Houston Texans @ Philadelphia Eagles Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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PHILADELPHIA (-1.5) vs Houston

The streaky play of Nick Foles continued last week as the Super Bowl MVP threw for 8.7 yards per pass play on Sunday night. However, it’s important to remember Foles is still gaining 5.9 yards per pass play for the season, a half yard below the league average. We have a decent sample size now of Philadelphia’s offense with both quarterbacks under center the last two seasons and Carson Wentz is at least 2 points better than Foles. Zack Ertz is on pace to break Tony Gonzalez’s tight end record of 155 targets in a single season and he has a favorable matchup against a Texans defense allowing 9.1 yards per target to opposing tight ends.

Houston targets wide receivers at the 4th-highest rate in the league and Philadelphia’s backup cornerbacks will struggle to stay with DeAndre Hopkins and Demaryius Thomas when Deshaun Watson has time in the pocket, which likely won’t be too often. The Texans have one of the worst tackle tandems in the NFL with Kendall Lamm and Julie’n Davenport, while the Eagles have racked up a league-high 176 pressures off the edge – led by Michael Bennett, Brandon Graham, and Chris Long.

Lamar Miller is questionable as Houston may not want to take a risk with his lingering ankle injury, but running back is one of the most replaceable positions in football and I expect Alfred Blue to have a solid outing. The Texans rushed up the middle more than any team this season, which could create problems for Philadelphia’s defense assuming Timmy Jernigan isn’t available again. Fletcher Cox is excellent rushing the passer but has ranked outside the top 50 run stop percentage each of the last two seasons.

Our model favors the Eagles by 1.1 with a predicted total of 45.5. That’s just not enough value on either the side or total to even have a lean in this game.

Team Stats
Game Log

Texans
Eagles

HOU

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 33.3 38.6
Succ Pass Plays 48.3% 48.1%
Sack Rate 10.8% 7.6%
Int Rate 2.2% 2.9%
Deep Pass Rate 17.2% 19.0%
Big Pass Yards 40.1% 40.0%
NYPP 7.1 6.9

Rush

Rush Plays 30.6 25.1
RB YPR 3.6 3.2
Stuff Rate 23.8% 26.1%
Succ Rush Plays 41.2% 40.8%
Big Rush Yards 42.6% 31.3%
Yards Per Rush 4.1 3.5

Game

All Snaps 63.9 63.7
Early Down Succ 47.1% 45.9%
Succ Rate 45.0% 44.9%
Big Yards Rate 42.8% 37.8%
Yards Per Play 5.7 5.5
Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 1.2%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.9 29.2
Run Ratio 47.9% 40.1%
Starting Field Pos 30.8 25.3
Game Control 2.7 -2.7

Points 25.1 20.1

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NE	20 – 27 L	-10.6	29.7% / 48.8%	8.1% / 4.9%	2.9% / 2.6%	4.3 / 6.5	45.7% / 38.7%	25.7% / 9.7%	4.8 / 3.9	72 / 72	43.1% / 47.4%	37.5% / 44.4%	37.4% / 38.0%	4.5 / 5.4	1.4% / 2.8%	48.6% / 43.1%	35.4 / 25.4
2	@TEN	17 – 20 L	-6.4	48.6% / 39.1%	11.4% / 4.3%	3.2% / 0.0%	8.3 / 8.0	42.3% / 35.3%	11.5% / 14.7%	5.7 / 2.9	61 / 57	46.0% / 35.0%	45.9% / 36.8%	53.1% / 27.9%	7.2 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	42.6% / 59.6%	26.6 / 23.2
3	NYG	22 – 27 L	-7.6	53.7% / 60.6%	7.3% / 12.1%	2.6% / 0.0%	9.0 / 8.0	42.1% / 32.1%	36.8% / 25.0%	3.1 / 4.1	60 / 61	50.0% / 47.8%	50.0% / 47.5%	53.4% / 41.3%	7.1 / 6.2	1.7% / 0.0%	31.7% / 45.9%	28.9 / 22.2
4	@IND	37 – 34 W	6.7	55.3% / 48.5%	14.9% / 6.1%	2.5% / 0.0%	7.4 / 6.6	42.9% / 41.2%	28.6% / 41.2%	3.4 / 2.4	82 / 83	49.2% / 44.6%	50.0% / 47.0%	37.1% / 26.6%	5.7 / 5.8	0.0% / 2.4%	42.7% / 20.5%	33.4 / 24.1
5	DAL	19 – 16 W	-0.3	79.4% / 65.0%	2.9% / 10.0%	3.0% / 11.1%	11.0 / 9.7	32.3% / 36.7%	32.3% / 30.0%	2.8 / 3.3	65 / 50	53.3% / 43.2%	56.9% / 48.0%	30.1% / 52.9%	7.1 / 5.9	1.5% / 0.0%	47.7% / 60.0%	27.9 / 30.8
6	BUF	20 – 13 W	4.3	27.3% / 29.0%	21.2% / 6.5%	7.7% / 6.9%	4.3 / 4.2	36.0% / 40.7%	28.0% / 22.2%	3.0 / 3.7	58 / 58	34.9% / 32.6%	31.0% / 34.5%	34.1% / 46.3%	3.7 / 3.9	1.7% / 1.7%	43.1% / 46.6%	36.5 / 28.2
7	@JAC	20 – 7 W	12.6	36.0% / 45.7%	4.0% / 8.7%	0.0% / 2.4%	5.2 / 4.1	51.3% / 31.8%	12.8% / 27.3%	3.7 / 3.2	64 / 68	47.7% / 41.7%	45.3% / 41.2%	21.2% / 13.1%	4.3 / 3.8	0.0% / 2.9%	60.9% / 32.4%	36.3 / 20.0
8	MIA	42 – 23 W	7.4	45.0% / 40.0%	0.0% / 5.0%	0.0% / 2.6%	12.0 / 6.4	38.9% / 64.0%	19.4% / 20.0%	5.3 / 4.6	56 / 65	39.0% / 54.9%	41.1% / 49.2%	64.0% / 34.3%	7.6 / 5.7	0.0% / 0.0%	64.3% / 38.5%	29.7 / 25.3
9	@DEN	19 – 17 W	3.8	53.6% / 47.7%	14.3% / 4.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.9 / 6.2	39.4% / 35.0%	30.3% / 40.0%	3.0 / 3.8	61 / 64	51.1% / 43.8%	45.9% / 43.8%	10.7% / 38.5%	4.8 / 5.4	0.0% / 1.6%	54.1% / 31.3%	31.4 / 22.5
11	@WAS	23 – 21 W	4.8	51.9% / 35.7%	11.1% / 11.9%	8.3% / 5.4%	6.7 / 3.7	40.6% / 58.6%	18.8% / 13.8%	4.4 / 4.3	59 / 71	50.0% / 45.5%	45.8% / 45.1%	44.2% / 19.4%	5.4 / 3.9	1.7% / 0.0%	54.2% / 40.8%	31.8 / 34.4
12	TEN	34 – 17 W	8.6	66.7% / 48.3%	14.8% / 20.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.7 / 9.0	45.7% / 34.8%	8.6% / 26.1%	8.1 / 4.6	62 / 52	60.4% / 46.2%	54.8% / 42.3%	57.9% / 55.6%	7.5 / 7.0	0.0% / 1.9%	56.5% / 44.2%	25.7 / 24.8
13	CLE	29 – 13 W	14.2	45.7% / 58.5%	11.4% / 0.0%	0.0% / 7.3%	5.6 / 9.7	47.5% / 55.6%	7.5% / 33.3%	4.7 / 3.4	75 / 50	47.4% / 63.4%	46.7% / 58.0%	37.1% / 52.6%	5.1 / 8.6	0.0% / 2.0%	53.3% / 18.0%	29.5 / 19.9
14	IND	21 – 24 L	-3.4	39.5% / 58.1%	11.6% / 4.7%	0.0% / 2.4%	5.3 / 9.0	44.0% / 30.8%	28.0% / 26.9%	3.6 / 2.0	68 / 69	41.2% / 55.8%	41.2% / 47.8%	45.1% / 49.0%	4.6 / 6.4	0.0% / 0.0%	36.8% / 37.7%	22.3 / 25.3
15	@NYJ	29 – 22 W	3.8	44.1% / 48.8%	17.6% / 7.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.0 / 5.6	27.8% / 35.5%	44.4% / 35.5%	2.7 / 2.9	52 / 72	46.3% / 40.4%	38.5% / 43.1%	74.2% / 34.3%	5.5 / 4.4	0.0% / 1.4%	34.6% / 43.1%	35.6 / 28.5

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	ATL	18 – 12 W	-0.9	32.4% / 31.9%	5.4% / 8.5%	2.9% / 2.3%	3.2 / 4.8	53.6% / 44.4%	21.4% / 27.8%	4.1 / 4.1	65 / 65	40.4% / 38.8%	41.5% / 35.4%	20.6% / 49.5%	3.6 / 4.6	1.5% / 0.0%	43.1% / 27.7%	22.2 / 35.2
2	@TB	21 – 27 L	-11.1	42.0% / 60.0%	6.0% / 5.7%	0.0% / 3.0%	6.4 / 11.2	54.2% / 25.0%	20.8% / 41.7%	3.8 / 1.8	74 / 59	48.1% / 48.9%	45.9% / 45.8%	36.2% / 45.3%	5.6 / 7.4	2.7% / 1.7%	32.4% / 40.7%	25.5 / 27.2
3	IND	20 – 16 W	0.6	47.6% / 39.5%	11.9% / 4.7%	2.7% / 0.0%	5.4 / 3.3	60.0% / 38.5%	28.6% / 23.1%	4.3 / 5.2	77 / 56	55.6% / 45.2%	53.2% / 39.3%	34.0% / 46.9%	4.9 / 3.7	1.3% / 0.0%	45.5% / 23.2%	21.6 / 36.1
4	@TEN	23 – 26 L	2.6	46.3% / 47.8%	7.4% / 6.5%	0.0% / 2.3%	5.8 / 7.1	36.4% / 39.1%	13.6% / 34.8%	5.3 / 3.1	76 / 69	45.9% / 47.9%	43.4% / 44.9%	41.0% / 38.9%	5.7 / 5.8	1.3% / 0.0%	28.9% / 33.3%	28.0 / 24.4
5	MIN	21 – 23 L	-7.0	80.8% / 74.2%	11.5% / 3.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	10.9 / 9.6	58.8% / 44.0%	11.8% / 20.0%	4.8 / 3.2	43 / 56	63.6% / 62.5%	72.1% / 60.7%	51.9% / 48.8%	8.5 / 6.7	4.7% / 1.8%	39.5% / 44.6%	30.9 / 27.0
6	@NYG	34 – 13 W	14.8	48.6% / 34.0%	2.7% / 8.5%	0.0% / 2.3%	7.3 / 5.4	51.6% / 52.9%	16.1% / 17.6%	3.5 / 8.6	68 / 64	48.1% / 42.9%	50.0% / 39.1%	32.7% / 58.4%	5.6 / 6.3	0.0% / 0.0%	45.6% / 26.6%	31.4 / 25.5
7	CAR	17 – 21 L	6.8	51.2% / 51.2%	9.8% / 4.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.9 / 6.1	54.2% / 61.1%	25.0% / 16.7%	2.4 / 6.8	65 / 59	57.1% / 57.8%	52.3% / 54.2%	37.7% / 50.0%	5.3 / 6.3	1.5% / 0.0%	36.9% / 30.5%	19.8 / 26.3
8	@JAC	24 – 18 W	2.2	52.9% / 44.4%	11.8% / 8.9%	3.3% / 0.0%	7.7 / 5.9	41.9% / 64.7%	12.9% / 17.6%	4.4 / 4.1	65 / 62	50.0% / 52.2%	47.7% / 50.0%	62.6% / 34.3%	6.1 / 5.4	1.5% / 1.6%	47.7% / 27.4%	26.9 / 29.0
10	DAL	20 – 27 L	-4.0	55.6% / 50.0%	4.4% / 10.0%	2.3% / 0.0%	7.8 / 6.0	56.3% / 46.4%	31.3% / 21.4%	4.4 / 6.1	61 / 68	61.2% / 47.1%	55.7% / 48.5%	32.1% / 50.2%	6.9 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	26.2% / 41.2%	32.3 / 25.6
11	@NO	7 – 48 L	-20.4	36.1% / 68.8%	8.3% / 0.0%	9.1% / 0.0%	3.8 / 11.7	58.3% / 44.7%	25.0% / 26.3%	4.8 / 4.6	48 / 70	47.2% / 57.1%	41.7% / 55.7%	14.3% / 56.5%	4.1 / 7.8	0.0% / 0.0%	25.0% / 54.3%	25.1 / 27.2
12	NYG	25 – 22 W	-6.0	51.6% / 48.7%	9.7% / 5.1%	0.0% / 2.7%	6.9 / 7.1	40.0% / 44.4%	26.7% / 27.8%	4.3 / 7.0	61 / 57	51.1% / 48.9%	45.9% / 47.4%	42.4% / 48.3%	5.6 / 7.1	0.0% / 0.0%	49.2% / 31.6%	31.1 / 23.9
13	WAS	28 – 13 W	4.3	59.0% / 25.0%	0.0% / 10.7%	2.6% / 4.0%	7.8 / 4.7	32.4% / 35.7%	18.9% / 42.9%	3.6 / 7.4	76 / 42	50.9% / 31.3%	46.1% / 28.6%	41.1% / 60.4%	5.8 / 5.6	0.0% / 0.0%	48.7% / 33.3%	30.0 / 23.0
14	@DAL	23 – 29 L	-3.1	52.9% / 57.9%	5.9% / 5.3%	0.0% / 3.7%	6.5 / 7.6	21.4% / 50.0%	42.9% / 27.8%	2.4 / 3.9	48 / 93	50.0% / 54.8%	43.8% / 54.8%	45.7% / 38.0%	5.3 / 6.2	2.1% / 1.1%	29.2% / 38.7%	36.4 / 22.6
15	@LA	30 – 23 W	4.8	38.7% / 56.4%	0.0% / 1.8%	3.2% / 3.7%	8.7 / 6.0	36.7% / 55.6%	23.3% / 33.3%	3.7 / 4.6	61 / 73	40.4% / 61.7%	37.7% / 56.2%	39.6% / 32.2%	6.2 / 5.7	0.0% / 1.4%	49.2% / 24.7%	38.8 / 25.4

Houston Texans @

Philadelphia Eagles

Sun, Dec 23

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis