3% / 12.1% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
9.0 / 8.0 |
42.1% / 32.1% |
36.8% / 25.0% |
3.1 / 4.1 |
60 / 61 |
50.0% / 47.8% |
50.0% / 47.5% |
53.4% / 41.3% |
7.1 / 6.2 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
31.7% / 45.9% |
28.9 / 22.2 |
4 |
@IND |
37 – 34 W |
6.7 |
55.3% / 48.5% |
14.9% / 6.1% |
2.5% / 0.0% |
7.4 / 6.6 |
42.9% / 41.2% |
28.6% / 41.2% |
3.4 / 2.4 |
82 / 83 |
49.2% / 44.6% |
50.0% / 47.0% |
37.1% / 26.6% |
5.7 / 5.8 |
0.0% / 2.4% |
42.7% / 20.5% |
33.4 / 24.1 |
5 |
DAL |
19 – 16 W |
-0.3 |
79.4% / 65.0% |
2.9% / 10.0% |
3.0% / 11.1% |
11.0 / 9.7 |
32.3% / 36.7% |
32.3% / 30.0% |
2.8 / 3.3 |
65 / 50 |
53.3% / 43.2% |
56.9% / 48.0% |
30.1% / 52.9% |
7.1 / 5.9 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
47.7% / 60.0% |
27.9 / 30.8 |
6 |
BUF |
20 – 13 W |
4.3 |
27.3% / 29.0% |
21.2% / 6.5% |
7.7% / 6.9% |
4.3 / 4.2 |
36.0% / 40.7% |
28.0% / 22.2% |
3.0 / 3.7 |
58 / 58 |
34.9% / 32.6% |
31.0% / 34.5% |
34.1% / 46.3% |
3.7 / 3.9 |
1.7% / 1.7% |
43.1% / 46.6% |
36.5 / 28.2 |
7 |
@JAC |
20 – 7 W |
12.6 |
36.0% / 45.7% |
4.0% / 8.7% |
0.0% / 2.4% |
5.2 / 4.1 |
51.3% / 31.8% |
12.8% / 27.3% |
3.7 / 3.2 |
64 / 68 |
47.7% / 41.7% |
45.3% / 41.2% |
21.2% / 13.1% |
4.3 / 3.8 |
0.0% / 2.9% |
60.9% / 32.4% |
36.3 / 20.0 |
8 |
MIA |
42 – 23 W |
7.4 |
45.0% / 40.0% |
0.0% / 5.0% |
0.0% / 2.6% |
12.0 / 6.4 |
38.9% / 64.0% |
19.4% / 20.0% |
5.3 / 4.6 |
56 / 65 |
39.0% / 54.9% |
41.1% / 49.2% |
64.0% / 34.3% |
7.6 / 5.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
64.3% / 38.5% |
29.7 / 25.3 |
9 |
@DEN |
19 – 17 W |
3.8 |
53.6% / 47.7% |
14.3% / 4.5% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.9 / 6.2 |
39.4% / 35.0% |
30.3% / 40.0% |
3.0 / 3.8 |
61 / 64 |
51.1% / 43.8% |
45.9% / 43.8% |
10.7% / 38.5% |
4.8 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
54.1% / 31.3% |
31.4 / 22.5 |
11 |
@WAS |
23 – 21 W |
4.8 |
51.9% / 35.7% |
11.1% / 11.9% |
8.3% / 5.4% |
6.7 / 3.7 |
40.6% / 58.6% |
18.8% / 13.8% |
4.4 / 4.3 |
59 / 71 |
50.0% / 45.5% |
45.8% / 45.1% |
44.2% / 19.4% |
5.4 / 3.9 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
54.2% / 40.8% |
31.8 / 34.4 |
12 |
TEN |
34 – 17 W |
8.6 |
66.7% / 48.3% |
14.8% / 20.7% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.7 / 9.0 |
45.7% / 34.8% |
8.6% / 26.1% |
8.1 / 4.6 |
62 / 52 |
60.4% / 46.2% |
54.8% / 42.3% |
57.9% / 55.6% |
7.5 / 7.0 |
0.0% / 1.9% |
56.5% / 44.2% |
25.7 / 24.8 |
13 |
CLE |
29 – 13 W |
14.2 |
45.7% / 58.5% |
11.4% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 7.3% |
5.6 / 9.7 |
47.5% / 55.6% |
7.5% / 33.3% |
4.7 / 3.4 |
75 / 50 |
47.4% / 63.4% |
46.7% / 58.0% |
37.1% / 52.6% |
5.1 / 8.6 |
0.0% / 2.0% |
53.3% / 18.0% |
29.5 / 19.9 |
14 |
IND |
21 – 24 L |
-3.4 |
39.5% / 58.1% |
11.6% / 4.7% |
0.0% / 2.4% |
5.3 / 9.0 |
44.0% / 30.8% |
28.0% / 26.9% |
3.6 / 2.0 |
68 / 69 |
41.2% / 55.8% |
41.2% / 47.8% |
45.1% / 49.0% |
4.6 / 6.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
36.8% / 37.7% |
22.3 / 25.3 |
15 |
@NYJ |
29 – 22 W |
3.8 |
44.1% / 48.8% |
17.6% / 7.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.0 / 5.6 |
27.8% / 35.5% |
44.4% / 35.5% |
2.7 / 2.9 |
52 / 72 |
46.3% / 40.4% |
38.5% / 43.1% |
74.2% / 34.3% |
5.5 / 4.4 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
34.6% / 43.1% |
35.6 / 28.5 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
ATL |
18 – 12 W |
-0.9 |
32.4% / 31.9% |
5.4% / 8.5% |
2.9% / 2.3% |
3.2 / 4.8 |
53.6% / 44.4% |
21.4% / 27.8% |
4.1 / 4.1 |
65 / 65 |
40.4% / 38.8% |
41.5% / 35.4% |
20.6% / 49.5% |
3.6 / 4.6 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
43.1% / 27.7% |
22.2 / 35.2 |
2 |
@TB |
21 – 27 L |
-11.1 |
42.0% / 60.0% |
6.0% / 5.7% |
0.0% / 3.0% |
6.4 / 11.2 |
54.2% / 25.0% |
20.8% / 41.7% |
3.8 / 1.8 |
74 / 59 |
48.1% / 48.9% |
45.9% / 45.8% |
36.2% / 45.3% |
5.6 / 7.4 |
2.7% / 1.7% |
32.4% / 40.7% |
25.5 / 27.2 |
3 |
IND |
20 – 16 W |
0.6 |
47.6% / 39.5% |
11.9% / 4.7% |
2.7% / 0.0% |
5.4 / 3.3 |
60.0% / 38.5% |
28.6% / 23.1% |
4.3 / 5.2 |
77 / 56 |
55.6% / 45.2% |
53.2% / 39.3% |
34.0% / 46.9% |
4.9 / 3.7 |
1.3% / 0.0% |
45.5% / 23.2% |
21.6 / 36.1 |
4 |
@TEN |
23 – 26 L |
2.6 |
46.3% / 47.8% |
7.4% / 6.5% |
0.0% / 2.3% |
5.8 / 7.1 |
36.4% / 39.1% |
13.6% / 34.8% |
5.3 / 3.1 |
76 / 69 |
45.9% / 47.9% |
43.4% / 44.9% |
41.0% / 38.9% |
5.7 / 5.8 |
1.3% / 0.0% |
28.9% / 33.3% |
28.0 / 24.4 |
5 |
MIN |
21 – 23 L |
-7.0 |
80.8% / 74.2% |
11.5% / 3.2% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
10.9 / 9.6 |
58.8% / 44.0% |
11.8% / 20.0% |
4.8 / 3.2 |
43 / 56 |
63.6% / 62.5% |
72.1% / 60.7% |
51.9% / 48.8% |
8.5 / 6.7 |
4.7% / 1.8% |
39.5% / 44.6% |
30.9 / 27.0 |
6 |
@NYG |
34 – 13 W |
14.8 |
48.6% / 34.0% |
2.7% / 8.5% |
0.0% / 2.3% |
7.3 / 5.4 |
51.6% / 52.9% |
16.1% / 17.6% |
3.5 / 8.6 |
68 / 64 |
48.1% / 42.9% |
50.0% / 39.1% |
32.7% / 58.4% |
5.6 / 6.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
45.6% / 26.6% |
31.4 / 25.5 |
7 |
CAR |
17 – 21 L |
6.8 |
51.2% / 51.2% |
9.8% / 4.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.9 / 6.1 |
54.2% / 61.1% |
25.0% / 16.7% |
2.4 / 6.8 |
65 / 59 |
57.1% / 57.8% |
52.3% / 54.2% |
37.7% / 50.0% |
5.3 / 6.3 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
36.9% / 30.5% |
19.8 / 26.3 |
8 |
@JAC |
24 – 18 W |
2.2 |
52.9% / 44.4% |
11.8% / 8.9% |
3.3% / 0.0% |
7.7 / 5.9 |
41.9% / 64.7% |
12.9% / 17.6% |
4.4 / 4.1 |
65 / 62 |
50.0% / 52.2% |
47.7% / 50.0% |
62.6% / 34.3% |
6.1 / 5.4 |
1.5% / 1.6% |
47.7% / 27.4% |
26.9 / 29.0 |
10 |
DAL |
20 – 27 L |
-4.0 |
55.6% / 50.0% |
4.4% / 10.0% |
2.3% / 0.0% |
7.8 / 6.0 |
56.3% / 46.4% |
31.3% / 21.4% |
4.4 / 6.1 |
61 / 68 |
61.2% / 47.1% |
55.7% / 48.5% |
32.1% / 50.2% |
6.9 / 6.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
26.2% / 41.2% |
32.3 / 25.6 |
11 |
@NO |
7 – 48 L |
-20.4 |
36.1% / 68.8% |
8.3% / 0.0% |
9.1% / 0.0% |
3.8 / 11.7 |
58.3% / 44.7% |
25.0% / 26.3% |
4.8 / 4.6 |
48 / 70 |
47.2% / 57.1% |
41.7% / 55.7% |
14.3% / 56.5% |
4.1 / 7.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
25.0% / 54.3% |
25.1 / 27.2 |
12 |
NYG |
25 – 22 W |
-6.0 |
51.6% / 48.7% |
9.7% / 5.1% |
0.0% / 2.7% |
6.9 / 7.1 |
40.0% / 44.4% |
26.7% / 27.8% |
4.3 / 7.0 |
61 / 57 |
51.1% / 48.9% |
45.9% / 47.4% |
42.4% / 48.3% |
5.6 / 7.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
49.2% / 31.6% |
31.1 / 23.9 |
13 |
WAS |
28 – 13 W |
4.3 |
59.0% / 25.0% |
0.0% / 10.7% |
2.6% / 4.0% |
7.8 / 4.7 |
32.4% / 35.7% |
18.9% / 42.9% |
3.6 / 7.4 |
76 / 42 |
50.9% / 31.3% |
46.1% / 28.6% |
41.1% / 60.4% |
5.8 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
48.7% / 33.3% |
30.0 / 23.0 |
14 |
@DAL |
23 – 29 L |
-3.1 |
52.9% / 57.9% |
5.9% / 5.3% |
0.0% / 3.7% |
6.5 / 7.6 |
21.4% / 50.0% |
42.9% / 27.8% |
2.4 / 3.9 |
48 / 93 |
50.0% / 54.8% |
43.8% / 54.8% |
45.7% / 38.0% |
5.3 / 6.2 |
2.1% / 1.1% |
29.2% / 38.7% |
36.4 / 22.6 |
15 |
@LA |
30 – 23 W |
4.8 |
38.7% / 56.4% |
0.0% / 1.8% |
3.2% / 3.7% |
8.7 / 6.0 |
36.7% / 55.6% |
23.3% / 33.3% |
3.7 / 4.6 |
61 / 73 |
40.4% / 61.7% |
37.7% / 56.2% |
39.6% / 32.2% |
6.2 / 5.7 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
49.2% / 24.7% |
38.8 / 25.4 |