Game Analysis
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Lean – NY JETS (-2) over Houston
- CJ Stroud is averaging only 0.03 EPA/play since week 5 (23rd) when WR Nico Collins tweaked his hamstring forcing him on the IR. Collins was averaging 0.86 EPA/target (2nd) and his loss looms larger now with Stefon Diggs tearing his ACL. Diggs is averaging 1.84 yards per route run (20th). The cluster loss at wide receiver is significant to the Texans’ aerial attack.
- Texans LG Kenyon Green ranks 3rd-worst in pass blocking efficiency and he will struggle across from interior defender Quinnen Williams, who has 24 pressures (6th).
- Jets edge rusher Will McDonald has 26 pressures (19th) but he will be contained by LT Laremy Tunsil, who ranks 2nd in pass blocking efficiency.
- Houston edge defender Danielle Hunter’s 12 pressures last week were the 2nd-most pressures in a game this season but he will be limited by RT Morgan Moses, who ranks 4th in pass blocking efficiency.
- However, Aaron Rodgers isn’t off the hook in terms of protection. Jets right guard Alijah Vera-Tucker ranks 8th in pass blocking efficiency but he is out along with backup Xavier Newman. Texans interior defender Tim Settle ranks 5th in pass-rushing efficiency and he will wreak havoc across from third-string Jake Hanson, who surrendered a sack last week in his first start.
- New York’s aging LT Tyron Smith has surrendered 22 pressures (5th-most) and he will struggle versus edge defender Will Anderson, who ranks 8th in pass-rushing efficiency.
- Rodgers will want to get the ball out quickly to his running backs to negate the pass rush and Houston’s defense will be without starting linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair. RB Breece Hall is averaging 1.56 yards per route run (3rd).
- Jets WR Davante Adams might struggle across from CB Derek Stingley, who is allowing 0.78 yards per cover snap (18th).
- I could see a ton of targets going to New York wide receiver Garrett Wilson given the loss of WR Allen Lazard, who is averaging 0.67 EPA/target (4th).
- Our model favors the Jets by 2.6 with a predicted total of 41.6.